MLB Home Run Derby 2024 Preview and Predictions
Eight of Major League Baseball's top sluggers will be taking their talents to the Texas Rangers' Globe Life Field on Monday night for the 2024 Home Run Derby.
There were 341 home runs hit in last year's derby, so don't blink.
You might miss something awesome.
On the one hand, this is admittedly not the dream field we were hoping for. There's no Aaron Judge. No Shohei Ohtani. No Vladimir "reigning derby champ and lightning rod for trade rumors" Guerrero Jr. No Julio Rodríguez. And the octet only features one of the 24 players who have hit at least one 450-foot homer this season.
On the other hand, there's still some serious mashing star power in this year's field, and, let's be honest, you could put Ben Revere, Juan Pierre and Luis Arraez in the Home Run Derby and we'd probably still watch it.
What should we expect from this year's field, though?
We're going to tackle the rule changes made for this year's derby and discuss each of the eight sluggers (in alphabetical order) before making some predictions bound to go horribly awry.
2024 Home Run Derby Rules/Format
1 of 10
Before we dive into clips of moonshots and predictions of those to come, we need to talk about the new rules/format.
Say sayonara to seeding and head-to-head matchups in the first round. It is now a free-for-all in which the top four totals advance to the semifinals.
(Best I can tell, though, they haven't announced a slugging order for the first round? This would be wonderful information to have, since the last couple of hitters will have an actual target of home runs needed to advance while the first four just have to hope they can do enough hacking to survive.)
If and when there is a tie in the first round, the player with the longest home run wins that tiebreaker and is either the one who advances or the one who gets a better seed in the semifinals.
Because, yes, after the first round, it's back to the seeding and knockout style that we're used to seeing. The player who hits the most home runs in the first round gets matched up with the one with the fourth-highest total, while the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds also go mano e mano in the semifinals.
For both the first round and the semifinals, there is both a time limit (three minutes) and a pitch limit (40 pitches). After the player reaches his limit in one or the other, it's time for the convoluted bonus pitches session. (Each hitter is also allotted one 45-second timeout to be used during the three-minute window.)
For the bonus, there is neither a timer nor a pitch limit. Instead, each player gets bonus pitches until he records three outs—with an additional out earned if he hits at least one home run of 425 or more feet during the bonus period. (The bonus period works the same for all three rounds.)
In the championship round, the time limit drops to two minutes and the pitch limit drops to 27.
And let's not forget about swing-offs. If there's a tie in either the championship or in one of the semifinal matchups, each player gets another 60-second period (no bonus time and no timeouts). If they're still tied after that 'overtime' session, they'll alternate three-swing swing-offs until the tie is broken.
Got all that? Yeah, me neither. But it'll mostly make sense while we're watching it.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
2 of 10
2024 Home Run Count: 18
Biggest Blasts
- 446 feet off Kyle Finnegan on June 4
- 439 feet off Taijuan Walker on May 16
- 427 feet off Andrew Heaney on June 19
On several levels, it's awesome that Pete Alonso is back in the Home Run Derby.
For starters, it's just what he does. Save for 2020 when there was no All-Star Break, Alonso has competed in the derby in every season of his MLB career, winning as a rookie in 2019 and again in 2021.
All told, the Polar Bear has hit 195 home runs in the derby portion of his career.
Basically, he is to home run derbies what Joey Chestnut is to hot dog eating competitions, and thank goodness we got one of those legends to run it back again this year.
The other reason we needed Alonso in the Home Run Derby is because it's fun to have at least one player who sparks a conversation about whether this will be his last hurrah with this team before getting traded in a few weeks.
Juan Soto did get traded from Washington to San Diego shortly after winning the 2022 derby. Joey Gallo didn't win it in 2021, but he was traded from the Rangers to the Yankees two weeks after competing in it. And though there was never a realistic chance they were going to trade him away, Bryce Harper winning the derby in D.C. a few months before he hit free agency was an unforgettable scene.
At this point, right on the postseason cut line, it's hard to imagine the Mets would part with their soon-to-be-free-agent first baseman. But his name keeps popping up as a trade target, and it's going to be a thing that gets discussed while he's mashing taters Monday night.
And after back-to-back years getting eliminated by Julio Rodríguez, Alonso has to be thrilled that his kryptonite isn't part of this year's field.
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
3 of 10
2024 Home Run Count: 11
Biggest Blasts
- 427 feet off Yonny Chirinos on June 30
- 420 feet off Elvis Peguero on June 4
- 417 feet off Tommy Henry on June 22
Without a close runner-up, Alec Bohm is the biggest underdog in this competition.
It was kind of shocking when it was announced that he would be part of the field.
And we say that with all due respect. Bohm is having a spectacular season, absolutely worthy of starting at third base in the All-Star Game. He is leading the majors with 31 doubles and ranks top five in the National League in both hits and RBI.
This isn't the Doubles Derby, though, and his .991 OPS w/RISP isn't worth a hill of beans in this event.
Even if it were exclusively a Philadelphia Phillies Home Run Derby, Bohm maybe wouldn't be a top-seven candidate. He has just 11 home runs this season, which is the fewest in the field by a margin of five. Moreover, his max home run distance (427' feet) is the shortest of the eight players, and he has never hit more than 20 in a season.
Maybe he surprises us, though, and uses his 6'5" frame to put on one heck of an exhibition.
Adolis García, Texas Rangers
4 of 10
2024 Home Run Count: 17
Biggest Blasts
- 428 feet off Chris Devenski on April 1
- 416 feet off Bryce Miller on April 24
- 410 feet off Patrick Sandoval on May 18
Along with Pete Alonso and José Ramírez, Adolis García is one of three hitters in this year's field who has competed in the Home Run Derby before.
It didn't go well, though. He was immediately ousted in the first round last year by Randy Arozarena by a touchdown margin (24-17).
With the Texas Rangers hosting this year's All-Star Game, though, García decided to give it another try, this time as the hometown favorite.
For his sake, here's hoping he sees the ball better at Globe Life Field than he has thus far this season, batting .195 and slugging just .389 in 41 home games to date.
Look no further than last October for evidence of what García can do when he gets on a heater, though.
In the first 13 games of Texas' World Series run, he mashed eight home runs and set the single postseason record for RBI with 22. And early this spring, it looked like he was picking up right where he left off, homering in three of his first four games and finishing April with a .932 OPS.
If that version of García resurfaces Monday night, look out.
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
5 of 10
2024 Home Run Count: 27
Biggest Blasts
- 430 feet off Ryan Pepiot on June 10
- 424 feet off Carlos Carrasco on June 26
- 422 feet off Kutter Crawford on May 29
Home run leaders and MVP favorites Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani both elected not to partake in this year's Home Run Derby.
At least we got Gunnar Henderson, though.
The reigning AL Rookie of the Year has already darn near matched his home run total from last season, increasing by nearly 100 points that which was already a solid slugging percentage.
Henderson has one of those smooth swings that seems to be tailor-made for the Home Run Derby. Not saying he's Ken Griffey Jr., but when fatigue starts to set in for some of these competitors, Henderson might just be getting warmed up.
Since becoming the first player to agree to partake in this year's derby, though, Henderson has been in a bit of a funk. The day of the announcement (June 30), he went 0-for-4 with four whiffs. He has just one home run in his last 15 games.
Still, he is a special talent and arguably the second-most likely player to win this thing behind Alonso.
If he does, it certainly wouldn't hurt his chances of chasing down Judge in the AL MVP race.
Teoscar Hernández, Los Angeles Dodgers
6 of 10
2024 Home Run Count: 19
Biggest Blasts
- 431 feet off Tyler Rogers on April 1
- 424 feet off Tommy Kahnle on June 8
- 423 feet off Victor Vodnik on June 18
What a pre-free agency showcase this could be for the 31-year-old slugger who is thriving on his one-year deal with the Dodgers.
Hernández has been pivotal for Los Angeles, trailing only Shohei Ohtani for the team lead in home runs. And in an outfield that has otherwise been both banged up and mostly replaceable, he has been the flexible metronome, playing nearly every game in either left or right field and bouncing all over the middle of the lineup.
He has hit at least 25 home runs in each of the past four 162-game seasons, and he was on track for nearly twice that many in 2020 with 16 dingers in 50 games played. But his career high is 32, which he is on pace to top.
However, that pace is a far cry from what it was a month ago, as Hernández has homered just twice since June 11—an unfortunately timed drought for the Mookie Betts-less, starting-rotation-falling-apart Dodgers, who have gone just 14-14 in those 28 games.
Some players opt out of the derby because they're worried it might mess up their swing. Hernández—the final player to accept the invitation to do the derby—might be hoping it fixes his swing.
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
7 of 10
2024 Home Run Count: 26
Biggest Blasts
- 446 feet off Matt Andriese on April 12
- 442 feet off Hunter Harvey on June 6
- 442 feet off Julio Teheran on April 8
Where would the Atlanta Braves be right now without Marcell Ozuna?
Austin Riley has been en fuego over the past month, but as far as full-season stats go, Ozuna is the only Atlanta hitter with an OPS north of .800, sitting at .965.
They had seven of their nine regulars finish above .800 last season, but now he is almost single-handedly keeping that offense just competent enough to still be in great shape for a spot in the postseason.
Ozuna stormed out of the gates like a bat out of hell, mashing nine home runs in the team's first 20 games. One eighth of the way through the campaign, he was on pace to match Barry Bonds' single season record of 73 home runs.
Obviously, he has cooled off some since then, but not drastically so. He had a .920 OPS over the course of his next 74 contests, starting at DH in every single Atlanta game thus far.
This isn't new from Ozuna, though. He had 37 home runs and drove in 124 runs in 2017. Three years after that, he led the NL with 18 home runs and 56 RBI, which was a 162-game pace of 49 and 151, respectively. And then last year, he set a career high with 40 home runs.
The only thing that's new is that he has strung together two consecutive great seasons and that he is doing the derby for the first time.
José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians
8 of 10
2024 Home Run Count: 23
Biggest Blasts
- 436 feet off Alec Marsh on June 28
- 431 feet off Cade Povich on June 24
- 422 feet off Brady Singer on June 6
José Ramírez competed in the Home Run Derby in 2022, but he probably shouldn't have.
He suffered a torn ligament in his right thumb in mid-June of that season and opted to play through the pain and have the surgery in the offseason. At the time of the injury, he was batting .305/.397/.642, on pace for 43 home runs and 167 RBI. After it, he still hit an impressive .264/.329/.437 with 162-game paces of 22 home runs and 107 RBI.
But he wasn't quite the same, and he hit fewer home runs in the first round of the Home Run Derby than any other player in that year's field.
He's back to his old self, though, including a 35-game stretch from mid-May through late-June in which he hit 14 home runs and slugged .688 while the Guardians solidified themselves as a very real threat to win the World Series.
The whole "I'm better than Barry Bonds" quote from late May got a bit blown out of proportion, but Ramírez could join Bonds in the annals of derby champions. (Bonds competed in the exhibition six times in his career, winning it once in 1996.)
The oddsmakers aren't buying it, though. Aside from Alec Bohm at +1600, Ramírez has the longest odds of winning the derby at +1300.
That feels...disrespectful.
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
9 of 10
2024 Home Run Count: 16
Biggest Blasts
- 468 feet off Casey Mize on May 21
- 454 feet off Triston McKenzie on June 4
- 440 feet off Dean Kremer on April 1
Bobby Witt Jr. hit the fourth-longest home run thus far in the 2024 season, trailing only Shohei Ohtani (476), Aaron Judge (473) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (471) on that leaderboard.
But even if you take away the Casey Mize splitter that Witt annihilated, he still has the longest home run in the derby field with his second-biggest blast which came off Triston McKenzie. (He also had a 434-foot homer off McKenzie earlier in that same game.)
We shall see if the 24-year-old, $289 million shortstop can win the derby, but you can just about take it to the bank that he's going to hit a couple of ridiculous tank jobs.
Unlike some of the sluggers who we've previously mentioned are slumping their way into the All-Star Break, Witt is heading into the derby with a bat that might actually be on fire. He entered Sunday 20-for-44 with four home runs over his last 11 games.
With any luck, he'll ride that momentum into a championship round showdown with Gunnar Henderson, because deciding between those two for starting shortstop on the American League roster was by far the most difficult part of filling out a ballot this year.
If that matchup does come to pass, can we make an emergency ruling that the victor gets the start on Tuesday?
Predictions
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First-Round Predictions
Two-time champion Pete Alonso is the favorite to win the Home Run Derby, and it sure feels like a safe bet that he will at least make the semifinals. It took ridiculous performances by Julio Rodríguez (31 HR in the 2022 semifinals, 41 HR in the first round last year) to eliminate the Polar Bear, but he can't get immediately bounced by a bad matchup this year. Maybe he won't hit the most home runs in the first round (+380), but he will at least advance to the knockout portion of the event (-210).
The two shortstops with AL MVP aspirations will join the derby veteran in the semifinals.
Gunnar Henderson (-145 to make semifinals) and Bobby Witt Jr. (-150) are both going to put on a show in the first round, as the one staple in recent years has been young stars at least surviving into the semifinals. In 2022, the two youngest competitors (Guerrero and Rodríguez) met in the finals. In both 2021 and 2023, the two youngest squared off in the semifinals. And in 2019, all three of the youngest sluggers made it to the semifinals.
For semifinalist No. 4, Marcell Ozuna (-185) has the best odds, but give us José Ramírez (+160). He was injured when he did the derby two years ago, but he still hit 17 home runs and learned a little something about how to pace yourself for the frenzy.
Ramírez will sneak in as the No. 4 seed, matched up in the semifinals with Henderson after he hits the most dingers in the first round (+500).
(PSA: If you're going to bet on the derby, whatever you do, do not manually parlay first round odds. There's a "name the semifinalists" option on DraftKings where Alonso, Henderson, Witt and Ramírez is available at +2200, whereas parlaying the four would only pay out at +1189. You're welcome.)
Semifinals Predictions
Henderson takes care of business against Ramírez in the first matchup, before Alonso and Witt steal the show with their semifinal showdown.
If there's going to be a home run of 485 or more feet (-110), it's probably in that battle. Also feels like a great place for a swing-off (+320). But let's go with Witt emerging victorious and setting up what is arguably the most intriguing of the possible championship matchups.
Championship Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. over Gunnar Henderson (+1500)
Fun fact: I never get this right.
Like, not even close to right.
Last year, I got all four first-round matchups correct, but missed both semifinals. In 2022, my pick of Alonso over Ramírez came nowhere close to fruition. And while I didn't have this assignment in 2021, my championship prediction would have been Shohei Ohtani vs. Joey Gallo, neither of whom survived the first round.
But here's hoping this is the year I finally get one right, because an AL shortstop matchup would be incredible theater.
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