Big 12 Football: Preview and Predictions for 2024 Season
While all the talk this offseason has centered around the powerhouse enhancements to the SEC and Big Ten, the new-look Big 12 has rebranded itself more than anybody in the past couple of seasons.
Last year was the first as league members for UCF, Cincinnati, BYU and Houston. With the Pac-12 dissolving, this year's new participants bring even more clout. Yes, Texas and Oklahoma are out, but Utah, Arizona, Colorado and Arizona State are in, bringing the membership to 16 teams.
This is going to be a sneaky-exciting league to watch. While it may not have the star power or national clout of the SEC or Big Ten, it's going to be big on parity. Pretty much any one of five or six teams can win a wide-open league.
Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Kansas lead the best of the "old-timers" with Iowa State quietly a possibility. Meanwhile, high-octane Arizona and steady-and-healthy Utah pack a punch as newcomers.
You can't count out Texas Tech or West Virginia, either, and everybody pays attention to Deion Sanders' swagger with the Buffaloes.
There are a lot of reasons to watch the Big 12 in 2024, and we're here to give you the viewer's guide to the season. Let's dig in.
Best Players
1 of 9
When you're talking about the best players in the league, you've got to start with defending Doak Walker Award winner and elite running back Ollie Gordon II of Oklahoma State. He will team with Alan Bowman to give the Cowboys a formidable offense.
Newcomer Arizona has one of the most exciting tandems in the nation in QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan, who will electrify audiences in Brent Brennan's offense. There may not be a bigger star in all of college football than Colorado's Shedeur Sanders, and now he's in the Big 12 along with two-way superstar Travis Hunter. Will they have help on the Buffaloes?
Fifita, Sanders and Gordon are the megastars, but there are other stellar players, too. Oft-injured-but-spectacular Kansas QB Jalon Daniels, Kansas State dual-threat signal-caller Avery Johnson and returning seventh-year senior, Utah QB Cameron Rising, should all be on your radar. So should TCU WR Savion Williams.
Alongside Gordon is a trio of quality runners in Devin Neal (Kansas), Tahj Brooks (Texas Tech), Abu Sama III (Iowa State) and RJ Harvey (UCF). OL anchors like Wyatt Milum at West Virginia and Joe Michalski at Oklahoma State could pave the way.
On the defensive side of the ball, Hunter, Iowa State DB Jeremiah Cooper, Oklahoma State Edge Collin Oliver, Arizona CB Tacario Davis, Cincinnati DT Dontay Corleone (if he is cleared to play), Colorado edge BJ Green II and Kansas State CB Jacob Parrish stand out.
Newcomers like transfer QB KJ Jefferson (UCF) and DeQuan Finn, WR Dorian Singer (Utah), RB Dylan Edwards (Kansas State), WR Josh Kelly (Texas Tech) and C Bryce Foster (Kansas), as well as elite freshmen like the Red Raiders' Micah Hudson, Colorado OT Jordan Seaton and Kansas edge DJ Warner could break out, too.
Top Storylines
2 of 9
Old Hat or New Boots
Everybody knows by now that the heaviest hitters on the national stage—Texas and Oklahoma—are off to the SEC. That reality paves the way for others from the new-look league to emerge on the relevance scale.
Will it be the existing stalwarts like Oklahoma State, Kansas State and even Iowa State? Or will a newcomer like Utah or Arizona take the mantle? It's a fascinating scenario to watch. Could a sleeper like Kansas, Texas Tech or UCF emerge?
Looking at the Big 12, it's the most wide-open of the new Power Four. It's anybody's game, and it's going to be exciting week-in and week-out to see which one emerges.
National Relevance Quest Begins
You simply can't deny this sometimes-unpopular statement: The SEC and Big Ten rule the college football conversation.
That isn't going to change with the Longhorns and Sooners bolstering what has been the nation's most consistent powerhouse league, or with Oregon, USC, Washington and UCLA joining the Big Ten, where the defending national champion resides.
The Big 12 and ACC are afterthoughts. It's up to them to change it. Few Big 12 teams have recruited on a national level to hang with the top-tier programs in the Big Ten and SEC, but that doesn't mean they can't make waves. Is a program going to step up and say, "I own this league now?" If so, Midwestern recruits will take notice.
It's time for somebody to seize the national spotlight.
How Long Is Prime's Time?
Love him or detest him, you can't deny that you're talking about Deion Sanders at Colorado. The nation is talking about him, too.
Whether he's luring elite recruits, excelling in the transfer portal, running off players or barking at reporters, Coach Prime is making headlines. Unfortunately for the Buffaloes, he's yet to do that for his work in the win column.
With his son, Shedeur, leading the way at quarterback, improvement needs to follow now. Whether that happens or not, how long is Prime going to be in Boulder? After this year, his son and Hunter are off to the NFL. Will he follow? Or is he in this for the long haul? It's worth monitoring.
Heisman Watch
There are plenty of other things to get to later as storylines are woven into the following slides, but one thing to mention that could bring clout to the conference is a Heisman Trophy race.
Ollie Gordon II is going to get a ton of carries at Oklahoma State, and the defending Doak Walker Award winner is the nation's best running back who is plenty enough on the radar to generate buzz.
At Arizona, redshirt sophomore Noah Fifita is capable of putting up huge numbers, and if a lot of those yards and touchdowns are to Tetairoa McMillan, both could join that conversation. If Jalon Daniels is healthy, he's electrifying, and Sanders has all the NFL potential in the world, as does two-way star Hunter.
There's some star power in the league this year, and it could be exciting every week.
Top Challengers
3 of 9
Tier 1: Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
This is a tantalizing foursome with two existing members and two first-year programs ready to take the league by storm.
Utah may not be on your national checklist of teams this year after an injury-riddled season kept the Utes out of the glare of the spotlight a season ago. But with Cam Rising back, the Utes are dangerous. Coach Kyle Whittingham is always going to have a stellar defense, and he gets his leader back after Rising missed all of last season.
Arizona has many more question marks, but after dragging Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl, the Wildcats are coming off a double-digit win season. Jedd Fisch left for Washington, and former San Jose State coach Brent Brennan is now at the helm. If he can find the right defensive concoction to go along with the offensive playmakers, look out.
When it comes to Oklahoma State and Kansas State, you know what you're getting. They are hard-nosed, rugged and well-coached. They have a bunch of veterans, and while you don't think about them often on the national scale, they always win.
Tier 2: Kansas, Iowa State, UCF, West Virginia, Texas Tech
If you're surprised not to see TCU on this list just two seasons removed from being national runner-up, well, Sonny Dykes has work to do with that program.
On paper, Kansas should be the best of this bunch with coach Lance Leipold capable of beating anybody any weekend as long as Jalon Daniels is healthy. Iowa State showed flashes of returning to the upper echelons of the conference at times a year ago.
While West Virginia's Neal Brown saved his hot-seat status with a nine-win season, what does he have in store for an encore? Is it sustainable? Texas Tech was super-young under second-year coach Joey McGuire, but the Red Raiders have a lot to be excited about.
Then there's all that speed Gus Malzahn has assembled at UCF. It may be a bit of a surprise for any of these teams but the Jayhawks to land in the conference title game, but they all have reasons for hope that they can make a logical leap. Don't sleep on the Knights.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Coaches on the Hot Seat
4 of 9
Dave Aranda, Baylor Bears
Aranda can thank Arkansas coach Sam Pittman, or he would have the hottest seat in the sport. If it weren't for a 12-win 2021 season, he'd probably be out of Waco already.
Since then, it's been disastrous. The Bears are 9-16 and coming off a three-win season. When you couple that with a 2-7 COVID-shortened '20 campaign, Aranda's second season seems like the outlier here.
He isn't recruiting well enough in the Lone Star State, and he isn't competitive on the field. If it doesn't turn around quickly, he may not last the season.
Kalani Sitake, BYU Cougars
This is another coach who was one of the hottest names in coaching circles just a couple of seasons ago when Zach Wilson was flinging darts all over the field. In 2020-21, the Cougars were a combined 21-4.
But they reeled to an eight-win season in '22, and last year, they fell to 5-7 in their first season in the Big 12. Sitake has a lot more breathing room than Aranda, but that taste of winning set the bar high in Provo. He needs to prove he can hang in the Power Four.
If not, he will be in the conversation to be let go after the season.
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati Bearcats
One of the most puzzling hires a season ago was Cincinnati replacing Luke Fickell with Satterfield. They essentially kept him from getting fired from his job at Louisville, allowing him an outlet to leave.
Satterfield hasn't ever really captured the magic he had as a mid-major coach at powerhouse Appalachian State. His best season with the Cardinals was 8-5 in 2019, and it went downhill every year he was there.
Last season with the Bearcats, he won three. The days of the College Football Playoff in the Queen City are long forgotten. He may have a hotter seat than Sitake.
Neal Brown, West Virginia Mountaineers
A year ago, Brown had the warmest cheeks on this list. But the Mountaineers went out and reeled off a nine-win season a year ago and looked good doing it on both sides of the ball.
Brown was an exceptional coach in the Group of Five with Troy, but he hasn't replicated that yet in Morgantown. Last season was by far his best, and he has earned a lot of grace with that strong showing.
But if the Mountaineers are middling again, the consternation could return. How firm is his footing right now?
Best Games on Tap
5 of 9
Non-Conference Games
Aug. 30: TCU at Stanford
Aug. 31: Penn State at West Virginia
Sep. 6: BYU at SMU
Sep. 7: Arkansas at Oklahoma State; Iowa State at Iowa; Kansas at Illinois; Colorado at Nebraska; Houston at Oklahoma
Sep. 13: Arizona at Kansas State* (though both these teams are Big 12 counterparts, this, along with Utah-Baylor will be considered a nonconference game because it was scheduled before the "new-look" Big 12.
Sep. 21: TCU at SMU
Oct. 5: UCF at Florida
This is a whole bunch of "meh" when it comes to out-of-conference scheduling in the Big 12 this year. But if you look closely, there is some excitement, starting with Penn State heading to West Virginia in Week 1. What an opportunity for the Mountaineers.
TCU and BYU have major chances to get back on track against new-look ACC opponents the first two weekends, too.
On Sep. 7, the Cowboys host Arkansas in a game for the league to get some clout against the SEC. Same goes for Houston heading to Oklahoma. The battle of the Wildcats on Sep. 13 is going to be very intriguing, setting us up for two weeks later when the four probable beasts of the league square off.
Iowa-Iowa State is always interesting, even if it isn't aesthetically pleasing, and Coach Prime's Buffaloes head to Nebraska for a massive game that could jump-start the trajectory of both programs' seasons, continuing to renew that old rivalry.
UCF and Florida should be a fun one in early October, too, once conference season has begun. There isn't a whole lot of substance here, but if you look closely, there are some fun matchups.
Top Conference Tilts
Sep. 21: Utah at Oklahoma State; Kansas at West Virginia
Sep. 28: Arizona at Utah; Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Oct. 5: Texas Tech at Arizona
Oct. 19: Kansas State at West Virginia
Oct. 26: Kansas at Kansas State
Nov. 2: Arizona at UCF; Texas Tech at Iowa State
Nov. 23: UCF at West Virginia
Nov. 30: Oklahoma State at Colorado; Utah at UCF
You can't mess around this year in the Big 12. There are a bunch of "prove-it" games right away once conference season starts.
Newcomers Arizona and Utah get together in Salt Lake City on Sep. 27, while Oklahoma State travels to the "Little Apple" to take on K-State.
There are games that will divide the contenders and pretenders, too, like the Oct. 26 matchup between Kansas and Kansas State, and we will know if UCF is for real in November with important games hosting Arizona and Utah while traveling to West Virginia.
Speaking of Morgantown, the road to the title runs through there as the Mountaineers host Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State and UCF.
Best Offense: Arizona Wildcats
6 of 9
The reason Brent Brennan is smiling in the picture above is because he's going from a Group of Five program in San Jose State that he turned from nothing into a quality team to an Arizona squad with all the offensive firepower in the world.
Wouldn't you be smiling?
This is a dude who helped mold Nick Starkel and Chevan Cordeiro into strong signal-callers with the Spartans, and now he gets to work with redshirt sophomore phenom Noah Fifita and his high school teammate, Tetairoa McMillan, who is one of the most physical presences in the nation at receiver.
That's not all the Wildcats have on that side of the ball, though. Colorado transfer Montana Lemonious-Craig and tight end Keyan Burnett should help McMillan advance the offense.
New Mexico transfer RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt eclipsed 1,100 yards and scored 17 touchdowns a season ago, and he will be part of a backfield-by-committee to replace Jonah Coleman, who left with Jedd Fisch for Washington.
The offensive line could be a strength with tackles Jonah Savaiinaea and Raymond Pulido, center Josh Baker and guard Wendell Moe back as cogs who were starting or firmly in the rotation a season ago. But replacing first-round pick Jordan Morgan won't be easy.
Brennan is a great offensive mind, and while there are several teams that could stake a claim to be manning this list, it's tough to go against the Wildcats and first-year coordinator Dino Babers. Watch out for fireworks.
Best Defense: Kansas State Wildcats
7 of 9
A year ago, the Kansas State Wildcats defense may not have quite been elite, but it was extremely strong just the same.
They finished the season second in the Big 12 (behind departed Texas) in scoring defense, allowing just 21 points per game, and third in total defense behind the Longhorns and Iowa State.
The nucleus of that unit is back for defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman, and that's huge news for a team that should contend for the conference title and the playoffs. It's hard for even an old-school coordinator not to gush.
When asked if this was the deepest group he's had, Klanderman told the Kansas State Collegian's Toby Hammes: ""[It's] hard to say because I haven't seen some of those guys that we're counting on in-game yet, but ability-wise, there's no question about it."
The quality starts in the secondary where the Wildcats are loaded, led by cornerbacks Keenan Garber and Jacob Parrish and safeties Marques Sigle and VJ Payne. All those guys are juniors, seniors or graduates.
Overall, the Wildcats return five of their top seven tacklers from a season ago. When you can replace transfers like Kobe Savage (Oregon) and Will Lee III (Texas A&M) you're doing pretty well.
At linebacker and along the defensive front, depth is the word here, too. According to The Mercury's Tim Everson, K-State could rotate six or seven defensive ends. In today's transfer portal world, that's extremely uncommon. This defense is built for a title run.
Projected Standings
8 of 9
Bowl-Eligible Teams
Utah (11-1 overall, 8-1 conference)
Kansas State (11-1, 8-1)
Oklahoma State (10-2, 7-2)
Arizona (9-3, 7-2)
Kansas (9-3, 6-3)
UCF (9-3, 7-2)
West Virginia (8-4, 6-3)
Texas Tech (8-4, 5-4)
Iowa State (7-5, 5-4)
TCU (6-6, 4-5)
Watching Postseason
Colorado (5-7, 3-6)
Arizona State (4-8, 2-7)
Cincinnati (4-8, 1-8)
BYU (3-9, 1-8)
Baylor (3-9, 1-8)
Houston (2-10, 1-8)
Projected Big 12 Championship: Utah vs. Kansas State
9 of 9
You could pick Oklahoma State here, and it wouldn't be a reach at all. UCF and Kansas have the potential to crash the party, and, boy, would that be a fun story or what?
Don't sleep on West Virginia or Texas Tech, either.
But we're going with the status quo here and picking the last league winner who is still a member participant and the one newcomer that went to back-to-back Rose Bowls before an injury-plagued '23 season took them off the table.
It's going to be Utah versus Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game, and while defense normally wins championships (and the Wildcats have the top one in the league), coach Kyle Whittingham's Utes aren't bad on that side of the ball, either.
If Cam Rising is healthy, he is the type of dude who can will his team to win, and the Utes have weapons all over the offense like USC transfer pass-catcher Dorian Singer, Florida State transfer Mycah Pittman and Syracuse transfer Damien Alford to go along with veteran Money Parks.
Following an injury-riddled season, tight end Brant Kuithe is the best offensive player you've forgotten about, and while the running backs are unproven, Whittingham always has a stable of capable runners.
While it's easy to love electrifying K-State quarterback Avery Johnson and the addition of transfer running back Dylan Edwards to go alongside DJ Giddens, the Utes should win a close one and announce their arrival with a playoff berth.
All stats courtesy of CFBStats and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted. Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brad Shepard on Twitter, @Brad_Shepard.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
