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NFL Playoff Predictions: How Home Field Will Affect Every Divisional Game

Andrea HangstJun 7, 2018

All four home teams won their respective Wild Card Round playoff games this week.

While playing at home may have had little effect on the ultimate victor of each game, it does warrant some discussion about whether home field really does give a team a boost.

Here are my predictions for how home-field advantage will—or will not—affect the four divisional round playoff games scheduled for this Saturday and Sunday.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

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The New Orleans Saints boast the highest-scoring and most-productive offense in the league, while the San Francisco 49ers have the strongest defense in the NFC.

When these two teams meet on Saturday, it will mark one of the most compelling playoff matchups of the year, and it should only benefit the inexperienced 49ers to play this game on their home turf.

The Saints are undefeated in the Superdome, their three regular-season losses coming on the road. The Niners have won all but one home game this year, and it's likely that the thundering crowd at Candlestick Park will play a role in the team's performance this week.

What San Francisco needs to do is hold the Saints under 30 points, because to reach that mark themselves isn't likely—they've scored over 30 points just twice this year. It's more possible for the team to do this on their home field rather than in New Orleans.

A friendly crowd might be just what the underdog 49ers need to overcome the powerhouse Saints this week; in the Superdome, they'd have little chance.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

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There's little pleasant about having to play a postseason game in Foxboro against the New England Patriots, but the Denver Broncos are set to do just that on Saturday night.

The Patriots have lost one game at home in the regular season, and since 2001, they are 10-2 in home playoff games, those two losses coming in 2009 and 2010.

Few teams have had as much success in the postseason as the Patriots, and it's going to be tough for the Broncos—or any team—to defeat the AFC's top seed this year.

In their Wild Card Round win, the Broncos benefited both from a hometown crowd and an astonishingly effective passing performance by quarterback Tim Tebow. Though the latter may repeat on Saturday night, the former won't be there to help the team's efforts.

It's an overwhelming game no matter where it's played, but it's not going to help Denver to have to play the Patriots on the road this week.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

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Playing the Cincinnati Bengals at home was the best thing to happen to the Houston Texans in the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs, but this week, they will have to travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens and their league-leading defense.

Houston proved that even with backup quarterback T.J. Yates under center, the Texans are capable of winning convincingly in the postseason. They have a strong defense of their own and one of the best rushing games in the league.

They'll have to pull out all the stops to beat the Ravens on Sunday. The Ravens have yet to lose a game at home, and their rabid fanbase has been extremely effective in assisting that effort.

Baltimore fans know what it takes to throw opposing offenses off their games. With an inexperienced starting quarterback, the Texans are particularly susceptible to the distraction a raucous crowd presents.

The Ravens have a number of distinct advantages in the divisional round, but the fact that they're the home team is a major one.

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New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

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No matter where this Sunday afternoon's game between the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers is played, the Packers would have a significant advantage.

At 15-1 in the regular season, the defending Super Bowl champion Packers are still heavy favorites to repeat this season, and that has much to do with their ability to remain strong whether at home or on the road.

Their single loss was notched as a visiting team; at home, they are undefeated. But if there is any team in this year's playoffs that is unaffected by the venue in which they play, it's the Packers.

The Giants went 5-3 on the road in the regular season and generally seem unfazed by playing outside of their home stadium. However, having to travel to Lambeau in the playoffs is a different beast entirely, and it's going to be an intimidating scene for the NFC East underdogs.

The Packers are just so dominant and so adept at putting up points, that it's not going to matter where this game is played on Sunday. The Giants could be overwhelmed by the scene in Green Bay, but that won't be the reason they fall to the Packers this week.

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