College Football 2024: Week 10 Predictions for Every Game
If you want a moment to catch your breath, Week 10 is the best possible remaining time. Dozens of college football teams have an open weekend to prepare for the closing stretch.
But you know chaos is inevitable anyway.
Even as eight Top 25 teams are idle, the slate features a couple of truly massive tilts. Ohio State and Penn State—which is hoping quarterback Drew Allar will be healthy enough to play—will battle for an inside track to the Big Ten Championship Game, while Pitt is set to place its undefeated record on the line at SMU in a crucial ACC showdown.
Several more unbeatens—Oregon, Miami and Iowa State, among others—are aiming to remain unscathed, too.
The stakes are only growing as the first College Football Playoff ranking of the year is coming next week.
There's no time to lose.
AP Nos. 25-21
1 of 7
No. 25 Missouri (6-2), Idle
Minnesota (5-3) at No. 24 Illinois (6-2), Noon ET
Illinois lost handily at Oregon last weekend, which was no surprise. On the other hand, Minnesota smoked Maryland by 25 points. I still believe Illinois wins because of its running game and defense, but Minnesota is noticeably trending up right now.
Prediction: Illinois 31, Minnesota 23
No. 23 Colorado (6-2), Idle
No. 22 Washington State (7-1), Idle
Air Force (1-6) at No. 21 Army (7-0), Noon ET
The script is flipped from the 2023 matchup when six-loss Army shocked a then-unbeaten Air Force team at a neutral site. Don't count on revenge in the opposite direction, though. Even if a subpar Air Force run defense puts together a great game, the offense has topped 20 points against a power-conference opponent just once in 2024.
Prediction: Army 35, Air Force 14
AP Nos. 20-16
2 of 7
No. 19 Ole Miss (6-2) at Arkansas (5-3), Noon ET
Red-zone efficiency has been an issue for Ole Miss, scoring touchdowns on just 41.2 percent of those possessions in SEC play. Jaxson Dart has accounted for only three touchdowns in four SEC games, too. If the Rebels finally snap the trend, they can avoid a setback at Arkansas. But these warning signs are evident.
Prediction: Arkansas 27, Ole Miss 23
No. 20 Pitt (7-0) at No. 18 SMU (7-1), 8 p.m. ET
Because of SMU's remaining games, this result can have a particularly large impact on the ACC standings. Win here, and the Mustangs have a very favorable path toward an unbeaten record in conference play. How perfectly Pitt it would be, however, for a stout defense to introduce the program to the ACC newcomer with a soul-crushing upset.
Prediction: Pitt 29, SMU 26
No. 17 Kansas State (7-1) at Houston (3-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Houston is almost entirely dependent on the running game to have any success. Kansas State just yielded 192 yards and three touchdowns on the ground to rival Kansas, so the Wildcats aren't impenetrable. Still, for the season, K-State has ceded only 3.1 yards per carry.
Prediction: Kansas State 34, Houston 17
No. 16 LSU (6-2), Idle
AP Nos. 15-11
3 of 7
San Diego State (3-4) at No. 15 Boise State (6-1), Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Only one question matters when playing Boise State: Can you contain Ashton Jeanty? San Diego State, naturally, is a firm "maybe" in that conversation. Oregon State and Cal rolled over SDSU, but the defense held Washington State to 114 yards last weekend. Still, that's not convincing enough against a player of Jeanty's caliber.
Prediction: Boise State 41, San Diego State 24
No. 14 Alabama (6-2), Idle
No. 13 Indiana (8-0) at Michigan State (4-4), 3:30 p.m. ET
With or without Kurtis Rourke, I'd take Indiana here because of its defense. The unit has given up 4.5 yards per snap and is among the best in the nation at preventing explosive plays. Since the Hoosiers are "optimistic" their QB will be available, that's simply a bonus.
Prediction: Indiana 33, Michigan State 20
Louisville (5-3) at T-No. 11 Clemson (6-1), 7:30 p.m. ET
From my perspective, this matchup is all about Louisville's defense. Against three previous ranked opponents—Notre Dame, SMU and Miami—the Cardinals have allowed 39 points per game. Clemson's first-string defense still has not yielded more than 17 points since Week 1. That streak could end, but likely not to a problematic degree for Clemson.
Prediction: Clemson 37, Louisville 24
Texas Tech (5-3) at T-No. 11 Iowa State (7-0), 3:30 p.m. ET
After flirting with disaster two weeks ago opposite UCF, Iowa State had an extra week to prepare for reeling Texas Tech defense. Three of Tech's last four opponents have notched seven-plus yards per play. Tough to think a drastic improvement is coming on the road.
Prediction: Iowa State 35, Texas Tech 23
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AP Nos. 10-6
4 of 7
No. 10 Texas A&M (7-1) at South Carolina (4-3), 7:30 p.m. ET
On the road, at night, against a top-tier defense? If that's not a familiar brand of an upset, you must be new to college football. In which case, hello! Welcome. Glad you're here. Texas A&M undoubtedly has the quality to win because of its own defense, but South Carolina is a real thorn. Throw in A&M's uncertainty at quarterback, and the Gamecocks have a terrific chance to shake up the SEC standings.
Prediction: South Carolina 20, Texas A&M 16
No. 9 BYU (8-0), Idle
No. 8 Notre Dame (7-1), Idle
Kentucky (3-5) at No. 7 Tennessee (6-1), 7:45 p.m. ET
That surprise win at Ole Miss is nothing but a memory. Kentucky was a disaster in October, losing to Vanderbilt, Florid and Auburn while getting outscored 92-43. Tennessee should win comfortably at home.
Prediction: Tennessee 34, Kentucky 10
No. 6 Texas (7-1), Idle
AP Nos. 5-1
5 of 7
Duke (6-2) at No. 5 Miami (8-0), Noon ET
Miami is set to meet former coach Manny Diaz, who recruited plenty of the current stars on the unbeaten 'Canes. Safe to say Duke's players will have a little motivation. Diaz is certain to have creative looks to showcase a defense that ranks second nationally in tackles for loss, too. Ultimately, however, Duke hasn't been dangerous enough offensively to believe the Blue Devils will shock Cam Ward and Miami.
Prediction: Miami 36, Duke 24
No. 4 Ohio State (6-1) at No. 3 Penn State (7-0), Noon ET
In a clash featuring two of the nation's best defenses, expect a low-scoring slugfest. Given that, any number of factors—turnovers, red-zone efficiency, etc.—could be decisive. My focus is squarely on the quarterbacks, though. Which one avoids that game-changing mistake? I'll lean in favor of the healthier QB: Ohio State's Will Howard.
Prediction: Ohio State 20, Penn State 17
Florida (4-3) vs. No. 2 Georgia (6-1) (in Jacksonville), 3:30 p.m. ET
The long-awaited November nightmare is about to begin for Florida, which follows this rivalry with games at Texas and home to LSU and Ole Miss. Simultaneously, an intelligent, versatile UGA defense will be a major learning experience for freshman quarterback DJ Lagway, to say the least.
Prediction: Georgia 30, Florida 13
No. 1 Oregon (8-0) at Michigan (5-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Jack Tuttle, the third starting QB for Michigan this season, just medically retired after his fifth concussion diagnosis. As a result, the Wolverines are shifting back to Davis Warren. He's averaged 6.2 yards per attempt and tossed three touchdowns to six interceptions in 2024. Put simply, Oregon has no excuse to not control this matchup.
Prediction: Oregon 27, Michigan 10
Rest of the Slate, Part I
6 of 7
Tulane (6-2) at Charlotte (3-5), Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Tulane 42, Charlotte 21
Georgia State (2-5) at Connecticut (5-3), Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: UConn 27, Georgia State 20
South Florida (3-4) at Florida Atlantic (2-5), Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: USF 28, FAU 23
Virginia Tech (5-3) at Syracuse (5-2), Noon ET
Prediction: Syracuse 27, Virginia Tech 24
Stanford (2-6) at North Carolina State (4-4), Noon ET
Prediction: NC State 26, Syracuse 21
Northwestern (3-5) at Purdue (1-6), Noon ET
Prediction: Purdue 23, Northwestern 17
Memphis (7-1) at UTSA (3-5), Noon ET
Prediction: Memphis 41, UTSA 24
Toledo (5-3) at Eastern Michigan (5-3), Noon ET
Prediction: Toledo 29, EMU 23
Buffalo (4-4) at Akron (2-6), Noon ET
Prediction: Buffalo 27, Akron 20
Vanderbilt (5-3) at Auburn (3-5), 12:45 p.m. ET
Prediction: Auburn 24, Vanderbilt 23
Maine (4-4) at Oklahoma (4-4), 2:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Oklahoma 45, Maine 10
Tulsa (3-5) at UAB (1-6), 2:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Tulsa 26, UAB 22
Old Dominion (4-4) at Appalachian State (3-4), 2:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: ODU 34, App State 30
Rest of the Slate, Part II
7 of 7
North Carolina (4-4) at Florida State (1-7), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: UNC 28, Florida State 24
UCLA (2-5) at Nebraska (5-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Nebraska 31, UCLA 17
Arizona (3-5) at UCF (3-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: UCF 34, Arizona 23
Middle Tennessee (2-6) at UTEP (1-7), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: UTEP 27, MTSU 20
Louisiana-Monroe (5-2) at Marshall (4-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Marshall 28, ULM 26
Navy (6-1) at Rice (2-6), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Navy 38, Rice 21
Wyoming (1-7) at New Mexico (3-5), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: New Mexico 42, Wyoming 24
Coastal Carolina (4-3) at Troy (1-7), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 27, Troy 20
Massachusetts (2-6) at Mississippi State (1-7), 4:15 p.m. ET
Prediction: Mississippi State 39, UMass 16
Arizona State (5-2) at Oklahoma State (3-5), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Arizona State 28, Oklahoma State 23
Hawaii (3-5) at Fresno State (5-3), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Fresno State 35, Hawaii 24
Wisconsin (5-3) at Iowa (5-3), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Iowa 23, Wisconsin 19
USC (4-4) at Washington (4-4), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: USC 30, Washington 27
Georgia Southern (5-3) at South Alabama (4-4), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia Southern 34, South Alabama 30
TCU (5-3) at Baylor (4-4), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Baylor 38, TCU 35
Colorado State (5-3) at Nevada (3-6), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: CSU 28, Nevada 25
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