Buying or Selling Kyle Tucker, Yankees Starting Rotation and MLB's Hottest May's
April showers bring May flowers, and a lot of Major League Baseball stars sure have bloomed in this fifth month of the 2024 calendar.
Some of the hottest players of the past few weeks are your usual suspects. Aaron Judge is mashing. Shohei Ohtani is great. So is Kyle Tucker. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has caught fire—though the Blue Jays have not.
There also have been several surprise infernos.
Who had Garrett Crochet tabbed as a possible AL Pitcher of the Month?
Is it time to start taking the Kansas City Royals seriously?
And do the Yankees even miss Gerrit Cole with the way their rotation has been humming along?
Every player, team and position group on this list has been red hot in May.
Let's do some buying and selling of whether that will continue into June.
Aaron Judge
1 of 10
May Stats: .383/.505/.938, 11 HR, 25 R, 21 RBI
Spoiler alert: Aaron Judge is good.
The year didn't start out that way, though. He ended April with a .207 batting average and a .754 OPS that left us to wonder if he was OK and whether the Yankees could get by with just Juan Soto carrying the offense.
Suffice it to say, things changed for the better in what has historically been his favorite month for mashing baseballs.
For his career, Judge has an OPS of .917 or better in each month. May has always been his favorite, though, now boasting an OPS of 1.130 in those 151 career games.
The 32-year-old hit .311 with 12 home runs in May 2022 and .342 with 12 home runs last May, so .383 with 11 home runs is basically par for the course at this point.
In 2022, he only got better from there, posting a 1.286 OPS after the All-Star Break en route to the AL HR record. And last year, it was only because of the toe injury that sidelined him for nearly two months that he didn't run away with what would have been the third AL home run crown of his career.
Barring another injury, we expect more of the same. He presumably won't have a near 1.000 slugging percentage from June-September, but a 1.000 OPS the rest of the way en route to another 50-plus homer season is more than doable.
Judge is back, and baseball is more fun for it.
Verdict: Buying
Kansas City Royals
2 of 10
May Record: 16-7, +34 run differential
When the Royals—one year removed from the worst season in franchise history—ended April at 18-13 and tied for the best run differential in the majors, it was a fun little story.
It was a better version of both Oakland and Washington unexpectedly treading water just below .500, but not quite as impressive as Pittsburgh's 20-8 start to last season.
Now, Memorial Day is done, and there sits Kansas City 14 games above .500, forcing us to wonder whether this is actually going to be one of the greatest rags-to-riches stories in MLB history.
What makes this feel sustainable is that with the exception of Salvador Perez hitting like he used to three to four years ago, the Royals aren't overachieving at the plate. They are opportunistically hitting much better with men on base (.305/.371/.477) than they are with the bases empty (.217/.276/.367), but, if anything, they are waiting on the likes of Hunter Renfroe, MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino to start pulling their weight. This might actually be a playoff-caliber offense with Bobby Witt Jr. leading the way.
What feels much less sustainable is Seth Lugo vying for a Cy Young while Brady Singer and Alec Marsh are both sitting on sub-2.70 ERAs after each finishing last season north of 5.50. Then again, Lugo has had a 3.60 or lower ERA in five of the last six seasons, and both Singer and Marsh are young enough that it's plausible they've simply leveled up after a rough go last season.
Per MLB.com, the greatest single-season improvement in the divisional era was the Arizona Diamondbacks gaining 35 wins from 65 in 1998 to 100 in 1999. To match that feat after going 56-106 last season, the Royals need to play just six games above .500 the rest of the way, to finish at 91-71.
Keeping pace with the Yankees/Orioles for the AL's No. 1 seed in the playoffs probably isn't happening, so we're selling the Royals maintaining the .700-ish winning percentage they've had in May.
But if you're asking if we're buying or selling the Royals as a 91-win playoff team?
Verdict: Buying
Elly De La Cruz's Stolen Bases
3 of 10
May Stats: .209/.292/.302, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 13 SB
At the plate, Elly De La Cruz's May has been a major step backward from an incredible March/April. A .962 OPS with eight home runs gave way to a .594 OPS, one homer mess.
He's still running, though. A lot.
In fact, EDLC is averaging almost as many stolen bases per game played in May (0.57) as he did in March/April (0.60), even with an on-base percentage that has dropped by nearly 100 points.
While I'm not sure exactly how often he is attempting to steal when there is a base open in front of him, let's just say it's pretty often. He stole two bases in three consecutive games earlier this month, and he had four stolen bases in a single game against the Dodgers on May 16.
Needless to say, the 22-year-old is doing some serious work with his permanent green light, and it's beyond time to start giving real consideration to the historic pace he is on.
In MLB history, there have been 20 instances of a player stealing at least 100 bases in a single season, 12 of which occurred in 1895 or earlier. Take those archaic numbers out of the dataset and you're left with Maury Wills in 1962, Lou Brock in 1974, Rickey Henderson three times (1980, 1982 and 1983) and Vince Coleman three times (1985, 1986 and 1987.) And at roughly 0.6 stolen bases per game, De La Cruz has a realistic shot at joining that exclusive club if he continues to play every day.
Considering this is the phenom who stole second, third and home in a single plate appearance last season, it's hard not to buy De La Cruz reaching triple digits, provided he stays healthy.
Verdict: Buying
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Philadelphia Phillies
4 of 10
May Record: 18-5, +67 run differential
The Phillies already had nearly the best record in baseball at the end of April, but they found a brand new gear of excellence in May, averaging two runs scored for each run allowed in their first 22 games of the month.
At 36-14, they had gotten out to the best 50-game start in a season since the 2001 Seattle Mariners went 38-12 en route to their historic 116 wins.
A big part of that sustained success has been the incredible work of Edmundo Sosa filling in for Trea Turner at shortstop. While the $300 million man continues to nurse a hamstring injury, his $1.7 million backup has been on fire, posting a 1.087 OPS since replacing Turner on May 3.
Across the board, the pitching has been superb. Ranger Suárez got roughed up a bit Sunday afternoon at Coors Field, but only after winning nine consecutive starts in which he allowed a combined total of seven earned runs. He's still a strong candidate for NL Cy Young, albeit with both Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler still very much in that conversation. And if you take out José Alvarado giving up five earned runs on Opening Day, the Phillies have five relievers with an ERA of 1.80 or better.
So, is this officially the team to beat?
They have the best record in baseball, but has this incredible May pushed them ahead of both the Braves and the Dodgers as the best team in baseball?
Considering they've only played one series in this entire season against a team that currently has a winning record—losing two of three at home against Atlanta to open the season—at least a bit of skepticism seems fair.
This is clearly a good team, and one that is already all but guaranteed to make the postseason. But let's wait until those back-to-back series against Atlanta and Los Angeles in early July before we get too carried away here.
Verdict: Selling
Chris Sale
5 of 10
May Stats: 5-0, 32.0 IP, 23 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 45 K, 0.56 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 12.7 K/9
From 2012-18, Chris Sale was one of the best in the business. He never won a Cy Young, but he placed top-six in the AL vote in all seven of those years. He was right up there with Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer as MLB's premier pitcher.
After a half-decade of injury-plagued seasons, Sale is back on top of the mountain, making one heck of a push for the Cy Young trophy that never came in the American League.
Sale's slider has always been elite. Even in the rough years, he never allowed a .200 batting average against it, and that's no different this year.
The big change has been the effectiveness of his change, which is decimating right-handed hitters.
Opponents hit .309 against Sale's changeup last season and .432 in 2021, but they are 4-for-33 (.121) this season after going just 1-for-20 in May.
The 35-year-old used to get a decent number of strikeouts via the changeup back in 2013-15, but it is less of a wipe-out pitch and much more of a professional nuisance these days; a great tool for inducing weak contact.
Throw in the fact that the average velocity on his four-seamer is up nearly one mph from where it had been in 2019, 2021 and 2023, and he has been mowing down the competition, allowing either zero or one run in each of his last six starts.
Do we expect him to maintain the 0.56 ERA and 22.5 K/BB ratio that he posted in May? Heck no. But this also doesn't look fluky. As long as he stays healthy, he should remain dominant. (At any rate, with both Spencer Strider and now Ronald Acuña Jr. done for the season, Atlanta needs him to be great.)
Verdict: Buying
Kyle Tucker
6 of 10
May Stats: .253/.406/.722, 11 HR, 18 R, 19 RBI, 4 SB
For too long, Kyle Tucker was the overlooked star of the Houston Astros machine.
The 27-year-old led the team in bWAR last season, this after ranking second (to George Springer) in 2020, second (to Carlos Correa) in 2021 and third (behind only Yordan Alvarez and Justin Verlander) in 2022.
In other words, Tucker is well on his way to a fifth consecutive season of providing more value than either Jose Altuve or Alex Bregman. Yet, it wasn't until he stormed out to the MLB lead in home runs earlier this month that most fans outside of Houston began to appreciate how great he has been for awhile now.
Ready for the fun part?
Tucker has been terribly unlucky on batted balls this month.
While the likes of Aaron Judge and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entered play Monday with BABIPs north of .400 in May, Tucker was sitting at .170, good for near dead-last in the majors. He has made up for it, though, by drawing walks at an unusually high rate and batting quite a few balls out of play—a.k.a. homering 11 times.
While it's highly unlikely he will continue to homer at a rate of once for every 9.2 trips to the plate, there's no good reason to assume he can't keep up the rest of what he's been doing. Maybe some of those home runs turn into doubles or long outs, but with the trade-off of that BABIP climbing back up to a normal range.
Tucker is the real deal and a legitimate threat to win AL MVP.
Verdict: Buying
Garrett Crochet
7 of 10
May Stats: 4-1, 29.0 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 38 K, 0.93 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 11.8 K/9
Garrett Crochet missed all of 2022 and a good chunk of 2023 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. After being drafted by the White Sox in the first round in 2020, all 84 of his appearances between the minors and majors from 2020-23 came in a relief role, maxing out at 12 batters faced in a single outing.
But now there's a decent chance he'll be named AL Pitcher of the Month after making five strong starts and somehow even winning four games for the worst team in baseball.
Make it make sense, please.
At least when Cole Ragans broke out in a big way last season in Kansas City, he had a decent amount of experience as a starting pitcher, he wasn't recently removed from TJ surgery while getting his arm stretched out and he was, to some extent, benefitting from a change of scenery.
Crochet all of a sudden becoming an ace after not starting a game in more than four years is simply wild.
After opening the season with back-to-back quality starts against Detroit and Atlanta, the 24-year-old went through a rough patch in April. But outside of a couple of taters by Willson Contreras and Adley Rutschman, he has been almost untouchable in May, whiffing 11 Guardians on May 10 and 11 Orioles on Sunday.
Is it sustainable, though?
The year-to-date xFIP (2.52) and xERA (2.17) marks are certainly big believers in Crochet. Among qualified pitchers, that is the lowest xERA and the fourth-lowest xFIP. That comes with the territory of averaging better than six strikeouts per walk and leading the majors in K/9.
If the whiffs keep coming, the White Sox might actually have something special on their hands.
Verdict: Buying Crochet as a legitimate building block for woebegone Chicago, but selling him as a candidate for Cy Young votes.
New York Yankees Starting Rotation
8 of 10
May Stats: 24 starts, 142.2 IP, 16-5, 1.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9.0 K/9
While reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole continues to rehab from the elbow inflammation that shut him down after just one appearance in spring training, the New York Yankees are inexplicably in no rush to get him back, boasting the most potent starting rotation in baseball.
For three of their five starters, thriving in May hasn't been a huge surprise. Both Marcus Stroman (30.1 IP, 1.78 ERA, 3 QS) and Carlos Rodón (28.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 4 QS) rank among the 20 highest-salaried pitchers in the majors for a reason. Nestor Cortes (23.2 IP, 2.28 ERA, 2 QS) has yet to get his big payday, but he has recovered from a rough, injury-filled 2023 to regain his dominant 2021-22 form.
However, are Clarke Schmidt (29.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 2 QS) and Luis Gil (30.2 IP, 0.59 ERA, 5 QS) serious right now?
Schmidt at least was a first-round draft pick and a consensus top-100 prospect at one point, but he had a 4.64 ERA in his first full season in the majors last year.
Meanwhile, Gil came out of nowhere after missing the majority of the past two years following Tommy John surgery. He always had solid strikeout stuff, but he had a 5.76 ERA in 19 appearances in Triple-A and almost certainly wasn't going to crack the Opening Day roster if Cole wasn't hurt.
Now, let's talk about the xFIP.
These five starters have a collective ERA of 1.96 in May, which is best in the majors by far. What they also have is a collective xFIP of 3.83, which puts them right in the middle of the pack and suggests some painful regression to the mean should be coming soon.
It's all five pitchers, too, just to be clear. The only one who doesn't have an xFIP at least a full run greater than his ERA is Rodón (3.49 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 4.93 FIP). There should be some slippage across the board.
Is the rotation better than expected and good enough to anchor an AL East champion?
Sure, especially once Cole is back in the mix.
But one great month doesn't make this the second coming of the mid-1990s Atlanta Braves.
Verdict: Selling
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
9 of 10
May Stats: .407/.484/.543, 2 HR, 13 R, 14 RBI
In April, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the face of Toronto's failures; the three-time All-Star whose sub-.700 OPS was dragging the Blue Jays to the AL East basement while simultaneously decreasing his trade value if they ended up selling ahead of the deadline.
And now?
Well, the Blue Jays are even worse, carrying an 8-13 May record into Memorial Day. A July 30 fire sale is looking more and more imminent by the day.
Can't blame Guerrero anymore, though, as he has gone 33-for-81 at the dish, reaching base safely at least three times in eight of those 21 games.
The raw slugging still isn't what it used to be. He's only on pace to finish the season with 16 home runs, which is one-third of his MLB-leading 48 from three years ago. But can you really complain about a guy only hitting two home runs in a month where he's batting north of .400?
What has been impressive is he's hitting every kind of pitch.
Per Baseball Savant, Guerrero went 0-for-16 with eight strikeouts in April on at-bats that ended on an offspeed pitch, but he's 6-for-14 with just one K in May—and both of his homers this month were off changeups.
In Sunday's four-hit game against the Tigers, those hits came against a four-seamer (two), a slider (one) and a sinker (one).
Baseball Savant also shows that Guerrero's 2024 chase rate (22.5 percent) and first pitch swing percentage (26.6) are considerably lower than in any previous season, so he's showing more patience and seeing the ball better than he ever has.
The big question is whether the power will resurface before the batting average returns to a more normal level.
Verdict: Selling Guerrero as a .400 hitter, but buying that he has figured things out after a rough start.
Shohei Ohtani
10 of 10
May Stats: .338/.411/.625, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 8 SB
Most of the Dodgers' key batters have been (by their standards) just OK in May.
Both Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have an OPS slightly below .800, combining for a modest five home runs. Max Muncy was batting .175 in May before landing on the IL. Will Smith is also below the Mendoza Line at .194. And Andy Pages has cooled off after a hot start to his career.
It's why the Dodgers as a whole have been (again, by their standards) just OK in May, going 14-9 while allowing the Phillies to surge to a nice lead in the race for the NL's No. 1 seed.
The exception has been Shohei Ohtani, who just continues to dominate.
Frankly, though, his numbers don't even stand out as unusual, aside from a couple more stolen bases than his typical pace.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts recently revealed that Ohtani has been playing through a hamstring contusion suffered when he was hit in the leg by a pickoff throw on May 16. It hasn't done much to slow him down, though, as he still managed three extra-base hits and three stolen bases in 10 games since the injury.
It wasn't until he appeared to be running at less than full speed on a triple Saturday night that anyone outside of the clubhouse even suspected something might be amiss.
Ohtani entered May as one of the top candidates for NL MVP. That hasn't changed. It won't change in June, either.
Verdict: Buying
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