Predicting MLB Teams' Decisions on Qualifying Offers and If Players Accept or Reject

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees to win the World Series, and now the baseball world has pivoted to the offseason. It may be some time before the hot stove truly heats up, but there are some procedural decisions that teams will have to make with impending free agents in the coming days.

Among those is whether to extend a qualifying offer to impending free agents. The qualifying offer is a one-year, $21.05 million deal. If it's extended to any player, they can accept and play on that deal for 2025. If they decline it and sign with another team, their former team collects draft-pick compensation, while the new employers surrender picks in the next year's MLB Draft.

Those who have previously been extended a qualifying offer cannot receive one for a second time. Among those who can become free agents this winter who are ineligible to receive a qualifying offer are Gerrit Cole, Cody Bellinger, Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Blake Snell.

Teams must decide by 5 p.m. ET on Monday, Nov. 4, whether to extend qualifying offers to eligible recipients. Those who receive a QO must accept or decline it by 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 19.

Here are predictions on whether some notable candidates for the qualifying offer will indeed be extended and, if so, whether they will accept or decline it.

Corbin Burnes

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BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 08: Corbin Burnes #39 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 8, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Will Orioles Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes

Will Burnes Accept Qualifying Offer? No

Corbin Burnes just turned 30. He has been an All-Star in four consecutive seasons and won the 2021 NL Cy Young Award as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers. He also has a clean health history.

It's a slam dunk that Burnes—who is probably the best free-agent pitcher since Gerrit Cole after 2019—will receive and decline a qualifying offer from the Orioles. He'll then head to free agency in search of a deal worth at least $200 million.

Teoscar Hernández

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NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 29: Teoscar Hernández #37 of the Los Angeles Dodgers takes the field prior to Game 4 of the 2024 World Series presented by Capital One between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, October 29, 2024 in New York, New York. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Will Dodgers Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes

Will Hernández Accept Qualifying Offer? No

Teoscar Hernández had a tremendous season with the Dodgers, homering 33 times, driving in 99 runs and winning a World Series. Because the Seattle Mariners didn't extend a qualifying offer to him last winter, Hernández is eligible to receive one, and the Dodgers will certainly take advantage of that.

Being saddled with a qualifying offer might turn some teams off from making a push for the 32-year-old in free agency. The best scenario for Hernández probably would be to decline the qualifying offer, test free agency and eventually return to the Dodgers on a three- or four-year deal.

Willy Adames

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MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 29: Willy Adames #27 of the Milwaukee Brewers jogs to the dugout after being taken out in the seventh inning against the New York Mets at American Family Field on September 29, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

Will Brewers Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes

Will Adames Accept Qualifying Offer? No

Willy Adames had the finest offensive season of his career in his contract year, homering 32 times, driving in 112 runs and drawing 74 walks. Even if his typically strong defensive metrics took a hit in 2024—he posted -16 defensive runs saved a year after finishing with eight DRS—Adames will definitely receive and decline the qualifying offer.

Based on how the Brewers typically operate, they'll likely let someone else pay Adames $150 million-plus and collect the draft compensation when he departs in free agency.

Luis Severino

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SAN DIEGO, CA - AUGUST 22: Luis Severino #40 of the New York Mets pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres, August 22, 2024 at Petco Park in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

Will Mets Extend Qualifying Offer? No

Luis Severino revitalized his career with the Mets in 2024, posting a 3.91 ERA across 182 innings for a team that reached the NLCS. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns should definitely consider extending the qualifying offer to Severino.

But if the Mets do that, the most likely scenario is that the 30-year-old accepts it and returns to Flushing on a $21.05 million salary in 2025. Given that Severino pitched just 209.1 innings between 2019 and 2023, the guess here is the Mets will decide that guaranteeing him that amount of money for 2025 is too risky.

Not offering Severino the qualifying offering doesn't preclude the Mets from bringing him back. It does mean, though, that he's likely to receive a multiyear deal, potentially one that allows him to return to the market again next offseason if he proves he's put injury issues in the rearview mirror.

Ha-Seong Kim

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SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - JULY 31: Ha-Seong Kim #7 of the San Diego Padres waits for a pitch in the fourth inning during a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park on July 31, 2024 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

Will Padres Extend Qualifying Offer? No

Right shoulder inflammation limited Ha-Seong Kim to just 121 games this year. He hit just .233, failing to match his prior campaign in which he had a career year offensively.

Given that Kim had season-ending surgery to repair a "small tear in the labrum" of his right shoulder that likely will prevent him from being ready for Opening Day 2025, the Padres surely will not extend a qualifying offer to him. They may not do so even if he was healthy. Kim would probably accept it in either scenario.

Still, Kim is a tremendous defensive infielder who posted 60 RBI and a .749 OPS as recently as 2023. With no QO attached to him, the 29-year-old may very well get a multiyear deal in free agency.

Juan Soto

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LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 26: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Yankees reacts during Game 2 of the 2024 World Series presented by Capital One between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, October 26, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Will Yankees Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes

Will Soto Accept Qualifying Offer? No

Not a ton more needs to be said here. The Yankees will issue a qualifying offer to Soto, and he'll decline it. Obviously, the hope from owner Hal Steinbrenner and general manager Brian Cashman will be to find a way to fend off the crosstown rival Mets, among others, and retain Soto.

Because the Yankees topped the luxury tax threshold in 2024, they would only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2025 MLB Draft if Soto rejects the QO and leaves in free agency.

Pete Alonso

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NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 18: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets rounds the bases after hitting a two RBI home run in the first inning during Game 5 of the NLCS presented by loanDepot between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Friday, October 18, 2024 in New York, New York. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Will Mets Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes

Will Alonso Accept Qualifying Offer? No

It feels hard to imagine Pete Alonso playing for a team other than the Mets, particularly after he posted a .999 OPS and delivered four home runs during a surprising run to the NLCS.

Like the Yankees with Soto, the Mets would only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round for Alonso if he leaves in free agency after declining the qualifying offer.

Shane Bieber

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SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - APRIL 02: Shane Bieber #57 of the Cleveland Guardians throws a pitch during the fifth inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on April 02, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)

Will Guardians Extend Qualifying Offer? No

Shane Bieber had season-ending Tommy John surgery in April, which makes it unclear A) when he'll be ready to pitch in 2025 and B) how effective he'll be when he does return. There's no way the Guardians—a team whose ownership pinches pennies—is giving Bieber the chance to accept a $21.05 million offer for 2025 with that level of uncertainty.

With that said, the Guardians need starting pitching and could try to come up with a creative offer—whether it's for one year or multiple—to retain the former AL Cy Young Award winner.

But if the Guardians don't give Bieber the qualifying offer and he signs elsewhere this offseason, they'll be left empty-handed.

Max Fried

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ATLANTA, GEORGIA - AUGUST 21: Max Fried #54 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park on August 21, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

Will Braves Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes

Will Fried Accept Qualifying Offer? No

Even though he's had some durability questions, Max Fried will be one of the most-coveted free-agent pitchers this offseason. He'll surely decline the qualifying offer that the Braves give him.

Fried has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball over the last five seasons, posting a 2.81 ERA across 112 starts for the Braves. He'll turn 31 in January, but he should still have at least a handful of strong years in front of him.

But under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves have reached most of their long-term deals on their terms. Players who sought to maximize their earnings—Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson and Josh Donaldson, for example—were allowed to leave in free agency. If Fried wants a market-value contract, will the Braves let him walk?

Sean Manaea

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LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 14: Sean Manaea #59 of the New York Mets pitches during Game 2 of the NLCS presented by loanDepot between the New York Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Monday, October 14, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Will Mets Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes

Will Manaea Accept Qualifying Offer? No

At the time of publication, Sean Manaea hasn't yet opted out of the $13.5 million salary he could make in the second year of his contract with the Mets in 2025. But he will after posting a 3.47 ERA across 181.2 innings this year for the Mets, the finest season of his career.

It's perhaps not a slam dunk that the Mets extend a qualifying offer to Manaea, but the guess here is he will get one from the Mets. He could take a $21.05 million salary to remain with the Mets for 2025, but this is a pitcher who posted a 4.73 ERA from 2022-2023. He would be wise to strike while the iron is hot, declining the qualifying offer and looking for a multi-year deal that guarantees him more than $21.05 million total.

Editor's Note: On Saturday afternoon, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported Manaea will opt out of his $13.5M option for 2025, likely prompting the Mets to extend a qualifying offer.

Jurickson Profar

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SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 07: Jurickson Profar #10 of the San Diego Padres is congratulated in the dugout after scoring a run against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Petco Park on September 07, 2024 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)

Will Padres Extend Qualifying Offer? No

Once one of the top prospects in baseball, Jurickson Profar finally made his first All-Star Game appearance in his age-31 season. Profar homered 24 times, drove in 85 runs, walked 76 times, and posted a .839 OPS.

The Padres would probably like to bring Profar back in 2025, but not at a $21.05 million price. If they extend a qualifying offer to a player who's just a year removed from posting a .689 OPS, he will take it.

So the most likely scenario is that Profar becomes a free agent and, without a QO attached to him, lands a multiyear deal from either the Padres or another suitor.

Anthony Santander

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MIAMI, FLORIDA - JULY 25: Anthony Santander #25 of the Baltimore Orioles rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Miami Marlins during the first inning of the game at loanDepot park on July 25, 2024 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Will Orioles Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes

Will Santander Accept Qualifying Offer? No

Anthony Santander had a tremendous walk year, setting new career highs with 44 home runs and 102 RBI. The Orioles will extend a qualifying offer to the switch-hitting slugger, and he'll decline it in search of a four or five-year contract in free agency.

Because the Orioles are a revenue-sharing recipient, they'll get a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 MLB Draft if Santander leaves in free agency for a deal worth $50 million or more total after rejecting a qualifying offer.

So while general manager Mike Elias may like to bring Santander back, he's made his name off his ability to spot talent in the draft. He may not mind the challenge of trying to replace Burnes and Santander if it means he gets two more high draft picks in 2025.

Alex Bregman

Jack Gorman/Getty Images

HOUSTON, TEXAS - JULY 27: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros runs to first base during the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Minute Maid Park on July 27, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images)

Will Astros Extend Qualifying Offer? Yes

Will Bregman Accept Qualifying Offer? No

Alex Bregman looked like a potential candidate to accept the qualifying offer at the end of May, considering he had just a .652 OPS. However, he posted a .833 OPS after the All-Star Game, finishing the season with 26 home runs and 75 RBI.

Bregman will receive and decline a qualifying offer from the Astros. Houston still seems like the best landing spot for Bregman in free agency, but there will definitely be other teams with interest in the 30-year-old.