Notre Dame Football: How the Irish Can Play in the BCS Title Game Soon
Since Notre Dame's disheartening loss to Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl, hopes seem to have dimmed just a bit around South Bend.
Incoming Ohio State coach Urban Meyer poached a pair of position coaches from Brian Kelly's staff, Gunner Kiel committed to LSU and highly touted cornerback recruit Ronald Darby reopened his recruiting, decommitting from the Irish.
Ending the season with two losses is bound to derail a program's momentum in its own right, but to do it in the same frustrating way that cost the team four previous contests this season is simply depressing.
It certainly feels as thought the balloon has popped. That all the momentum that the program carried following the end of the 2010 campaign has been halted.
All that remains is frustration.
Tonight in New Orleans, No. 1 Louisiana State and No. 2 Alabama will play for the BCS National Championship. The game feels a million miles away from where the Notre Dame program stands today.
Still, at Notre Dame, there is no other prize to hunt—no other measure of an Irish team against history than a championship. No conference to play for, no Rose Bowl to win. The challenge is to win it all, or to fail.
So, how far off are the Irish?
Going into 2012, Notre Dame loses all-everything wideout Michael Floyd, late-blooming running back Jonas Gray and only a small handful of other key contributors.
Manti Te'o and Tyler Eifert will each return, along with talent to equal any member of the stout defenses playing in tonight's contest.
Notre Dame has talent, speed, and it managed to largely control the line of scrimmage against every opponent this year.
Not a single opponent out-matched the Irish, yet five of them left the field victorious. Notre Dame still fails at winning despite being a talented team.
Tonight's championship participants have mastered the concept of closing, a lesson Notre Dame must quickly learn.
From a numbers standpoint, LSU and Alabama aren't so amazing offensively.
They rank 105th and 71st in passing, respectively, while Notre Dame sits 40th. They both run the ball far better than Notre Dame, with LSU ranking 17th, Alabama 14th and the Irish trailing at 54th.
Total offense is also comparable. LSU falls last, totaling 375 yards per game. Alabama is most prolific, earning 433 yards per game, and the Irish are in the middle with 413 yards per game.
Where the big differences begin to emerge is in scoring. Notre Dame, despite being right there with the nations's top two teams offensively, ranks 49th in points with 29 per game. LSU stands 12th with 38.5, and Alabama is 17th with 36.
Defensively, Alabama ranks first in the nation, surrendering only 8.8 points per game. LSU is just behind, giving up only 10.5. The Irish are a very respectable 24th, allowing 20.7 points per game.
The primary explanation as to the difference in scoring and defensive numbers can truly boil down to one statistic: turnovers.
LSU committed only seven giveaways all year—four interceptions, three fumbles.
Alabama committed only 10, throwing eight picks and losing a pair of fumbles.
Tommy Rees alone is responsible for 17 (14 interceptions and three lost fumbles). As a team, Notre Dame allowed an unreal 26 turnovers—17 interceptions and nine lost fumbles.
That alone will prevent a great team from winning.
Some of that hopefully will be corrected next season just by having someone other than Tommy Rees at quarterback, and some will be corrected simply by the fact that a couple of the turnovers (say, two 99-yard fumble returns for touchdowns) can't happen again. No one team's luck is that bad!
Championship level football not only requires talent, but it requires that the talent perform at the highest level possible.
This year, Notre Dame did not.
From a player personnel standpoint, a serious upgrade in the defensive secondary is in order. Brian Kelly's recruiting efforts must continue on that front.
Notre Dame currently has the No. 7 corner in the nation committed in Tee Sheppard, as well as the No. 7 safety in Elijah Shumate. It is essential that both enroll and are in uniform next season, as they each have a chance to start.
Sixth-ranked corner Ronald Darby likewise would see significant action as a freshman if Kelly can pull a "lynch" and reel him back from Florida State.
Kelly has also landed top-20 defensive line recruits Jaron Jones and Sheldon Day. Possibly joining them is No. 4 D-line prospect Arik Armstead and his brother USC transfer end Armond.
The talent level compared to LSU and Alabama isn't as wide as the win/loss records suggest, and the Irish are catching up rather well.
If Notre Dame had not so often committed football suicide with a ton of red-zone turnovers, we are discussing a 10-2 BCS team, rather than a disappointing 8-5 squad.
There is certainly still distance between the teams playing for this year's championship and Notre Dame, but if Brian Kelly can hold his recruits and prevent self-inflicted wounds in 2012, the gap may not be as great as you think.
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