Ranking MLB's True Franchise Players Entering 2024 Season
It takes a lot of players to fill up a major league roster. Exactly 26, in fact, and every one of them has a role to play.
Yet every roster needs that one guy. You know, the guy. The guy around which everything revolves.
What I'm trying to say here is that we're about to rank all 30 franchise players in Major League Baseball for the 2024 season. These are the ones who have either fully matured as stars or who are clearly on that track after recently starting their careers. Either way, they're all front and center in their given franchises.
Only one player per franchise was permitted, which naturally made for some tough omissions. Some teams indeed have multiple front-and-center types, including (but hardly limited to) the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
Otherwise, the key thing to know is that only the here and now mattered. It was tempting to get into nitty-gritty stuff like aging curves and on-field value versus contractual value, but those conversations can frankly get a little dry and are inherently biased against veteran players. It's more fun to argue about which players you'd want to start a team with right now.
Let's count 'em down.
Note: All 2024 ZiPS wins above replacement projections are courtesy of FanGraphs.
30. SS CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals
1 of 30
Age: 23
2023 Stats: 151 G, 614 PA, 18 HR, 47 SB, .245 AVG, .300 OBP, .412 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 2.4
CJ Abrams' first taste of the major leagues in 2022 did not go well at all. He took 302 plate appearances over 90 games, yet was almost exactly a replacement-level guy in the end.
It suffices to say that last year went much better for Abrams, and particularly in the second half. Both his walk and strikeout rates shifted for the better, helping to result in him collecting 11 of his home runs and 33 of his stolen bases after the break.
Ideally, Abrams' next step will involve hitting the ball with more oomph after posting exit velocities in the 85-90 mph range in each of his first two seasons. And after making 22 errors and racking up minus-eight Outs Above Average in 2023, his defense needs improvement.
Between these two things, the power improvement might be the better bet for 2024. Even if he did do so with modest exit velocity, the 18 homers Abrams hit in 2023 were six more than he hit in 534 plate appearances in the minors.
29. 2B Zack Gelof, Oakland Athletics
2 of 30
Age: 24
2023 Stats: 69 G, 300 PA, 14 HR, 14 SB, .267 AVG, .337 OBP, .504 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 2.4
Sorry, Gunnar Henderson, but Zack Gelof was the best rookie hitter in the American League last year.
I'm sort of half-joking, except I'm also being fully serious. Though Gelof didn't come nearly close enough to qualifying for the lead, his 137 OPS+ was the top mark for AL rookie hitters who took at least 300 plate appearances.
Making more consistent contact will need to be a priority for Gelof after he whiffed on 33.7 percent of his swings as a rookie. The feel for good contact, however, is there. He hit 38.6 percent of his batted balls in the sweet spot, with power that played to all fields.
Even if Gelof doesn't quite have superstar potential in 2024, it would be notable enough if he kept the power coming while holding it down at second base every day. Power and second base aren't synonymous these days, you know.
28. LF Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies
3 of 30
Age: 25
2023 Stats: 106 G, 424 PA, 20 HR, 20 SB, .297 AVG, .389 OBP, .542 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 3.2
One supposes the Rockies are truly building around Kris Bryant and his $182 million contract, but the less said about how that's going, the better.
And so, we look to Nolan Jones instead. He darn well should be front and center in the Rockies' plans after what he did last year, which notably led all rookies (Gelof included) with a 138 OPS+. This is to say that, even correcting for Coors Field, he raked.
What Jones' rake wrought last season includes a barrel rate that landed in the 94th percentile. It helped that he was choosy with what he swung at, racking up a solidly above average 12.5 walk percentage.
There was no platoon split at work here, as the lefty-swinging Jones topped a .900 OPS against both righties and lefties. And while his range in the outfield isn't great, no baserunner should ever dream of testing his arm. It's a weapon, alright.
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27. 1B Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
4 of 30
Age: 24
2023 Stats: 159 G, 684 PA, 31 HR, 3 SB, .233 AVG, .313 OBP, .446 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 2.8
Life came at Spencer Torkelson fast between 2020 and 2022. One minute, he was a No. 1 pick and an Opening Day roster selection. The next, he was back in the minors.
Even as recently as the first half of last season, Torkelson was still struggling to even become a guy. A .711 OPS is passable if you're, say, a catcher or shortstop. But as a first baseman? That's on the Jake Cronenworth end of the Not Good Enough Spectrum.
But then in the second half, Torkelson cranked 19 of his 31 homers and raised his slugging percentage by 96 points over the first half. He just plain got better at making hard contact, though it was equally important that he finally adjusted to major league fastballs.
Torkelson still needs to sharpen his approach, lest he finish with a subpar average and OBP again. Yet even at a position where they're a dime a dozen, his slugging potential alone could propel him to proper stardom this year.
26. SS Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
5 of 30
Age: 22
2023 Stats: 98 G, 427 PA, 13 HR, 35 SB, .235 AVG, .300 OBP, .410 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 2.9
On sheer potential alone, Elly De La Cruz obviously belongs closer to the top of this list. Heck, there are Home Depots with fewer tools than he has in his possession.
The 6'5", 200-pounder did his darndest to break Statcast as a rookie last year, and those efforts were met with notable instances of success. A 119.2 mph home run? Check. A top speed of 31.2 feet per second? Check. A 100 mph throw from shortstop? Check.
Of course, all of this makes it that much more of a bummer to look at De La Cruz's actual stat line and see such things as a .235 average and a 33.7 K%. And the latter issue could linger, as Aaron Judge is but one large hitter who can vouch that no amount of discipline can fully erase the disadvantage of having a larger strike zone than most hitters.
And yet, the potential here is tantalizing. Oh, so tantalizing. Tantalizing enough, clearly, to rate De La Cruz even over some of the more established up-and-comers in MLB.
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25. LF Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
6 of 30
Age: 32
2023 Stats: 144 G, 652 PA, 19 HR, 28 SB, .278 AVG, .370 OBP, .447 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 1.4
Though the Brewers have determined top prospect Jackson Chourio to be ready to take over in center field, it's a tad early to say he's taken Christian Yelich's mantle as the franchise's cornerstone player.
Besides, the 2018 NL MVP showed last year that he still has gas in the tank. It was the first time since 2019 that his OPS went over .800, for which it helped that his hard-hit rate shot into the 93rd percentile.
Last year was also more than just a batting renaissance for Yelich. Those 28 stolen bases came with only three failed attempts, and he was otherwise solid defensively in racking up three Outs Above Average.
Yet even if this present version of Yelich is still good, there's no denying that he isn't what he once was. The 40-homer power is especially missed, and the 18 homers he's averaged per 162 games since 2020 underscores how little hope there is of it ever coming back.
24. CF Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
7 of 30
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 97 G, 383 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .250 AVG, .304 OBP, .457 SLG4
2024 ZiPS WAR: 2.6
Sandy Alcantara was the Marlins' franchise player going into last season, but he'll miss 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. And with all respect to Eury Pérez, his training wheels likely won't be fully off in his age-21 season.
This is to say that Jazz Chisholm Jr. was something of a default pick for Miami, though that's also no way to talk about a former MLB The Show cover model.
The potential that got Chisholm that gig is still worth going to bat for. He's already been an All-Star, after all, and even the issues he had with his toe last year didn't get in the way of him being an exit velocity (69th percentile) and sprint speed (78th percentile) standout while making a smooth transition to center field (four Outs Above Average).
But can he stay healthy? It's the same question that loomed over him last year, and it still looms. In addition to the toe, he's missed ample time with back and oblique injuries over the last two years.
23. LF Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
8 of 30
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 145 G, 640 PA, 24 HR, 12 SB, .263 AVG, .330 OBP, .460 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 2.3
Between his trade request and the franchise's previous unwillingness to do nine-figure deals, it felt like a miracle when the Pirates extended Bryan Reynolds for $106.8 million last year.
The question for the immediate future is if Reynolds will ever repeat his 2021 season. He played like a legit superstar that year, hitting .302 with a .912 OPS while racking up 5.9 rWAR. By contrast, he didn't even break 3 rWAR in 2022 or 2023.
All the same, there's nothing wrong with the Reynolds' floor. Save for MLB's gas leak year in 2020, he's been a squarely above average hitter on an annual basis. And for the last three, you might be surprised that he has more extra-base hits than even Juan Soto.
Granted, Reynolds' offensive capabilities were more appealing when he was roaming center field on a daily basis. But even as a left fielder, he's still an offensive standout.
22. LF Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
9 of 30
Age: 28
2023 Stats: 151 G, 654 PA, 23 HR, 22 SB, .254 AVG, .364 OBP, .425 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 2.8
Calling Randy Arozarena the Rays' franchise player is perhaps a reach. He was in trade rumors for much of the winter and he's only controlled through 2026.
Still, there's no denying the impact he's had on the franchise since he arrived in 2020. To be a Rookie of the Year, an All-Star and an all-time playoff legend is not a bad resume for any span of time, much less four seasons.
Arozarena already had a 20-20 baseline with his power and speed before last season, and then he improved some of the finer points of his game. Namely, patience as he jacked his walk rate up to 12.2 percent and contact as he lowered his strikeout rate to a passable 23.9 percent.
Even then, though, he remained a 3-ish rWAR player. Because when it comes to his ceiling, his frequent baserunning gaffes and generally subpar defense don't help his cause.
21. SS Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs
10 of 30
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 147 G, 638 PA, 22 HR, 9 SB, .244 AVG, .328 OBP, .416 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.0
It was tempting to go with homegrown ace Justin Steele as the Cubs' franchise player. But Dansby Swanson is on the second-largest contract in the team's history, and that he's mostly worth it is certainly a safe take.
There's no question as to Swanson's worth on the defensive side of the ball. He's won back-to-back Gold Gloves and tallied at least 20 Outs Above Average on both occasions. Only one other player has topped this mark in the last two seasons, and his MLB career may be over.
Swanson isn't as good of a hitter, but he's also no worse than an average one. He's done well enough in sustaining himself with power over the last three years, when he's averaged 25 home runs.
Even if Swanson's ceiling can't go any higher, his current floor is that of an All-Star-caliber shortstop. As things to have go, that's a nice thing to have.
20. RHP Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
11 of 30
Age: 27
2023 Stats: 33 GS, 216.0 IP, 201 H (20 HR), 194 K, 31 BB, 3.25 ERA4
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.1
It doesn't feel right that Logan Webb is the only pitcher on this list but, well, what are you going to do? We're in a weird point in time when all the best pitchers in MLB are either free agents (seriously, someone please sign Blake Snell) or overshadowed by teammates.
There should be no mistake, though, that Logan Webb is indeed among MLB's best pitchers. He's fresh off leading all hurlers with 216 innings in 2023, and it was also his third year in as many tries with an ERA+ in the 130 range.
The day Webb stops being an effective hurler is the day that he suddenly starts giving up walks and fly balls. This is far-out future stuff we're talking about, as he ranked third in walk rate and first in ground-ball rate among qualified hurlers last season.
Is it a reach to tab Webb as the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award this year? Hardly, and especially not while the reigning winner remains at large on the open market.
19. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
12 of 30
Age: 24
2023 Stats: 156 G, 682 PA, 26 HR, 5 SB, .264 AVG, .345 OBP, .444 SLG4
2024 ZiPS WAR: 3.3
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a full-time big leaguer for five seasons now, and in these seasons he's ranked 125th, 172nd, 5th, 50th and 141st among position players in rWAR.
One of those things is so clearly unlike the others, and the frustrating thing is just how much of an outlier that one thing clearly is. The general truth of Guerrero's career is that he's been at best just OK, which renders it an act of faith to believe he can achieve the outlier again.
But you know what? It's faith worth having, and it's precisely because Guerrero did everything right except post results last season. He was hypothetically one of MLB's unluckiest hitters, which especially tracks once you see he was fourth among all hitters in hard-hit balls.
This is not to be taken as a suggestion to expect a return of the 1.002 OPS and 48 homers that Guerrero racked up in 2021. But if he at least makes a run at those numbers, nobody should be surprised.
18. 3B Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
13 of 30
Age: 27
2023 Stats: 153 G, 656 PA, 33 HR, 5 SB, .271 AVG, .351 OBP, .500 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.1
If five years is enough time to get nostalgic for something, well, then consider me nostalgic for Rafael Devers' 2019 season.
That was the year he didn't meet a baseball he didn't want to pummel. He hit .311 with a .916 OPS and 32 home runs, also leading the American League with 54 doubles and all of MLB with 359 total bases. And all at the tender age of 22.
Even five years later, one is caught between disappointment over how Devers has yet to have a season like that again and excitement about the possibility that he still might. He's a young 27, after all, and even for the last four seasons he's top-10 in total bases and top-five in extra-base hits.
We are, of course, talking about a bat-only player here, but that's borderline picking nits. If Devers' 2019 season is the achievable ceiling of said bat, then said bat is enough.
17. CF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
14 of 30
Age: 32
2023 Stats: 82 G, 362 PA, 18 HR, 2 SB, .263 AVG, .367 OBP, .490 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 2.6
We're living in the post-prime era of Mike Trout's superstardom, and it's kind of a drag.
It's a secret to nobody that the single biggest item on the three-time MVP's agenda for 2024 is simply staying healthy. He hasn't made it through a season unscathed since 2016, and he's played in less than half the Angels' games over the last three years.
At the same time, though, talk of where Trout's stardom is right now can only get so gloomy. It was as recently as 2022 that he cranked 40 homers and finished one point short of a 1.000 OPS. And even last year, his Statcast profile was still littered with red, including 95th-percentile ratings for his barrel and hard-hit rates.
Further, it's some comfort that his most recent catastrophic injury was basically a fluke. If he can put that behind him (and keep his back condition at bay), this season could be the beginning of a Trout-essaince.
16. CF Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox
15 of 30
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 145 G, 595 PA, 38 HR, 20 SB, .264 AVG, .315 OBP, .542 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.1
It was previously only possible to dream of what Luis Robert Jr. would do if he stayed on the field for a full 162-game season. The 2023 campaign was thus an awakening, and it ruled.
The 38 homers Robert hit shattered Magglio Ordóñez's previous high for a 20-steal season in a White Sox uniform. And while he lost out to Kevin Kiermaier—no shame in that, mind you—he was still a finalist for his second Gold Glove.
Robert hopefully has it in mind to improve his approach this year. He basically succeeded in spite of this facet of his game last year, wherein he ranked no higher than the 14th percentile with his chase, whiff, strikeout and walk rates.
Between this and the potential for further injury trouble, it's possible that last year was Robert hitting his ceiling. But if that's how high he can go, then the dream hasn't so much ended as changed genres.
15. SS Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins
16 of 30
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 135 G, 580 PA, 18 HR, 0 SB, .230 AVG, .312 OBP, .399 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 3.7
Following a winter in which his medical records squashed not one, but two $300 million contract agreements, an unhealthy 2023 season probably isn't what Carlos Correa had in mind for a revenge tour.
You have to hand it to him for playing in as many as 135 games, but he just never got going as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. His OPS went above .800 for one of the season's six months, and that was when he played in only 12 games in September.
Still, this is still a guy who ranks second among all shortstops in rWAR dating back to 2015. A whopping 12.7 rWAR came across the 2021 and 2022 seasons, which...[checks notes]...really wasn't that long ago.
It's not a strong take to say that a healthy Correa in 2024 would likely be an elite shortstop. Perhaps it's more of a cross-your-fingers proposal, but it's one worth making anyway.
14. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
17 of 30
Age: 36
2023 Stats: 154 G, 687 PA, 25 HR, 11 SB, .268 AVG, .363 OBP, .447 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 1.7
This space should arguably belong to Nolan Arenado on account of how he's signed beyond 2024. But Paul Goldschmidt was in St. Louis first, and a deal keeping him there beyond this season may yet materialize.
In the meantime, Goldschmidt is going into this season looking for redemption after he didn't quite live up to his MVP-winning performance from 2022 last year. He lost 171 points off his OPS, mainly by way of a massive decline in his slugging percentage.
This shouldn't have been the case, however. Goldschmidt's expected slugging percentage actually increased from '22 to '23. Which tracked, as he made pretty much across-the-board improvements with his contact quality.
Put another way, last season wasn't so much the beginning of the end of Goldschmidt's prime as him racking up a balance for outstanding good luck. Consider that your warning, everyone who's not Goldschmidt or any other member of the Cardinals.
13. 3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
18 of 30
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 138 G, 601 PA, 30 HR, 3 SB, .258 AVG, .319 OBP, .462 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 3.4
The Padres have three guys signed for at least another 10 seasons, but only one of them will have been paid $458 million when his time is up. And that's this guy, Manny Machado.
His ups in San Diego have also come with some downs, including last year by way of a 116-point hit to his OPS from 2022 and surgery to repair the extensor tendon in his right elbow. It wasn't the best way to begin his 30s, much less his freshly inked $350 million contract.
Machado has long tended to bounce back from down seasons, however, and it's hard to fathom why this season will be different. He'll even be riding some momentum into Opening Day after finishing last year strong with an .878 OPS and 21 homers from July 1 onward.
Plus, at a certain point you just have a defer to a guy's overall track record. In this case, we're talking about a guy who ranks fifth among position players in rWAR for the last decade and who's still in his prime years.
12. 2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
19 of 30
Age: 33
2023 Stats: 90 G, 410 PA, 17 HR, 14 SB, .311 AVG, .393 OBP, .522 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 2.6
Jose Altuve is about to go into his age-34 season, yet the Astros were so determined to lock him down beyond it that they agreed to pay $125 million for the privilege.
There's risk there, alright, but that's for another day. What matters today is that Altuve is A) holding up fairly well physically and B) that he can still rake.
Though he missed basically half of 2023, a lot of that was because of a fluke thumb injury that he sustained during the World Baseball Classic. It ultimately didn't stop him from batting over .300 with an OPS in the .900s for the second time in as many years, not to mention for the fourth time in his career.
Altuve isn't going to steal bases like he used to, and it's best if we just ignore his defense. But his bat alone is going to sustain him as a superstar, which is to say nothing of what the Astros will likely get from him if they make the playoffs. He's kind of a legend in October.
11. SS Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
20 of 30
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 160 G, 687 PA, 31 HR, 31 SB, .254 AVG, .336 OBP, .470 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.4
Francisco Lindor is about to begin his 10th season in the majors. It's fair to say that the first nine were a resounding success.
With his most recent feat being the 6.0 rWAR that he paired with his 31 homers and 31 steals last year, Lindor is now all alone in the lead among all shortstops in that department dating back to his rookie season in 2015. And there's little reason to think he'll slow down soon.
Defensively, Lindor has yet to dip into below average territory in any season as he's racked up an MLB-high 123 Outs Above Average since 2016. Likewise, there was nary a below average metric to be found among his under-the-hood offensive stats from last year.
Granted, last year likely represents the most that Lindor is capable of in a season at this stage. But even if he doesn't go beyond that, simply doing it all over again would allow him to retain his claim to the throne of baseball's best shortstop.
10. SS Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
21 of 30
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 119 G, 536 PA, 33 HR, 2 SB, .327 AVG, .390 OBP, .623 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.4
There is, unfortunately, no separating Corey Seager from his injury history.
Going back to 2018, a variety of ailments have limited him to playing in just 66 percent of possible games. And so it already goes this year, as Seager is a question mark for Opening Day after having hernia surgery.
Otherwise, what a healthy Seager is capable of isn't some great mystery. He's hit exactly 33 homers in each of the last two seasons and topped a .900 OPS three times in four tries since 2020. Which is to say nothing of his postseason work, about which there's nothing left to say that hasn't already been said.
Factoring in that he's low-key a solid defender, the injury thing is really all there is holding Seager back in any discussion about the best shortstops in MLB. And even with it, he's indeed firmly in said discussion.
9. 1B Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
22 of 30
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 126 G, 546 PA, 21 HR, 11 SB, .293 AVG, .401 OBP, .499 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 3.1
Bryce Harper is about to be a full-time first baseman for the first time in his career, and it's a step down on the defensive spectrum from his former haunt in right field.
That's too bad, but it would be more alarming if Harper didn't have the bat for the cold corner. The opposite is true, to a point where he could even challenge Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson as the best of the best at first base.
Harper has a .912 OPS for his career, and even a quick return from Tommy John surgery didn't keep him from landing in that general area last year. And several of his metrics landed in the 90th percentile range, including his walk rate and barrel rate.
You can pretty much put Harper down for 35-to-40 home runs, a .400-something OBP and a .900-something OPS. And that's just in the regular season. Historically, he's closer to a 1.000 OPS guy in the playoffs.
8. 3B José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians
23 of 30
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 156 G, 691 PA, 24 HR, 28 SB, .282 AVG, .356 OBP, .475 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.6
José Ramírez is going to finish in at least the top 10 in the voting for the American League MVP this year. This is not a guess. It is a mathematical certainty.
He's finished in said top 10 in six of the last seven seasons, and if anything the surprise is that he hasn't run into the No. 1 spot yet. Only Aaron Judge has him beat among American League position players in rWAR during this span.
Ramírez is at a point in his career where he perhaps should be slowing down, but you'd never know it. He remains an annual 25-25 threat, with peripheral skills that include an elite knack for making contact and a preternatural feel for pulling fly balls for easy power.
This is also a guy who posts, as he's played in 150-plus games five times since 2017. It's as if somebody made him in a lab to rack up 5-rWAR seasons. Not saying it's true, but I'm not not saying it's true either.
7. SS Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
24 of 30
Age: 23
2023 Stats: 158 G, 694 PA, 30 HR, 49 SB, .276 AVG, .319 OBP, .495 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.6
There's a reason the Royals just made Bobby Witt Jr. by far the richest player in their history, and it can be summarized like so: Because he's awesome.
This is undeniably true on the level of pure tools. Witt tied Elly De La Cruz for the fastest average sprint last season, which is part of the reason he joined Jimmy Rollins as the only two players to have joined the 20-10-30-40 Club in a single season.
Witt also improved his power, adding exactly 1 mph to his average exit velocity from 2022 to 2023. Look just a little closer, and you'll also see that Witt narrowly missed out on the top 10 for all defenders by racking up 14 Outs Above Average.
The one thing Witt still needs to work on is tailoring his approach to greater consistency, yet that process is also underway. With both his walk and strikeout rates having improved from '22 to '23, he's this close to having every possible box for superstardom checked.
6. RF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
25 of 30
Age: 23
2023 Stats: 155 G, 645 PA, 25 HR, 54 SB, .285 AVG, .362 OBP, .506 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.6
If there were two reasons why Corbin Carroll's $111 million contract was a good idea from the start, they're these: He's super talented and he couldn't have picked a better time to come along.
The bigger bases and his blazing speed went together as well as anyone could have expected. He was caught only five times in the process of stealing those 54 bags, helping to result in a hilariously large lead in baserunning value.
Not that Arizona necessarily needs more power from Carroll, but he could have more to offer anyway. He hit 21 of his 25 homers through July 23, at which point he was fifth among all position players in fWAR. Had he stayed on that pace, he might have hit 35 homers.
If that's Carroll's ceiling, then we're talking the best power-speed threat this side of Ronald Acuña Jr. Even if he merely adheres to the floor he established in 2023, that's still MVP candidate-level production.
5. C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
26 of 30
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 154 G, 687 PA, 20 HR, 1 SB, .277 AVG, .374 OBP, .435 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 5.1
The Orioles have a .593 winning percentage in the games Adley Rutschman has played for them. They're also the fourth-winningest team in MLB since he debuted on May 21, 2022.
Neither of these things is a coincidence, but you knew that. Catcher is the single most important position on the diamond, and Rutschman's reputation as the best in the game right now is pretty much unassailable.
He's the top offensive force at the position over the last two years, for which he boasts an .808 OPS and 33 home runs over 267 games. And while the quality of his contact does leave room for doubt over whether he has more than 20-homer power, such things as a 91st-percentile walk rate and 90th-percentile strikeout rate will always go together well.
There's also nary a weakness to be found in Rutschman's defensive skill set, as the throwing, blocking and receiving are all there. Between all this and his youth, he's everything the Orioles or any other team could ever want in a franchise catcher.
4. CF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
27 of 30
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 106 G, 458 PA, 37 HR, 3 SB, .267 AVG, .406 OBP, .613 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.7
Even a spot this high up still somehow feels low for Aaron Judge. He's only averaged 6.0 rWAR per year since his rookie breakout in 2017, after all, mostly by way of destroying unsuspecting baseballs.
In his possession are both the American League rookie home run record (52) and, of course, the overall American League home run record (62). He might have even challenged the latter if he'd stayed healthy in 2023, as he was on a 57-homer pace for a 162-game season.
It was a toe injury that did Judge in, but that's nothing worth worrying about going into 2024. It happened on a fluke collision, and it was officially declared a "resolved issue" in December.
What is worth worrying about is Judge playing center field on a daily basis. It's a big ask for any guy going into his age-32 season, much less one who tips the scales at 6'7", 282 pounds. If the Yankees aren't careful, it might not be fluke injuries that do Judge in this time.
3. 2B Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
28 of 30
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 152 G, 693 PA, 39 HR, 14 SB, .307 AVG, .408 OBP, .579 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 4.9
"What about Shohei Ohtani?" is probably what you just blurted out. And it's a fair question, given that he's on the Dodgers by way of the largest contract in sports history.
But consider that:
- Mookie Betts was there first
- These rankings are about 2024 only
- Ohtani won't be pitching again until 2025
For his part, Betts' 2023 season was in some ways even more impressive than when he racked up 10.7 rWAR in an MVP-winning season back in 2018. There was some Ben Zobrist energy to his "Can do!" attitude about playing all over the diamond, only Zobrist never sniffed a .300/.400/.500 slash line and 40 homers.
Betts' full-time move to second base is a drag in that it closes the book on one of the greatest ever runs in right field, but it's for the best. His best work in the outfield is behind him, whereas he tied for seventh among second basemen in Defensive Runs Saved last year despite not even cracking 500 innings at the position.
Betts is at an age where durability can't be taken as a given, but there's otherwise little to no reason to doubt he's going to be himself this year. As in, a guy who's steadily building a resume worthy of the Hall of Fame.
2. CF Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners
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Age: 23
2023 Stats: 155 G, 714 PA, 32 HR, 37 SB, .275 AVG, .333 OBP, .485 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 5.7
Only nine center fielders have ever amassed as much as 11 rWAR through their age-22 season. On that list are four Hall of Famers, a hopeful Hall of Famer, a still-active future Hall of Famer and Julio Rodríguez.
After he became the fastest rookie ever to go 25-25 in 2022, him making the jump to a 30-30 season in 2023 is among the least surprising things to have ever happened. The natural next step is to 40-40, and does anyone seriously doubt he can do it?
As nice as more walks and fewer strikeouts would be, Rodríguez has done enough to prove he can get by on his power and speed alone. Both are elite, with his exit velocity ranking in the 95th percentile in 2023 and his sprint speed ranking in the 96th.
By way of 20 Outs Above Average over the last two years, this is also one of the elite center fielders in MLB. Which brings us to a notion worth bookmarking for later: With Shohei Ohtani now in the National League, is there a more obvious favorite for the AL MVP in 2024?
1. RF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta
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Age: 26
2023 Stats: 159 G, 735 PA, 41 HR, 73 SB, .337 AVG, .416 OBP, .596 SLG
2024 ZiPS WAR: 7.5
Ronald Acuña Jr. was on his way to winning the NL MVP when he tore his ACL in 2021, and it might as well have cost him two years. He just wasn't at full strength after returning in 2022.
Well, Acuña is clearly a believer in making up for lost time. And that he went 40-70 might only account for half the sheer impressiveness of his 2023 season. It's not to be overlooked that he struck out just four more times than he walked, resulting in a top-five ratio.
The one flaw in Acuña's profile these days is that he doesn't rate well as a defender, though Defensive Runs Saved rightfully gives him credit for his rocket arm. Yet I'd wager that him not being very rangy is a good thing. It was being overambitious that got him hurt in '21. If he's intentionally scaling it back to stay healthy, then so be it.
As the only player to ever record 160 homers and 180 steals through his age-25 season, Acuña is well on his way to being the best power-speed threat in MLB history. The only question is what his next feat will be. 40-80? 45-45? Heck, 50-50?
Go ahead. Take your pick.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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