MLB Home Run Derby 2023 Preview and Predictions for Stacked Bracket
Confessions of a Baseball-aholic: I don't always watch Major League Baseball's All-Star Game, but I do always watch the Home Run Derby.
It's the most entertaining exhibition spectacle in sports.
Yes, even better than the NBA's Slam Dunk contest.
And when you inevitably tune in Monday night for the 2023 rendition of moonshots, taters and tank jobs, there will be no shortage of star power or storyline intrigue.
As a quick reminder of the format, it's a head-to-head bracket in which the better-seeded hitter will bat second in each round. (Seeds were based on home run total through July 4, with tiebreakers based on who had hit the most home runs from June 15 through July 4.)
For the first two rounds, each hitter gets three minutes—two minutes in the championship—during which time he is allowed one 45-second timeout while trying to hit as many home runs as possible. That initial two- or three-minute period will be followed by either a 30-second segment of bonus time or a 60-second segment, depending on whether the player hits two home runs that travels at least 440 feet during the first two or three minutes. No timeouts during bonus time. Most home runs advances. And if at any point the second hitter pulls ahead of the first hitter, the round ends right then and there.
In the case of a tie, each hitter gets another 60 seconds (no timeouts). And if there's still a tie after 60 seconds, they'll do three-swing swing-offs until the tie is finally broken. [There were multiple swing-offs in the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Joc Pederson classic from 2019.]
With that out of the way, let's talk about each participant in this year's Derby, including video clips of the three longest home runs each player has hit this season, followed by our round-by-round predictions of how it'll all play out.
No. 1 Seed: Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox
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2023 Home Run Count: 26
Biggest Blasts
- 450 feet off Chris Bassitt on July 4
- 444 feet off Jaime Barria on June 28
- 430 feet off Jordan Lyles on May 9
One thing worth noting about Luis Robert Jr.'s most explosive home runs is that they all came on off-speed pitches.
It's one thing to square up a 100 MPH fastball and send it a mile—which Robert did on a 418-foot opposite field home run off Hunter Greene on May 5—but taking a 73.5 MPH sweeper from Chris Bassitt and crushing it 450 feet could be a fitting preview of a memorable derby performance.
With 26 home runs on the year, the 25-year-old centerfielder has already left his previous career best of 13 in the dust. Heck, he hit 11 just from June 8-30—almost fittingly during a 22-game stretch in which the White Sox went 9-13 to fade even further into oblivion.
Last year's Home Run Derby champion (Juan Soto) played for a team that was 32 games below .500 at the All-Star Break. At least Chicago isn't that bad, and at least we won't have to spend the entirety of this derby hearing about trade possibilities, as Robert (signed through 2027) is one of the few White Sox players that definitely won't be going anywhere.
Hopefully Robert at least makes it out of the first round, though. Would be nice to give those fans something to cheer about before half of the team gets scrapped for prospects.
No. 2 Seed: Pete Alonso, New York Mets
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2023 Home Run Count: 26
Biggest Blasts
We're only listing the three longest taters by each player, but Pete Alonso has mashed a total of seven home runs to left-center this season that traveled at least 430 feet.
But annual Home Run Derby viewers should be in no way surprised by this information, as the Polar Bear has annihilated more than a few of the 174 home runs that he hit between the 2019, 2021 and 2022 derbies.
Alonso won it in both 2019 and 2021 before getting smoked by Julio Rodríguez in last year's semifinals.
He's back for another go at matching Ken Griffey Jr. (1994, 1998 and 1999) as the only player to win three derbies.
And with the way Alonso is swinging it this season, why shouldn't he win?
He hasn't come anywhere close to keeping up his pace from early in the year, when 10 home runs in 21 games put him on a trajectory for 77. But only Shohei Ohtani (homering in 8.0 percent of plate appearances) is lapping the bases more frequently than Alonso (7.8 percent), and Ohtani unfortunately declined to compete in the derby yet again.
No. 3 Seed: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2023 Home Run Count: 26
Biggest Blasts
- 426 feet off Tim Hill on May 12
- 422 feet off Alec Marsh on June 30
- 420 feet off J.P. France on June 23
For both Luis Robert Jr. and Pete Alonso, the bonus 30 seconds in a round for hitting two home runs that travel at least 440 feet shouldn't be much of a problem.
But for Mookie Betts, it might be an issue, as he hasn't hit a home run 430 feet since September 2019, let alone 440 feet. (Betts has also hit all of his home runs this season to left of center, so here's hoping his pitcher keeps everything on the inner half of the plate for optimal pulling.)
That doesn't mean he can't annihilate a baseball. Maybe he has been saving up his biggest swings for what will be the first derby of his career at 30 years old.
But he hasn't done it in a game in the past few years.
Still, 26 home runs is mighty impressive, regardless of how far each one traveled. And Betts was clubbing them quite well from May 31 through July 8, hitting 15 home runs in the span of 33 games.
If he can get into that kind of groove Monday night in Seattle, who needs an extra 30 seconds?
No. 4 Seed: Adolis García, Texas Rangers
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2023 Home Run Count: 23
Biggest Blasts
- 432 feet off Shintaro Fujinami on April 22
- 424 feet off Mason Englert on June 26
- 421 feet off Kyle Gibson on April 4
What's tantalizing about Adolis García as a Home Run Derby participant is his power to all fields.
Sure, he mostly pulls his home runs. Who doesn't? But this right-handed slugger has hit eight home runs to right of center.
He has also hit quite a few "should have been" homers this season.
Per Baseball Savant, García has had more batted balls (26) that would have been gone in 8-29 parks than any other player, plus four no-doubters that would have been home runs anywhere. The most painful of the "mostly gones" was the flyout in Pittsburgh that would have been a home run in every other MLB stadium.
If all of his ABs had taken place at T-Mobile Park, García would have 29 home runs right now instead of 23.
Maybe that matters. Maybe not.
Or maybe it matters that García is the only player in this year's derby field to have had a three-HR game this season, doing so against the A's on April 22. He also had a three-game stretch with four home runs in mid May, and homered in three straight games in late June.
It's a different kind of rhythm, but winning a derby is all about being able to get into a groove. Which García can do.
No. 5 Seed: Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
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2023 Home Run Count: 16
Biggest Blasts
- 436 feet off Joey Wentz on April 2
- 433 feet off Jimmy Lambert on April 29
- 422 feet off Gerrit Cole on May 12 AND 422 feet off Jhony Brito on May 5
Could have picked any number of Rays to do the derby this year.
Jose Siri has the same number of home runs as Randy Arozarena, and in 164 fewer plate appearances. Isaac Paredes (16), Luke Raley (15), Yandy Díaz (13), Josh Lowe (12) and Wander Franco (11) are all in double figures.
But Arozarena will be the man of the hour, two years removed from winning 2021 AL Rookie of the Year and three years removed from that historic 10-HR run through the 2020 postseason.
To this point, his career high is 20 home runs, set in 2021 and matched last season. He should surpass that mark before the end of July, and should give Adolis García a good battle in a first-round matchup between Cuban All-Stars.
Like García, Arozarena has good power to all fields. And it's a good thing they put a net in front of the ray tank in right-center at Tropicana Field, or else the opposite field bomb that Arozarena hit off Jhony Brito on May 5 could have resulted in the tragic death of a stingray.
Like Julio Rodriguez last year, perhaps a big run in the derby could be the catalyst for Arozarena getting his big pay day. But it already might be too late for the small-market Rays to make that happen.
No. 6 Seed: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
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2023 Home Run Count: 13
Biggest Blasts
- 450 feet off Nick Pivetta on May 3
- 437 feet off Austin Pruitt on June 24 (after a 434 footer the previous day)
- 436 feet off Jordan Lyles on April 6
Pete Alonso won the 2019 Home Run Derby, but it was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (and Joc Pederson) who put on the unforgettable show.
After destroying Matt Chapman 29-13 in the first round, Guerrero bested Pederson 40-39 after several tiebreakers. He still somehow had enough left in the tank to hit 22 home runs in the championship, but Alonso caught fire and won with plenty of time to spare.
But with 91 home runs that year, Guerrero still holds the all-time derby record, also with plenty of room to spare. Julio Rodríguez's 81 last year was the only other instance of a player eclipsing 75.
And after a several-year hiatus, Guerrero is back to cement his legacy.
He only has 13 home runs this season, but he sure has obliterated some baseballs. In addition to the four listed above, he has gone 413 feet, 417 feet and 424 feet, meaning more than half of his homers have traveled more than 410 feet.
We mentioned that Mookie Betts might not be able to get the 30 bonus seconds for hitting multiple 440-foot homers, but Guerrero figures to get there in a hurry.
No. 7 Seed: Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners
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2023 Home Run Count: 13
Biggest Blasts
- 454 feet off Brandon Bielak on May 7
- 436 feet off Steven Wilson on June 6
- 421 feet off Patrick Sandoval on June 10
Can the hometown hero pull off the upset?
Bryce Harper won the Home Run Derby for the Nationals at National Park in 2018, with Todd Frazier doing the same for the Reds at Great American Ballpark in 2015. It was sort of a last hurrah for those guys, though, as they both left town a few months later as free agents.
Julio Rodríguez isn't going anywhere for a long time, signed with the Mariners through at least 2029. And if they're allowed through security, there should be quite a few Aquaman tridents at T-Mobile Park.
Like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Rodríguez has only hit 13 home runs this season, but several of them have been mammoth, and no one can question his legitimacy as a derby contender in light of how well he did his last time in the competition.
For the first two rounds last year, Rodríguez mercilessly lapped the field. His 32 home runs in the first round were eight more than the closest challenger (Corey Seager's 24.) And then he did it again the next round, hitting 31 while the next-closest total was Pete Alonso at 23. But by the championship round, he was running on fumes and couldn't quite bring home the title.
Perhaps he learned from the experience, though, and is now better prepared for the physical toll of this power swinging marathon.
No. 8 Seed: Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
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2023 Home Run Count: 12
Biggest Blasts
- 461 feet off Cole Sands on July 9
- 424 feet off Chris Devenski on May 18
- 408 feet off Jimmy Cordero on April 9
Not only does Adley Rutschman have the fewest home runs (both this season and in MLB career) among the eight-man derby field, but he has just two home runs in 2023 that have traveled at least 410 feet.
Among the derby field, he does have the longest home run of the season, and he did decimate that ball barely 24 hours before the start of the derby. However, the relative lack of deep balls is concerning. It doesn't make him quite as much of an underdog as Albert Pujols was last season, but it's not a promising sign.
Rutschman did have a few long blasts last year, though, including one off the catwalk in Tampa Bay that would have traveled an estimated 439 feet. So don't rule out the possibility of some moonshots.
This switch-hitting catcher has done the majority of his slugging as a lefty and figures to be digging his cleats into that batter's box Monday night.
But wouldn't it be fun if he took his timeout midway through the first round and hopped to the other side of the plate?
Is there a rule against that?
Can he also have a left-handed pitcher ready to quickly sub in so the ball is coming in from the same arm slot that he's used to seeing when batting right-handed?
A switch hitter has never outright won the Home Run Derby, and maybe it's because a switch hitter has never (in my memory, at least) tried to take advantage of being a switch hitter in the derby. Maybe Rutschman will be the first.
Betting Odds
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To Win Home Run Derby:
Pete Alonso +300
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +360
Luis Robert Jr. +500
Julio Rodríguez +550
Adolis García +650
Randy Arozarena +950
Mookie Betts +1000
Adley Rutschman +1700
It's kind of absurd how many different ways you can bet on the Home Run Derby.
Longest home run of the night? Over/Under 490.5 feet. I'd guess under, while of course rooting for the over.
League of winning player? The National League's Alonso is the favorite, but the American League is a heavy -285 favorite, since there are six AL players in the eight-man field.
Player to hit the most home runs in the first round? Bit of a tricky one there because you have to account for the fact that the better seed bats second in each matchup and can only hit a maximum of one more than his opponent hits. As such, No. 6 seed Guerrero (+280) and No. 7 seed Rodríguez (+370) are the favorites, while No. 1 seed Robert (+900) has the longest odds, limited by how well Rutschman performs.
You can also do a straight forecast in which Alonso over Robert in the championship is the most likely outcome at +950, while Rutschman over Betts, Betts over Rutschman or Rutschman over Rodríguez would pay out at +6000.
But the main bet is just a straight up wager on who wins the whole thing.
Arozarena at +950 is unquestionably the most intriguing value bet. Then again, I felt the same way about last year's No. 5 seed, only to watch José Ramírez hit fewer first-round home runs than any other player en route to an immediate exit. So, you know, grain of salt.
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings.)
First- Round Predictions
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No. 1 Luis Robert Jr. (-215) over No. 8 Adley Rutschman
The No. 8 seed has toppled the No. 1 seed in each of the past five derbies, including Albert Pujols stunning Kyle Schwarber in the first round last year. But I believe that streak comes to an end. Unless this suddenly turns into a competition of who can draw the most walks. Rutschman would destroy Robert in that game.
No. 7 Julio Rodríguez (+140) over No. 2 Pete Alonso
Hands down, this is the first-round matchup everyone is most excited to watch. Last year, Rodríguez became the first player in eight tries to defeat Alonso in a Home Run Derby. And in front of the Seattle faithful, he'll be extra motivated to do it again. Maybe that turns into too much pressure and he immediately flames out with something like 15 home runs. But it's more likely (IMHO) that J-Rod harnesses the electricity in T-Mobile Park to mash 30+ taters and send the Polar Bear—who has only hit more than 23 home runs in a round once in his illustrious derby career—packing.
No. 6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-210) over No. 3 Mookie Betts
Simply put: I believe the bonus time factor is going to be a problem from which Betts cannot recover against Guerrero. And while I love Betts and would put him behind only Ronald Acuña Jr. in a current ranking of NL MVP candidates, I have a hard time believing that a 5'9", 180-pound guy is going to go out there and out-mash (possibly in 30 fewer seconds) the man who hit 91 home runs in this event four years ago.
No. 5 Randy Arozarena (+155) over No. 4 Adolis García
Rodríguez vs. Alonso is the big draw, but this sure feels like the first-round matchup most likely to necessitate a tiebreaker. García has been hotter as of late, hitting seven home runs since June 23 to Arozarena's two. But it seems like every year, there's a somewhat nationally underappreciated, budding star who puts on a show in the Home Run Derby, and Arozarena fits the bill this year.
Semifinals and Championship Predictions
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No. 1 Luis Robert Jr. (+170 to reach finals) over No. 5 Randy Arozarena
Yeah, I just nominated Arozarena as the breakout star of the 2023 Home Run Derby, but maybe this is actually Robert's time to step into the spotlight. Goodness knows he could be out to prove something after getting egregiously disrespected in the fan vote for the All-Star Game, not even placing top 20 among AL outfielders. Even the players disrespected Robert, as the recently named replacements for Aaron Judge and Mike Trout in the starting lineup were Adolis García and Austin Hays based on player balloting. How far can he hit that chip on his shoulder?
No. 7 Julio Rodríguez (+290 to reach finals) over No. 6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The all-time leader for home runs in a single derby against the player who ranks No. 2 on that list? Yes, please. And if he isn't too gassed from eliminating Alonso in the first round, getting to go first as the worse seed might actually work as an advantage for Rodríguez in this battle of former derby highlight reels. Guerrero was the No. 8 seed the only other time he competed and has never stepped up to the plate knowing the number he needed to advance. And if that number is at least 25, he might be pressing too much to get there.
No. 1 Luis Robert Jr. over No. 7 Julio Rodríguez (+1900 straight forecast)
Fun fact: If this matchup happens, Rodríguez would be the slight favorite, as the straight forecast for Rodríguez over Robert is only +1700.
But this is where fatigue sets in.
After going all-out for the full four minutes (assuming bonus time is earned) as the lower seed against Alonso and (probably) Guerrero in each of the first two rounds, Rodríguez has to muster up the strength to do it for three more minutes in the championship. Meanwhile, Robert might not even break a sweat in eliminating Rutschman, and he'll know how many it takes to beat Arozarena/García before he steps into the box.
Could be a scenario in which Rodríguez has already hit 65 home runs while Robert is much fresher in the 30-40 range.
And we've seen that advantage work out for the well-rested slugger many times in the past. Juan Soto took care of a fatigued Rodríguez in last year's championship round. Alonso knocked out a gassed Guerrero in 2019. And who can forget 2008, when Josh Hamilton hit 28 home runs in the first round, before losing to Justin Morneau—who hit 22 in that entire derby—in the championship?
Robert gets the dub, and subsequently a front-row seat to Chicago's trade deadline fire sale.
