MLB Home Run Derby 2022: Preview and Predictions for Stacked Bracket
Major League Baseball's Home Run Derby always features a field loaded with stars.
But when the 2022 edition begins Monday at 8 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium, this group of sluggers is going to feel even more stacked than usual.
There's a two-time reigning Derby champion. A guaranteed Hall of Famer. A phenom who just turned down a $440 million contract offer. An AL Rookie of the Year front-runner. The best switch-hitter in baseball. A former hometown favorite. A star barely one year removed from suffering a torn ACL. And a red-hot slugger with 19 home runs just in the past seven weeks.
It's going to be awesome.
As a quick reminder of the format, it's a head-to-head bracket in which the better-seeded hitter will bat second in each round.
For the first two rounds, each hitter gets three minutesātwo minutes in the championshipāduring which time he is allowed one 45-second timeout while trying to hit as many home runs as possible. That initial two- or three-minute period will be followed by either a 30-second segment of bonus time or a 60-second segment, depending on whether the player hits a home run that travels at least 440 feet during the first two or three minutes. (They almost always do earn the full 60 seconds.) No timeouts during bonus time. Most home runs advances. And if at any point the second hitter pulls ahead of the first hitter, the round ends right then and there.
In the case of a tie, each hitter gets another 60 seconds (no timeouts). And if there's still a tie after 60 seconds, they'll do three-swing swing-offs until the tie is finally broken.
With that out of the way, let's talk about some of the biggest storylines in play at this year's Derby, followed by our round-by-round predictions of how it'll all play out.
Fifth Time's the Charm?
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Albert Pujols is one of the greatest hitters/sluggers in Major League Baseball history. The three-time MVP ranks fifth all-time in home runs (685) and 10th in career hits (3,333).
But the 42-year-old, 11-time All-Star is 0-for-4 when it comes to the Home Run Derby.
In his first attempt in 2003āback when you got 10 outs per round as opposed to the current timed formatāPujols hit the most total home runs (26) but lost 9-8 in the championship round to Garret Anderson. Four years later in 2007, he was eliminated in the semifinals. Same story in 2009 and 2015.
This time around, though, if he even makes it to the semifinals, it would be one of the most viral moments in Home Run Derby history.
Maybe it wouldn't be quite on the level of the show Josh Hamilton put on at Yankee Stadium in 2008 or the epic Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Joc Pederson battle in 2019. But it would be a "text your buddies to make sure they're watching" moment, for sure.
Pujols has hit just six home runs this season and has as many dingers since the start of 2020 (29) as his first-round opponent, Kyle Schwarber, has this season alone. And stamina for this type of event at his age is an obvious concern. He is, by far, the oldest player to compete in the Home Run Derby.
But with his sweet swing, The Machine could at least get into a groove and make things interesting for a four-minute round, right?
The Quest for a Three-Pete
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New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso is already in rarefied air in Home Run Derby lore. By winning the competition in 2019 and 2021, he became just the fourth multiple-time victor, joining Ken Griffey Jr., Prince Fielder and Yoenis Cespedes.
If he can get the job done again in Los Angeles, though, he would match Griffey as the only players with at least three Home Run Derby trophies on their mantle. And while it's not quite the same as all of the "first since Babe Ruth" footnotes that pop up anytime Shohei Ohtani does something incredible, being in a two-person club with Junior sure would be something.
Heading into the 2019 Derby, Alonso had 30 home runs and was slugging .634. He carried that momentum into a convincing victory, not even needing the 30 seconds of bonus time in any of the three rounds.
In 2021, he only had 17 homers before the All-Star break with a .477 slugging percentage, but he caught fire and again cruised to victory with plenty of room to spare in all three rounds. And that sparked a second-half surge in which his 20 home runs were good for second-most in the NL.
This year? Split the difference, more or less. Alonso has 24 dingers and a .517 slugging percentage. He isn't the best in the field in either category, but he's tied for fifth in the majors in the former and ranks top-20 in the latter. Even if he hadn't won two Derbies before, he'd probably be the betting favorite.
Former Home-Field Advantage?
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More often than not, the team hosting the All-Star Game has a participant in the Home Run Derby. Prior to this season, the last time it didn't happen was in 2012 in Kansas Cityāwhich Royals fans were quite unhappy about.
But while there are no current Los Angeles Dodgers in this eight-man field, at least there are two former Dodgers in Albert Pujols and Corey Seager.
To be fair, calling Pujols a former Dodger is akin to calling Ken Griffey Jr. a former member of the Chicago White Sox, as he spent less than a season there. But Pujols has more career home runs at Dodger Stadium (17) than the rest of the non-Seager field combined (13). He's at least familiar with the dimensions.
If anyone has a former home-field advantage, though, it's Seager.
Currently slugging with the Texas Rangers, Seager spent his first seven big league seasons in L.A., racking up 59 home runs in Dodger Stadium. He has more hits in this ballpark (342) than any other player in the field has plate appearances.
Does it matter, though?
A hometown player has won the Home Run Derby just three times: Ryne Sandberg at Chicago's Wrigley Field in 1990, Todd Frazier at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park in 2015 and Bryce Harper at Washington D.C.'s Nationals Park in 2018. The more common outcome is the hometown player getting immediately bounced in the first round. That fate befell David Wright in 2013, Brian Dozier in 2014, Wil Myers in 2016, Giancarlo Stanton in 2017 and Carlos Santana in 2019.
What's at Stake and Who Needs It Most?
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There are more than just bragging rights on the line during the Home Run Derby. The winner gets a great big chain with a crown that looks like it may have once belonged to the Notorious B.I.G., as well as a $1 million cash prize.
For some sluggers, that's nowhere near enough of an incentive to risk screwing up their swing.
For two guys in this field, though, it'd be one heck of a payday.
Career earnings of 2022 MLB Home Run Derby participants (does not include future seasons already under contract):
Albert Pujols: $341.7 million
Corey Seager: $62.2 million
Jose Ramirez: $44.0 million
Kyle Schwarber: $40.0 million
Juan Soto: $28.3 million
Ronald Acuna Jr.: $21.9 million
Pete Alonso: $9.8 million
Julio Rodriguez: $2.5 million
Pujols certainly isn't in it for the money. Neither is Seager on his 10-year, $325 million deal nor Soto after he reportedly rejected a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nationals over the weekend. Ramirez (seven years, $141 million), Acuna (eight years, $100 million) and Schwarber (four years, $79 million) aren't exactly hurting for cash on their current deals, either.
But while a whole lot of money is sure to be given to both Alonso and Rodriguez one day, neither one is currently rolling in the long-term dough. In fact, Rodriguez is a rookie on the league-minimum salary of $700,000, so he stands to more than double his 2022 earnings if he can catch fire Monday night.
Betting Odds and Best Value
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Per DraftKings, here are the betting odds for the 2022 Home Run Derby:
Pete Alonso (24 HR in 2022) +200 (risk $100 to win $200)
Kyle Schwarber (29 HR) +330
Juan Soto (20 HR) +600
Ronald Acuna Jr. (8 HR) +600
Corey Seager (22 HR) +900
Julio Rodriguez (16 HR) +1000
Jose Ramirez (19 HR) +1600
Albert Pujols (6 HR) +2200
The best value on the board is pretty clearly Jose Ramirez.
Despite clubbing two home runs in Saturday's victory over Detroit, Jo-Ram isn't exactly storming into the Derby with a head of steam. Those were just his second and third home runs since June 10. It also doesn't help his case that he and rookie Julio Rodriguez are the only participants who have not previously competed in this event, in which knowing how to pace oneself and conserve energy is even more important than raw power.
But as far as slugging percentage is concerned, Ramirez is No. 1 in the field with a mark of .576. Some of that is a product of his 30 doubles, but there's no denying this three-time Silver Slugger's ability to mash a baseball.
To be clear, "best value" doesn't necessarily mean "my pick to win it." We'll dive into those predictions shortly. But it's slightly outrageous that Ramirez's odds of winning the Home Run Derby are worse than the Toronto Blue Jays' odds of winning the World Series (+1500).
First-Round Predictions
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No. 1 Kyle Schwarber over No. 8 Albert Pujols
No offense to Schwarber, but I really, really hope I'm wrong here. As previously mentioned, Pujols winning one roundālet alone the whole shebangāwould be the biggest possible (non-injury) storyline to develop during the Derby.
But I just can't see it happening. Not with Schwarber having clubbed 19 home runs since Memorial Day. It's really just a question of how much time will be left on the clock when he hits the last one he needs to advance.
No. 5 Jose Ramirez over No. 4 Juan Soto
Starting out against the man who eliminated Shohei Ohtani in the first round with 31 home runs last yearāand the man who is out to prove on one of baseball's biggest stages that he is worth more than $440 million on the open marketāis a tough ask for Ramirez.
But did you know the No. 5 seed has won in the first round in each of the past five Home Run Derbies and that the No. 5 seed has made it into the championship round in four of those five events?
Earning the better seed and getting to bat second is supposed to be an inherent advantage, but for some reason, it never translates in this matchup. (Also, I suspect being asked constantly about his contract situation is going to be much more of a distraction than a motivating factor for Soto.)
No. 2 Pete Alonso over No. 7 Ronald Acuna Jr.
Could the championship be decided in the first round?
Well, obviously not. Even if the winner of this matchup clubs 50 homers, none of it carries over into the semifinals. But it does feel like the Alonso-Acuna victor will enter the semifinals as the clear favorite.
Alonso is already the betting favorite at +200, but Acuna isn't far behind him, tied for the third-best odds at +600. He only has eight home runs (in 59 games played) on the season, but Acuna put up the best fight against Alonso thus far in Derby history, with the Polar Bear edging him 20-19 in the 2019 semifinals.
Got to go with Alonso, though, as Acuna is slugging just .283 dating back to June 12.
No. 6 Julio Rodriguez over No. 3 Corey Seager
What a fun first-round matchup between divisional foes who just squared off over the weekend. Incidentally, on Friday night, J-Rod mashed his first career grand slam just two innings after Seager got the Rangers on the board with a homer off Robbie Ray.
Seager has been red hot as of late, cranking out seven home runs since Independence Day. And that former home-field factor might help him at least get out of the first round.
But whether it's the aforementioned money at stake or something else, rookies have fared quite well in the Derby as of late. There were none last year, but both Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put on one heck of a show in 2019, two years after Aaron Judge won the 2017 Derby as a rookie. It's unlikely that Rodriguez will actually win it at +1000, but he'll make the semifinals.
Semifinals and Championship Predictions
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Semifinal A: No. 5 Jose Ramirez over No. 1 Kyle Schwarber
This is Year 7 of the bracketed Derby format, and the No. 1 seed has yet to reach the championship. In fact, the No. 1 seed hasn't even advanced out of the first round since 2016.
After surviving what should be an outstanding first-round matchup against Soto, Ramirez figures to enter the semifinals with considerably more momentum than Schwarber, who might not even break a sweat in his opening skirmish with Pujols.
Ramirez sets the table with an impressive 21-homer round, and by the time Schwarber gets into his groove, it'll be too little, too late.
Semifinal B: No. 2 Pete Alonso over No. 6 Julio Rodriguez
In each of the past two Derbies, there has been one matchup that required extra time: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. Joc Pederson in 2019 and Juan Soto vs. Shohei Ohtani in 2021. And if you could guarantee there will be one and only one tiebreaker in this year's Derby, Alonso vs. Rodriguez would be my pick.
As previously noted, these are the two guys in this field who have yet to reach eight figures in career earnings. They're in this thing for more than just bragging rights.
And for Rodriguez, this is his chance to really make a name for himself. The everyday baseball fans know about the Mariners' star outfielder, of course, but there will be substantially more eyes on him during the Derby than there have been at any point thus far in the regular season. The instant fame that would come with knocking out Alonso will not be lost on Rodriguez.
But in the end, the Polar Bear will prevail.
Championship: No. 2 Pete Alonso over No. 5 Jose Ramirez
For whatever reason, No. 2 vs. No. 5 is the most common championship matchup. It happened in 2016, 2017 and 2018. And if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Alonso is the two-time reigning champion and the favorite for a reason. He was built for Derbies, able to get into a rhythm and reel off 10 home runs in barely a minute's time, if necessary. And unless he runs into Schwarber in the championship, he'll have the advantage of hitting second in each round. That will help ensure he doesn't "waste" any unnecessary swings, keeping him somewhat fresh for the final.
Ramirez, on the other hand, is liable to be a bit worn out after swinging all the way to the buzzer against both Soto and Schwarber. That's plenty good reason to pick Alonso to win his third Derby.
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