Projecting CeeDee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase Contracts After Justin Jefferson's $140M Deal
In what has felt like the offseason of the wide receiver contract, the NFL saw its biggest domino drop Monday when Justin Jefferson finally got his long-awaited payday.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Jefferson's extension is a four-year, $140 million deal that includes $110 million guaranteed and makes the Minnesota Vikings star the highest-paid wideout in history. Jefferson announced the deal himself on Instagram.
Jefferson's record-setting contract came after receivers Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nico Collins all obtained lucrative extensions this offseason. Calvin Ridley signed a four-year, $92 million deal in free agency, while Michael Pittman Jr. got a three-year, $70 million deal after first receiving the franchise tag.
Jefferson's contract tops them all, but it's fair to wonder how long he'll remain the league's highest-paid pass-catcher. Other top receivers like Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb are still in line for extensions and could potentially top Jefferson's deal.
Here, we'll examine how Jefferson's contract impacts the market and how the next wave of receiver contracts might look. Players are listed in alphabetical order.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
1 of 8
Brandon Aiyuk is a strong candidate to get an extension before Week 1, although it might not necessarily come from the San Francisco 49ers.
Aiyuk is coming off a career year with 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He is also entering the final year of his rookie contract and was the subject of predraft trade rumors.
The Athletic's Dianna Russini reported that San Francisco spoke with teams about trading either Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel "in an effort to move up in the first round." The Niners didn't wind up trading either one, but they did use their first-round pick on receiver Ricky Pearsall.
San Francisco also recently extended Jauan Jennings, so there isn't exactly a shortage of receiver depth in the Bay Area.
However, the 49ers won't want to let Aiyuk walk next offseason, so an extension or trade could come at some point before the 2024 trade deadline. The unknown is how much it will cost to sign Aiyuk long-term.
Jefferson's $35 million annual value probably isn't realistic for Aiyuk, who has only one stellar season on his resume. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported last month (h/t Bleacher Report's Jack Murray) that Aiyuk was looking to top St. Brown's deal, which might now be palatable.
If another contract soon tops Jefferson's, $30 million per year will start to feel reasonable for a high-end No. 1-caliber receiver. Expect Aiyuk's next contract to fall in line with those of Brown and St. Brown but still well below Jefferson's.
Contract projection: Four years, $120.1 million with $80 million guaranteed
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
2 of 8
Ja'Marr Chase is the likeliest candidate to top Jefferson's contract this offseason. He's a pivotal piece of the Cincinnati Bengals offense, has a rapport with Joe Burrow that dates back to their LSU days and is unquestionably one of the top receivers in the NFL.
In three seasons, Chase has amassed 3,717 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns while making three consecutive Pro Bowl appearances. The 24-year-old became extension-eligible this offseason, and he's reportedly been waiting for Jefferson to sign his deal before putting pen to paper.
"Even prior to the start of his third NFL season—before he was eligible for an extension—Chase made it clear he was looking to receive top-of-market money, noting he needed to see what Jefferson got before going to the negotiating table," ESPN's Ben Baby recently wrote.
Now that Jefferson's deal is done, Chase has a benchmark to target. He can justify asking for $35 million annually—if not slightly more—in new money. Because an extension will likely be tacked onto the remainder of Chase's rookie deal, the Bengals wouldn't actually be paying out that value over the course of his contract.
A four-year extension worth $140 million would essentially be a six-year contract with cap hits of $9.8 million and $21.8 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The actual value would be closer to $29 million annually than $35 million.
That would make it easy for Cincinnati to justify doing a deal immediately, before the receiver market inflates any further.
Contract projection: Four years, $140.5 million with $110 million guaranteed
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
3 of 8
Cincinnati's No. 2 receiver, Tee Higgins, is also due for an extension. He requested a trade after the Bengals franchise-tagged him, but he still expects to play for Cincinnati in 2024.
However, Higgins' next deal isn't guaranteed to come this offseason. The Bengals are going to keep Chase long-term, and they just used a third-round draft pick on wideout Jermaine Burton.
Multiple sources told ESPN's Ben Baby that "Higgins and the Bengals haven't had negotiations for a new contract in more than a year."
Waiting for 2025 free agency might actually benefit Higgins. He's set to earn $21.8 million on the franchise tag this year and could work the evolving receiver market to maximize his value. If Ridley can get $23 million annually in free agency. Higgins could get far more.
While Higgins hasn't been a No. 1 receiver in Cincinnati, he's been one of the league's best second options. He's had two 1,000-yard campaigns in four years and has averaged 63.5 yards per game.
Expect an open-market deal for Higgins to resemble the three-year, $84.8 million contract that Jaylen Waddle just received from the Miami Dolphins in terms of annual value.
Contract projection: Four years, $113.3 million with $65 million guaranteed
.jpg?w=256 "Chiefs Giants Football")
.jpg?w=256 "Browns Monken Football")
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
4 of 8
Jaylen Waddle's extension with the Miami Dolphins had the unintended consequence of making Tyreek Hill appear underpaid.
While Hill just turned 30 in March, he remains one of the most dangerous offensive players at any position. He led the NFL with 1,799 receiving yards last season and has reportedly been trying to get a raise ever since.
"Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the effort to address Hill's contract began after the 2023 season ended," Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio wrote.
Technically, Hill's $30 million annual value is still higher than Waddle's $28.3 million value. However, as Florio recently pointed out, Miami is highly unlikely to pay out the final year of Hill's contract. He'll have a $56.3 million cap hit in 2026, whereas the Dolphins would be left with a dead cap hit of only $11.3 million if they parted ways with him.
For practical purposes, Hill is under contract for two more years at cap hits of $31.3 million and $34.2 million. Now that Jefferson's deal eclipsed those numbers, Hill will likely want an immediate adjustment.
The big unknown here is the length of a Hill extension. The potent pass-catcher is still going strong, but he also said last year that he planned to retire after the 2025 season.
A short-term extension with a massive restructure might be Hill's end goal here. If he does receive a new contract this offseason, expect it to outright replace the final three years of his current contract, raising the annual value and pushing bonus money into future years, when the salary cap should be substantially higher.
Contract projection: New four-year, $140 million deal that runs through 2027 and includes $85 million guaranteed
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
5 of 8
Along with Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb can make a realistic argument for topping Jefferson's deal. The Dallas Cowboys star has made three straight Pro Bowl appearances and is coming off a first-team All-Pro campaign.
While Jefferson has averaged 98.3 receiving yards per game in his career, Lamb has averaged 91.4 yards per game over the past two seasons. That falls in line with Lamb's time as Dallas' clear-cut No. 1 receiver following the 2022 trade of Amari Cooper.
While Lamb's recent numbers are just a tick lower than Jefferson's career averages, the 25-year-old is still an elite receiver. The next-man-up nature of contract negotiations should allow Lamb to top Jefferson's contract, which appears to be the goal.
According to NFL reporter Josina Anderson, talks between Lamb and the Cowboys are "expected to 'speed up'—beyond its previous pace—since 'there's at least a number'" in the wake of Jefferson's deal.
The Cowboys presumably want to get a deal done before Chase signs his contract in Cincinnati and raises the top of the market even further. There's a real chance that Lamb gets his new deal before quarterback Dak Prescott, who is also an impending 2025 free agent.
Dallas could use the franchise tag on Lamb next offseason, but by 2026, top receiver contracts could be well into the $40 million-per-year range.
Contract projection: Four years, $140.1 million with $110 million guaranteed
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
6 of 8
Pittsburgh Steelers receiver George Pickens is an outlier on this list because he won't be extension-eligible until next offseason. However, the 23-year-old is worth mentioning since he could potentially jump-start the next wave of top receiver contracts.
Pickens tallied 1,140 yards and five touchdowns on only 63 receptions last season. He led the league with an 18.1 yards-per-catch average despite playing in one of the NFL's most anemic passing offenses.
The Steelers ranked 21st in net yards per pass attempt, 25th in passing yards and 30th in passing touchdowns. With Russell Wilson coming in to replace former quarterback Kenny Pickett—and Justin Fields coming in as insurance—Pickens could see a massive jump in production this season.
Wilson didn't produce eye-popping numbers with the Denver Broncos in 2023, but he averaged just under 205 passing yards per game and threw twice as many touchdowns (26) than all Pittsburgh quarterbacks combined. The Steelers averaged only 186 passing yards per game last season.
If new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith further raises the level of Pittsburgh's offense, Pickens could be in line for his first Pro Bowl campaign. If Wilson can get him the ball consistently, Pickens could also challenge for the league lead in receiving yards. His 63 receptions in 2023 came on only 106 targets.
While Pickens won't have the prolific resume needed to surpass Jefferson's deal, he could further raise the bar for second-tier receivers like Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. A lot will hinge on how the Steelers' new additions fare, but if all goes well, Pickens could be poised to earn a top-10 receiver contract in 2025.
Contract projection: Three years, $78 million with $53 million guaranteed
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
7 of 8
If the 49ers do extend Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel could become a trade candidate. The do-it-all receiver and runner is a valuable part of San Francisco's offense, but the 49ers aren't likely to pay top-of-the-market money to more than one wideout.
Samuel's current contract—which runs through 2025 and is worth $23.9 million annually—falls just outside of the top 10. Samuel may not play out that contract, though, as it only $15.1 million in dead money remaining after this season.
According to The Athletic's Tim Kawakami, the 49ers planned for 2024 to essentially be a contract year for the 28-year-old.
"It's not like they were keeping it secret from Deebo when the deal was done," Kawakami wrote on May 8. It was all pretty much in the open. We're seeing the results now."
The Niners could save $22 million in 2024 cap space by trading Samuel this offseason, which they could use to sign Aiyuk to an extension. Samuel will presumably want more long-term security from his next team, so an extension would likely follow any trade.
Samuel, a 2021 first-team All-Pro, is a fantastic playmaker. However, he isn't quite in the upper echelon with players like Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and A.J. Brown. Despite being used in multiple ways, he has topped 1,000 scrimmage yards in only two seasons. He'll also turn 29 in January.
Expect a Samuel extension to include only a slight pay bump but with more years and guaranteed money to help provide long-term stability.
Contract projection: Three years, $73 million with $50 million guaranteed
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
8 of 8
Denver Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton, whose lone 1,000-yard campaign came back in 2019, is a tier or two below every other player featured here. However, he has to be mentioned because he has held out of offseason workouts amidst dissatisfaction with his current contract.
The good news for Denver, which is working to develop rookie quarterback Bo Nix, is that Sutton isn't seeking No. 1 receiver money. According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler (h/t Noah Strackbein of All Steelers), Sutton is only seeking a marginal raise.
"The Denver Broncos have been speaking with Sutton and his representatives," Fowler said. "No real progress yet, so even though they were hoping he showed up for OTAs, he very well might not be there. He is due about $13.6 million in cash this year. He'd like to see that get up to maybe in that $15, $16 million range. We'll see if they can find a sweet spot."
Getting Sutton on the field and working with Nix would be beneficial to the Broncos, so an extension could be on the not-too-distant horizon. Denver added Josh Reynolds and rookie wideout Troy Franklin this offseason, but Sutton should still be a significant piece of the offensive puzzle.
An extension for Sutton, who is signed through next season, shouldn't break the bank and would make a good amount of sense.
Contract projection: Two years, $35 million with $25 million guaranteed
Cap and contract information via Spotrac.
.jpg?w=480 "Chiefs Giants Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Browns Monken Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Jahmyr Gibbs' Back Tattoo 🎨")