Updated Win-Loss Predictions At Quarter Mark of 2024 NFL Season
Four down, 13 to go.
That's the case in an NFL season that is down to two unbeaten teams and just one winless squad. Everybody else is in the mix with either one win, one loss or a .500 record entering October.
That being the case, let's take a fresh shot at final win-loss predictions for all 32 of 'em.
AFC East
1 of 8
Buffalo Bills: 14-3
Sunday night was a blip for a team that looks as strong as anyone in football and might finally be putting it all together. I can't see the Bills tripping up more than a couple more times the rest of the year.
Miami Dolphins: 6-11
There's a chance they get Tua Tagovailoa back by midseason, but it's far from guaranteed he'll be a reliable presence the rest of the season. Without him, they might be the worst team in the NFL. With him, they still have problems.
New England Patriots: 4-13
The line is a train wreck, and the rest of the offense is destined for a season of growing pains, but the D isn't bad. The Patriots have enough gusto to pull out a few more Ws.
New York Jets: 9-8
Still don't believe in Aaron Rodgers, and the schedule ain't easy.
AFC North
2 of 8
Baltimore Ravens: 12-5
The weekly progress is pretty eye-opening, and the ingredients are there for a skilled veteran team that doesn't have that many more challenges left. Still, they're working from an 0-2 hole.
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7
Too much talent, experience and resiliency for them not to bounce back, but injuries and a tough schedule will keep them strictly in the wild-card conversation.
Cleveland Browns: 6-11
The defense is better than it has performed, but you do get the sense the wheels are coming off in general. And, holy moly, just take a look at that sked! I don't see an easy out the rest of the year.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
They always find their way back to the .500 range at a minimum, and the defense and coaching will get them there again this season. The hot start helps, but a scary schedule and obvious offensive concerns will keep them out of the playoffs.
AFC South
3 of 8
Houston Texans: 9-8
A collective sophomore slump could be in the works for a team that hasn't clicked and faces a lot of challenges in the coming months. That said, the Texans are lucky to be in a division that is once again clearly the worst in football.
Indianapolis Colts: 8-9
Just like last year, they're finding ways to win despite things not going as expected at quarterback. The problem is they have just five home games remaining all year, and the talent is far from overwhelming on both sides of the ball.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-12
It's an implosion for a team that has lost nine of its last 10 games. Trevor Lawrence has enough talent and support to keep them from the very bottom of the NFL pile, but the trajectory is too problematic to convince me they can can suddenly go 6-7 or better the rest of the way.
Tennessee Titans: 5-12
Maybe they beat the Colts after their Week 5 bye, the Patriots at home in November and the Jaguars at home in December. It's quite, quite difficult to find another win or two for this dud of a team.
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AFC West
4 of 8
Denver Broncos: 7-10
The defense is pretty close to legit, but I don't see them scoring enough points on most Sundays. Two wins in their back pocket entering October helps them avoid a completely lost season.
Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4
Their season thus far is reminding me of Philadelphia's start last year. They're finding ways to win, but it isn't sustainable considering the state of the roster. They're very lucky to be 4-0.
Las Vegas Raiders: 7-10
They have the ability and spirit to avoid falling apart, but not enough to get out of this Jekyll & Hyde pattern. It'll be a roller-coaster of mediocrity all season.
Los Angeles Chargers: 7-10
See: Las Vegas Raiders
NFC East
5 of 8
Dallas Cowboys: 10-7
They're good enough and experienced enough to figure this out, but the division looks stronger than expected, and injuries could be a big factor. Maybe an offseason of distractions was a bad omen.
New York Giants: 5-12
They've been hanging with quality opponents, but that seems like the best they can bring to the table. I only see another win or two on the schedule, but we'll leave room for a fluke or two as well.
Philadelphia Eagles: 9-8
Including the playoffs, this team now has a negative-28 scoring margin since losing Super Bowl LVII. The Eagles are also 3-8 in their last 11 games. Still, they could get desperate, and the talent is clearly there for them to at least remain above the .500 mark.
Washington Commanders: 11-6
I'm sure it won't continue to look this easy all season, but Jayden Daniels is doing C.J. Stroud 2023 things right now and the support is there. I think they have enough going for them to ride a nothing-to-lose wave to a title in the league's most unpredictable division.
NFC North
6 of 8
Chicago Bears: 10-7
Despite so much disappointment thus far on offense, they're 2-2 with a positive scoring margin. There's a path for them to put it together, starting with back-to-back home games against Carolina and Jacksonville to kick off October.
Detroit Lions: 10-7
Top 10 offensively and defensively now, and not far from 4-0 despite a somewhat slow start. However, the schedule is daunting and the pressure is high. I still don't totally trust them.
Green Bay Packers: 10-7
The offense looks electric and they survived September without much from Jordan Love and quite a tough sked. They'll push for double-digit wins if Love can get healthy and stay that way.
Minnesota Vikings: 10-7
They're good, but not this good. Playing a bit above their heads with a lot of challenges following their Week 6 bye. I wouldn't be surprised if they played .500 ball the rest of the way, because the schedule is a worrisome mix of tough home games and "easier" road games. Few walks in the park. And, yes, I'm giving an entire division the same record. This is fun.
NFC South
7 of 8
Atlanta Falcons: 10-7
They've recovered and are past the toughest part of the schedule. I can see them finding a groove as they get more acclimated and going on a bit of a run now.
Carolina Panthers: 5-12
They got a spark from Andy Dalton and have been more competitive the last couple of weeks, but there aren't many winnable games left for a team that still really sucks on paper.
New Orleans Saints: 11-6
They could easily be 4-0 right now instead of 2-2, and I wouldn't be surprised if they beat the Chiefs in Week 5. I'm sure consistency will be an issue with that offense, but the experience, talent and defensive prowess are all there. They'll contend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-8
Has the NFC South suddenly become strong? I think we're in store for a three-way fight for the division crown, but I don't know if the Bucs have the talent to hang with Atlanta and New Orleans, and I think they could take too much of a beating with this upcoming run against Atlanta, New Orleans, Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City and San Francisco.
NFC West
8 of 8
Arizona Cardinals: 6-11
We've seen what this offense can do, which is why they won't be complete league-wide basement-dwellers, but the consistency isn't there as they rebuild, and the schedule doesn't really let up.
Los Angeles Rams: 6-11
There's room for them to get healthier and they always seem to find a way to compete, but the hole is pretty big and they're in rough shape overall. This feels like a lost campaign, if not the precursor to a fire sale.
San Francisco 49ers: 11-6
Congrats on a division title by default to a team that has been crushed by injuries but also has space to get healthier and possesses the talent and experience to get through this.
Seattle Seahawks: 8-9
Still not on the Geno Smith bandwagon. He may continue to have his moments, but the consistency has never been there over the course of a full season, and the midseason schedule is mountainous for Seattle.
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