NFL Draft 2024: Latest Expert Mocks, Projections for Difficult 1st-Round Decisions

The 2024 NFL draft is now only weeks away, and yet, there's still plenty we don't know. The general assumption is that the Chicago Bears will kick things off by taking USC quarterback Caleb Williams and that more quarterbacks will soon follow.

However, much of the first round remains a mystery after the top selection, and the possibility of trades makes things even more unclear.

We can make some educated guesses about how things will unfold, however, and mock drafts can at least help clarify expectations.

Here, we'll dig through some of the latest mock drafts from around the web and dissect what they can tell us about some of the draft's most difficult early decisions.

Which Quarterback Goes at No. 2?

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North Carolina QB prospect Drake Maye

Barring a surprising trade, the Washington Commanders are likely to take a quarterback at No. 2. What's unknown is which quarterback Washington will select.

Assuming Williams is off the board, the Commanders will be choosing between LSU's Jayden Daniels, North Carolina's Drake Maye and Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. Options are split on who the choice will ultimately be.

The Bleacher Report Scouting Department's latest mock paired Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury with Daniels.

"Daniels brings two game-changing traits: athleticism and deep ball accuracy," B/R's Derrik Klassen said. "Those two traits alone will give any Daniels offense an instant boost in explosive ability."

Charles McDonald and Nate Tice of Yahoo Sports also mocked Daniels to Washington at No. 2.

NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah, however, had Maye going to Washington in his third mock draft of 2024. It's worth noting that Maye is the top-ranked quarterback on the Bleacher Report draft board, even ahead of Williams. Maye would certainly be a logical choice if Washington views the class similarly.

McCarthy is getting some buzz too, though, and landed with Washington in NFL Media's Eric Edholm's March 29 mock.

In other words, Washington is facing a very tough decision, and it might not be simply picking between two players. Its choice could heavily influence the next several selections, especially if teams are eager to trade up for a signal-caller.

The projection here is that Washington prefers Daniels instant playmaking ability to Maye's incredible upside.

Where Does Brock Bowers Land?

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Georgia TE prospect Brock Bowers

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers is the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's second-ranked overall prospect, behind only Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. However, choosing when to flip the switch on Bowers could be a tough choice for teams in need of offensive help.

Bowers is a legitimate playmaker with elite upside, but he's also on the smaller side for his position at 6'3" and 243 pounds. In a draft loaded with receiver prospects like Harrison, LSU's Malik Nabers and Washington's Rome Odunze, Bowers could slide.

Projections seem to have Bowers landing at the end or just outside of the top 10. The B/R Scouting Department paired him with the New York Jets at No. 10, as did Yahoo Sports' McDonald and Tice. Jeremiah, however, has Bowers going a little later, to the Denver Broncos at No. 12.

CBS Sports' Josh Edwards also has Bowers going at No. 12, though he mocked a trade up by the Indianapolis Colts.

"Wide receiver has often been linked to Indianapolis, but there are other ways to support a young quarterback," Edwards wrote. "...Shane Steichen comes from a situation in Philadelphia where he had Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz."

ESPN's Matt Miller—who paired Bowers with the Jets—called Bowers "a top-five player in the class in terms of NFL readiness and expected impact."

Yet, Bowers probably won't go close to the top five because of the quarterback and receiver classes. That's the assumption, anyway, though a team like the New York Giants or Tennessee Titans could certainly be a wild card in its quest for an offensive playmaker.

It'll be interesting to see where he lands and if a team is indeed willing to trade up for one of the draft's best classes. The projection here is that Bowers doesn't fall past the Jets at No. 10 and could go even higher.

Is Michael Penix Jr. Worth a First-Round Pick?

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Washington QB prospect Michael Penix Jr.

While Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy all appear to be first-round locks, there's less certainty with Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Penix has plenty of first-round trades, including athleticism and elite arm talent. However, he also has a significant injury history that could cause teams to shy away in Round 1. In Miller's seven-round mock, for example, Penix lasted until pick No. 47, where he landed with the New York Giants.

The Athletic's Bruce Feldman, however, has Penix going much higher—to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 13. Feldman cites Penix's ability to overcome injuries as a reason why the Raiders might trust taking the QB highly:

"He had four season-ending injuries at IU, but his medical evaluations did get a thumbs up, according to sources. Penix has been very candid about battling through adversity stemming from those injuries and has responded remarkably well after that, which bodes well when he's likely to face more adversity in his NFL career."

The B/R Scouting Department also paired Penix with Las Vegas, though it had the Raiders trading back into the first round to snag the signal-caller at No. 21.

ESPN's Field Yates mocked Penix to the Raiders at No. 36, while NFL Media's Lance Zierlein also had him falling out of the first round.

With Penix projections landing anywhere from the middle of the first round to the middle of the second, the talented passer truly represents one of the draft's biggest wild cards. Deciding where to take him will be a tough call for QB-needy teams.

The projection here is that Penix doesn't make it out of Round 1.