2008 MLB Preview: AL West

The AL West is boring. There I said it.

I mean, what kind of division has four teams? Honestly, how can you be excited about a team that goes through a fire-sale every three years?

The A’s used to be my favorite team in the AL West, but because their turnover rate on players is so high I just got frustrated and moved on. I mean, I loved Nick Swisher in an A’s uniform, but apparently he’s worth more to the A’s in the form of prospects than production.

I understand the "small budget team" mentality, but you have to admit it is frustrating.

The Texas Rangers...it’s hot there. I’m Canadian. I like the cold and the snow. Enough said. (I got the stereotype police called on me for this one.)

The Seattle Mariners may be the most successful buyers in the AL West this offseason and all they did was get Erik Bedard.

But then you go and look at the Anaheim Angels (division champs three of the past four years) who just buy more offense, and that just offsets anything the other teams try to do to compete.

And they somehow win with one of the Weaver brothers on their roster. Who knew?

OK, my bitter rant (and unjust Eastern bias) just to get everyone fired up is over. Let’s get to the preview (reverse order again this time).

Oakland Athletics (2007 Results: 76-86, 3rd in AL West)

Well, the Moneyball theorem is hard at work again in Oakland this year.

Just like Mark Mulder, Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Barry Zito, and Tim Hudson before them, expensive (and soon-to-be expensive) veterans such as Nick Swisher, Marco Scutaro, Dan Haren, and Mark Kotsay were shipped out of town via trades, and Shannon Stewart, Mike Piazza, and Jeff DaVanon were left to determine their own destinies.

Nothing out of the ordinary here—Billy Beane does this about ever three or four years.

It’s not to say that after a fire-sale of sorts the Oakland Athletics are in a bad position (for the future), but it’s a position that the Tampa Bay Rays have found themselves in the past few years in the AL East, and I’m guessing the Rays don’t like it too much.

It’s called the basement.

To start, their outfield is comprised of three relatively untested players—Chris Denorfia, Travis Buck, and Emil Brown. Chris Denorfia has only 144 career at-bats in the Majors, Travis Buck is a second-year pro who had a fairly productive rookie year (a .288 average is something most hitters can only dream of), and Emil Brown has been to seven different MLB organizations. After 619 games elsewhere (.262 career average, 46 homers, and 261 RBI) he is back with the team that drafted him.

Unless you’re a diehard A’s fan, you may only recognize these guys from MLB 06: The Show.

Throw into that Ryan Sweeney (who’s seen even less major league time than Denorfia or Buck) and you’ve got an inexperienced outfield who’ll have to learn on the fly from no one except themselves.

On the infield, the only veteran remaining is Eric Chavez who’s recovering from numerous offseason surgeries—and one of three third basemen (the other two: Scott Rolen who they got, and David Wright...as if) that I would love to see in a Jays uniform.

If (and when) Chavez comes back, he’ll need to exercise his demons from 2007 as he achieved eight career lows on offense (RBI, Average, OBP, BB, TB, Doubles, Runs, Hits).

Daric Barton was impressive in his brief Major League stint last season (.347, 4 HR, 8 RBI as well as getting on base safely in all 18 of his games), however that success will be expected to translate over into his first full season as Oakland’s starting first baseman.

Then you’re looking at a shortstop in Bobby Crosby who reminds me a lot of Khalil Greene—he can be good, but only if he stays healthy. (Case in point 2004—the only season he played more than 100 games: 22HR, 64 RBI, 545 at-bats in 151 games played.)

Maybe he’ll luck out and Sidney Crosby will fulfill the Annual Injured Crosby Prophecy. Hmmmm…hopefully I didn’t jinx Sid the Kid. If so, you can add Pittsburgh to the list of American cities I’m no longer welcome in.

I’m not even sold on Jack Cust. (Call me a bitter Padres fan, but seriously...Termel Sledge? We let Jack Cust go because of HIM?!) This is a guy whose previous career high in home runs was four in 2003 with the Orioles, and out of nowhere he produces a team-best 26 home runs in 124 games.

Either this guy is the white Big Papi and thrives in the DH role, or he came out of nowhere to post huge numbers last season and he’ll fade into obscurity this season, killing the A’s even more.

There are two bright spots on this infield however: Kurt Suzuki and Mark Ellis. All Ellis has done in his time in the league is gradually improve his production (culminating in a career-high 19 HR and 76 RBI last season), while maintaining near-flawless defense (a .994 fielding percentage with only five errors in 2007).

Meanwhile, back behind the plate a different Suzuki is turning heads with his offense in the AL West. Kurt (known mainly in the minors for his defense and game management skills in the minor leagues) burst onto the scene last season with offensive numbers the likes of which he hadn’t produced since A and AA ball. What’ll be interesting however, is how he handles this year’s pitching staff.

Speaking of which...

Joe Blanton and Rich Harden (Harden is Canadian—initiate the Harden to Toronto rumors in 5,4,3,2,1...) are the one/two combination at the top of Oakland’s rotation this year. The rub however? Neither has started more than 100 games in their careers. (Blanton is at 98.)

This may not seem like a big deal, but when you look across the American League, the only other team without a starter with at least 100 career starts is the Tampa Bay Rays. Needless to say it’s an interesting strategy.

Harden has proven that, like Crosby, when he’s healthy he can dominate. In 2004 and 2005 Harden went 21-12 over 50 starts with a 3.74 ERA and 288 strikeouts in 317.2 innings. Blanton meanwhile is the proverbial apple of manager Bob Geren’s eye, as Geren is confident in the fact that Blanton was actually more consistent than Haren last year.

"Haren went 10-3 with a 2.30 ERA to Blanton's 6-5, 4.89 before the break. Blanton went 8-5, 3.28 in the second half to Haren's 5-6, 4.15." (Taken from the A’s Around the Horn-Starters report.)

The rotation is filled out by two swing-men and a player to be named later. What’s more is that these swingmen (Chad Gaudin and Jason Duchescherer...erererer) are both coming off injuries, while the fifth rotation spot could be filled out by a third swing-man (Kirk Saarloos, Dan Meyer) or Dana Eveland (acquired from Arizona for Haren).

Moving to the bullpen, it’s again an issue of health. Closer Huston Street is back and healthy, ready to re-assume his role as one of the game’s best young closers (76 saves by the age of 24). Street proved that last year’s injury troubles shouldn’t slow him down as he finished the season 3-0 with 10 saves.

Kiko Calero suffered through injury troubles of his own, as he battled through the season to his first ever sub-.500 mark and the highest ERA of his career (he also pitched in his fewest amount of innings since 2003).

The youth will continue to surface in the bullpen as Santiago Casilla appeared in his first steady MLB action, providing the Athletic’s with his first season in which his strikeout totals weren’t equal to or below his walk totals.

Young pitchers Dallas Braden, Jerry Blevins, and Dan Meyer (provided he doesn’t win a job in the rotation) can also stand to learn a thing or two from bullpen veterans Alan Embree, Keith Foulke (back out of retirement, what a difference a year can make!), and Kirk Saarloos throughout the season.

If there’s one man I trust to build a competitive team, it’s Billy Beane. Whether they can be competitive at all throughout the entire season however, is the question.

2008 Prediction: 74-88, 4th in AL West

Texas Rangers (2007 Results 75-87, 4th in AL West)

You know that scene in Star Wars IV: A New Hope where they're in the cantina and Luke bumps into those two at the bar and the "He doesn't like you...I don't like you either" argument starts up?

Well, the Rangers GM Jon Daniels just called me about Baltimore: "Don't worry, we don't like them either, and they probably hate us more than they do you."

The Rangers come into the season with a rotation that suffered through injuries all of last year. Jason Jennings is coming off of elbow surgery; Vincente Padilla, Brandon McCarthy, and Kevin Millwood all spent time on the disabled list; and Kason Gabbard (who’ll have to return to Boston Red Sox form) wasn’t allowed to finish out the season due to arm troubles.

Now the Rangers are out to answer one simple question: How good can they be with a healthy rotation?

Both Padilla and Jennings are looking to bounce back from horrible, injury-filled years. Padilla, after going 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA in 2006, fell from grace (or came back to earth depending on how you look at it) in 2007, going 6-10 with a 5.76 ERA.

Jason Jennings meanwhile, suffered through the worst season of his career going 2-9 with a 6.45 ERA in 18 starts (leading to the worst winning percentage of his career).

Although Texas would jump at Jennings returning to his 2002 form (16-8, 4.52 ERA, 185.1 innings pitched) I’m sure they’d settle for the 2006 Jennings (9-13, 3.78 ERA, 212 innings pitched).

Kevin Millwood will be the returning ace to this staff, but there’s something about him you may not know. Yes, he was 10-14 last year with a 5.16 ERA. Yes, his hamstring was hurting him at the beginning of the season. Yes, he’s started kickboxing. (OK, you may not have known that either depending on who you are.) But the interesting thing about Kevin Millwood? The way he bounces back from sub .500 years.

In his career Millwood has finished at or below .500 for a season four times including last season. In two of the seasons after, Millwood finished better than .500 (in 2001 he only pitched in 21 games and finished at .500), threw more than 200 innings, won more than 15 games, and struck out more than 150 batters.

Unless he’s bitten by the injury bug again, expect Millwood to have an outstanding year.

The bullpen will be a question for the Rangers, but not a question of how good it will be. That comes later, as right now the Rangers have to answer who will be in the bullpen. Reading through the previews, there could be somewhere around 16 pitchers competing for the three remaining spots in the bullpen.

Rather than getting into all 16 of them, here are the four players who are staring roster spots square in the eyes, while each competing for the spot of closer:

Joaquin Benoit—Held down a 2.85 ERA and a 7-4 record last season along with six saves and 87 strikeouts. In the event that Fukumori wins the right-handed setup slot, Benoit has the ability to spell him at times, as well as the endurance to fill in for two or three inning spurts.

Kazuo Fukumori—A Japanese import, Fukumori compiled 72 career saves in the Japanese leagues while splitting time as a starter and reliever. He has a career 3.68 ERA and 460 strikeouts to 243 walks.

CJ Wilson—He went 12/14 in save opportunities last season, with a 3.03 ERA in 68.1 innings. If Wilson loses out on the closer’s job, look for him to become a lefty setup specialist.

Eddie Guardado—He only pitched in 15 games at the end of last season, and the numbers wouldn’t blow you away. (His ERA was over 7.00.) However, he has the most Major League experience out of the group (183 career saves) and the Rangers have already tipped their hat to the notion that their closer will “most likely be left-handed," narrowing it to Guardado and Wilson.

As always, the outfield is ever-changing in Texas. Now it features Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Marlon Byrd. Although both Byrd and Hamilton are strong fielders, and Hamilton brings an expansive offensive presence to centre field, as always questions are abound with regards to Bradley.

His temper (which led him to a season-ending ACL tear with the Padres last season) will be one of concern, which merits question of whether all the extra baggage is worth it for a player who has never topped 20 homers or 70 RBI. (I mean, even Barry Bonds could single-handedly win you games despite his mass amounts of baggage.)

It’s been said that Milton should be ready for the season opener, although if he isn’t, or his temper leads him to the Rangers’ bench, expect David Murphy to see a much heavier workload.

A note from a San Diego fan: Have fun with Milton Bradley. He’ll show signs of life and then go and do something stupid. Then he’ll be all gung-ho to sign back with the team that had to wrestle him to the ground before he killed an umpire, and jump ship for an extra million dollars.

In the infield, consistency is the big question heading into the season. Although Michael Young had a standard year for average and RBI, the power numbers were down and his fielding percentage was a full 13 points below his then-career average. Although trade winds surrounded Hank Blalock throughout the offseason, the Rangers kept him around, hoping that he can keep off the DL this season and finish with some strong offensive numbers.

Over at second base, Ian Kinsler is coming back for a third year, and it’s expected that the trend will continue as Kinsler hopes to continue his offensive improvement like he did last year, establishing new career highs in all categories except in doubles, slugging percentage, and average.

At catcher, Gerald Laird and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will hope to form a dangerous duo both in the box and behind the plate.

However, what happens at first base could determine who sees more reps behind the plate.

The acquisition (and then signing) of Broussard provides Texas with a lot of things. It gives them a starting first baseman who has proven to be excellent in the field while providing modest power throughout a lineup, it ensures that Frank Catalanotto will be allowed to continue on as the DH and not have to worry about any other position (aside from periodic work in the outfield), and it provides them with a mentor for “Salty” in case they have an urge to keep both Laird and Saltalamacchia in the lineup.

If the Rangers decide to keep Salty on as a catcher though, Chris Shelton or prospect Nate Gold could potentially see some time if Broussard slips.

Overall, there are some good things happening in the Heart of Texas. However in the AL West it’ll only help the Rangers to keep their heads above water for the time being.

2008 Prediction: 80-82 3rd in AL West

Seattle Mariners (2007 Results: 88-74, 2nd in AL West)

If the Colorado Rockies were last year’s “dangerous when hot” team, the Seattle Mariners could very well inherit that crown this year...and it’s not like they don’t have the pieces either.

Their rotation can be one of the most dangerous in the league, as each of this year’s starters finished 2007 with at least 10 wins. Erik Bedard (Canadian and not going to Toronto...yet) finished fourth in the league in strikeouts and he missed an entire month of the season.

Felix Hernandez is going to be 22 this year and if he continues to improve at this rate he could have a viable shot at 300 career wins. Carlos Silva ate the AL West for breakfast last season (5-1, 16 earned runs, 25k, 10bb), and both Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista can be counted on for a handful of strong starts this season.

In the field the Mariners are a fairly balanced group. With two power bats on the corners of their infield in Richie Sexson (who had his power numbers curtailed due to an injury plagued campaign last season) and Adrian Beltre has averaged 23 home runs over his Seattle career.

Behind the plate Kenji Johjima provides a steady presence, as the Japanese import is continually working to improve his defense. His offense certainly hasn’t disappointed either (.289 average over two seasons). With the possibility of two backup catchers making the roster (Jamie Burke and hot shot rookie Jeff Clement), the corners don’t seem to be a problem for the M’s.

In the middle of the infield Seattle has an up-and-coming young duo in Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez.

Lopez made huge strides on the defensive side of the ball, posting a career-high in double plays turned and a career low in errors while posting the highest fielding percentage at second base in his career. Although his on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and batting average all dropped last season, Lopez was able to show a little more patience, lowering his 2006 strikeout total by 16 in 2007.

Yuniesky Betancourt showed a flashy defensive side. Despite a fielding percentage on the low side (.967) Betancourt finished in the top five for shortstops total chances, put-outs, and double plays. On the offensive side, Betancourt continued to be a solid hitter for average (.289 for a second straight year), and was able to drive in 20 more RBI than he did in 2006, while dropping his strikeout totals like Lopez.

In the outfield, the loss of Jose Guillen doesn’t immediately effect the Mariners because, let’s face it, they’ve got Ichiro.

In 2007 Ichiro was second in put-outs amongst outfielders, but what might be even more surprising is that Ichiro has never had a fielding percentage below .990 and he’s never played fewer than 150 games. Throw in the fact that he hits 220 annually (that’s not average, that’s HITS), and he’s a pretty big deal.

Rounding out the outfield is Brad Wilkerson and Raul Ibanez. Ibanez seems like a solid bet for at least 20 HR, while Wilkerson could replicate his 20 homer season of 2007 as he just switches sides in the NL West. (Interestingly enough, in Wilkerson’s third full season in the NL East with Montreal, he hit 32 homers. This is his third full season in the AL West. It’s just something to look for I guess.)

Assuming that Wilkerson is able to keep his offense consistent with last season, the Mariners shouldn’t miss Jose Guillen’s 23 homers too much, and if they can set the table for Wilkerson the former Expo could set a new career-high in RBI.

As far as the bench goes, versatility is the name of the game. DH Jose Vidro was a surprise in his first season in the AL, as no one saw this resurgence (of sorts) coming or his .308 average as a DH (second highest for designated hitters).

Aside from swinging the bat, Vidro can also play second base in the event that one of the regular fielders needs a break. Willie Bloomqvist, Mike Morse, and Miguel Cairo all have the ability to play anywhere in the field. (Bloomqvist was one of three Major League players to play every position aside from pitcher and catcher).

Then we move to the bullpen. Seriously, when you have a guy like JJ Putz to close out a game, is there ever any doubt? Putz finished in a tie for fifth amongst closers with 40 saves and had a 1.38 ERA. 1.38!!!!!!! Isn’t that what Bush’s approval rating has dropped to?

(Admit it, you thought the Bush joke was:

a) going to be about his IQ or

b) was coming back when I previewed Texas)

Aside from Putz, Seattle’s bullpen will take on a distinctly younger feel. There are three guys who could appear in this bullpen (Sean White, Brandon Morrow, Jon Huber) that their entire Major League careers combined have only appeared in 100 games.

Both Eric O’Flaherty and Sean Green appeared in over 50 games last season, although that was the first 50+ game season for either reliever. Add in to that mix Mark Lowe, coming off arm surgery and only 15 appearances in 2007, and the on-the-job experience attained in Seattle’s bullpen could be the key to the season.

The Mariners are the team with the best shot in the AL West at knocking off the Angels. They have a consistent offense, combined with strong pitching and solid defense. If the Angels falter the M’s could slide right on in there to take the division.

That is, if the Angels falter.

2008 Predictions: 91-71, 2nd in AL West

L.A. Angels of Anaheim (2007 Results: 94-68, AL West Champs)

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim did the least to improve this offseason, but again they’re the favorites to win the AL West.

Despite adding only Torii Hunter and Jon Garland (I know...ONLY) the Angels only lost Bartolo Colon (6-10 with an ERA over 6.00 in each of the past two seasons), Dallas McPherson (injured all of last year and has only played in 117 games the past three seasons), and Orlando Cabrera (two-time Gold Glove winning shortstop with 165 career steals and a World Series ring).

OK, so that last one hurt but the other two not so much.

With the acquisition of Torii Hunter, the Angels add another 28 home runs, as well as a player with 20-steal potential. Although both Garret Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero are getting up in years, both can hit at or near .300, have strong presences and arms in the outfield, and bring in much needed experience.

If it’s found that one of them can’t competently play the field anymore, projected DH Gary Mathews Jr. can bring an agile, upbeat approach to the outfield and Vladdy or Garret can take over at DH.

The difference that the Angels bring to the AL West is the speed and agility that can be seen in all facets of their infield. Chone Figgins finished seventh in the league in steals with 41 and had the third best average (.330) amongst the top 10 leaders in steals throughout the league.

Casey Kotchman brings a .997 fielding percentage with him, as well as a .296 average and the second-fewest strikeouts amongst first basemen with at least 10 homers.

At second, Howie Kendrick offers a third threat to hit over .300 for this infield, and he could be a threat to steal 20 bases with a full season’s work under his belt. Throw in two catchers hungry for action in Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis, and that leaves you with a dangerous infield.

The question on this infield: Who rises to the top and takes over the shortstops role?

Will Erick Aybar translate his successful minor league hitting into major league success? Maybe Maicer Izturis can leave his mark on the left side with a third straight year with an average over .285 and improve upon last year’s .917 fielding percentage at short? Or is it time for Brandon Wood to make the jump to the Majors with his big bat (102 minor-league home runs) courtesy of a big training camp?

Whoever isn’t able to secure the job at short will probably end up on the bench, adding to a surplus of talent that includes Rob Quinlan, Kendry Morales, Reggie Willits, and Juan Rivera.

The plus for the Angels in the pitching department is the options or depth that they have going into the season.

John Lackey comes back to anchor a staff after a 19-win season bolstered by a fourth (and third straight) 200 inning season. Following Lackey will be former Blue Jay and 18-game winner Kelvim Escobar who has won at least 11 games and pitched at least 185 innings in the three full seasons he’s spent in Anaheim.

Jon Garland comes into this season following an off-year in which he only won 10 games. Now 10 wins isn’t anything to just throw away, but Garland had won 12 or more games in each season since 2002 (including the 18 that helped me keep above water in my 2005 Fantasy Baseball pool).

Jered Weaver will try to improve upon his 13 wins from the 2006 season, while the final spot in the rotation will be determined in Spring Training between Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana.

Moving to the bullpen, the same relievers are back for (at least) their second year with the Angels.

Long-time Halo Francisco Rodriguez returns to anchor the back end after last year’s 40 save performance, and every other Angel’s reliever is expected to improve upon last season’s numbers.

There’s not a lot you can say about a bullpen that doesn’t have any new faces coming in—other than that if last year is any indication, the Angels should have a strong bullpen, leading to another AL West championship.

2008 Prediction: 97-65, 1st in AL West

So there you have it, aside from the Angels and Mariners engaging in a battle for the division title that could include some stellar pitching matchups, lots of runs, and some sparkling defensive gems, the AL West should be the same as it always is (aside from a few extra names that cause SpellCheck to go into convulsions).

Actually, maybe this year could be a little more exciting.