Final Predictions for 2024 MLB Hall of Fame Voting Results
The 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame voting results will be revealed Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network, and there will be some mystery to the outcome this time around.
All signs point to third baseman Adrián Beltré deservedly earning first-ballot induction, but who will join him and manager Jim Leyland, who was elected by the Contemporary Era Baseball Committee?
Holdovers Todd Helton and Billy Wagner are both trending toward induction, while first-timer Joe Mauer is also above the 75 percent threshold with a little over half of balloting results made public. Just below that cut-off is slugger Gary Sheffield, who is in his 10th and final year of eligibility and is looking to get the call before he falls off the ballot.
Before the results are released, it's time for one final round of predictions on how the voting will play out this year.
These predictions could not have been made without the early voting data tirelessly compiled by Ryan Thibodaux and his team at Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker and his data from past years.
Let's get to the predictions.
David Wright Will Stick Around for Another Year
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There is a steep drop-off among first-time eligible players on this year's ballot behind the trio of Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley.
Among the nine other first-year candidates, David Wright (13 votes) is the only other player trending toward having another year on the ballot. With an estimated 384 voters this year, it will once again take 20 total votes for players on the cut line to survive another year.
Here's a quick rundown of the newcomers poised to go one-and-done:
- José Bautista (3 votes)
- Matt Holliday (2 votes)
- Victor Martinez (2 votes)
- Bartolo Colón (1 vote)
- Adrián González (0 votes)
- Brandon Phillips (0 votes)
- José Reyes (0 votes)
- James Shields (0 votes)
Outfielder Torii Hunter (9 votes) is trending toward falling off the ballot in his fourth year of eligibility after receiving 6.9 percent support in 2023. Meanwhile, workhorse starter Mark Buehrle (15 votes) and closer Francisco Rodríguez (13 votes) also have some work to do to stick around.
Chase Utley Will Lay a Strong Foundation for Future Induction
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Chase Utley is not going to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but strong support in his first year of eligibility does suggest he might eventually find his way to Cooperstown in the coming years.
Utley has received 40.9 percent of the vote with roughly half of the ballots revealed, and while there is still a long way to go to bridge the gap to the 75 percent threshold, that initial showing lines up with another notable second baseman who eventually received the call.
Chicago Cubs star Ryne Sandberg received 49.2 percent of the vote in his first year of eligibility in 2003, saw that total climb to 61.1 percent in his second year, then made the jump to 76.6 percent in his third year to earn induction.
The two players also have comparable numbers:
It might take a few years, but Utley is laying the groundwork for a legitimate Hall of Fame push in the coming years.
Gary Sheffield Will Fall Short in His Final Year of Eligibility
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Slugger Gary Sheffield has the numbers to be a Hall of Famer.
He tallied 509 home runs and 1,676 RBI over 22 seasons in the big leagues, and he was a nine-time All-Star who finished in the top 10 in MVP voting six different times while suiting up for eight different teams.
His involvement in the BALCO scandal and admitted steroid use kept him from receiving even 20 percent of the vote during his first five years on the ballot, and while he has made some progress in recent years, it's shaping up to be too little, too late.
- 2019: 13.6 percent
- 2020: 30.5 percent
- 2021: 40.6 percent
- 2022: 40.6 percent
- 2023: 55.0 percent
He is sitting at 74.7 percent support on public ballots in his 10th and final year of eligibility, but it's worth noting that he had one of the largest gaps between his public and private voting percentage support (-13.2%) in 2023. It looks like his fate will be in the hands of the Veterans Committee going forward.
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Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltrán Will Be on Track for 2025 Induction
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Two of the greatest center fielders of the past 25 years could end up entering the hallowed halls of Cooperstown together in 2025.
Switch-hitter Carlos Beltrán is one of only five players in MLB history with 400 home runs and 300 stolen bases, while Andruw Jones is one of the greatest two-way players to ever man center field with 434 home runs and 10 Gold Glove Awards during his 17-year career.
Jones has made impressive headway since just narrowly receiving enough support to stay on the ballot during his first two years of eligibility:
- 2018: 7.3 percent
- 2019: 7.5 percent
- 2020: 19.4 percent
- 2021: 33.9 percent
- 2022: 41.4 percent
- 2023: 58.1 percent
- 2024: 70.6 percent
Beltrán is in just his second year on the ballot, but he came out of the gates strong in 2023 and is trending in the right direction this year:
- 2023: 46.5 percent
- 2024: 66.5 percent
Even if their final 2024 vote totals end up dipping a bit once the final tally is revealed, both players could make a serious push for induction in 2025 when the only shoo-in to be enshrined is Ichiro Suzuki.
Billy Wagner Will Be a Hall of Famer in 2024
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Current 2024 Voting Percentage: 78.4 percent
It has seemingly become a matter of when, not if, Billy Wagner will become the latest relief pitcher to find his way into the Hall of Fame.
Here's a quick rundown of the voting results from his eight years on the ballot:
- 2016: 10.5 percent
- 2017: 10.2 percent
- 2018: 11.1 percent
- 2019: 16.7 percent
- 2020: 31.7 percent
- 2021: 46.4 percent
- 2022: 51.0 percent
- 2023: 68.1 percent
Arguably the greatest left-handed reliever in baseball history, Wagner posted a 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 11.9 K/9 over 16 seasons while tallying 422 saves to rank sixth on the all-time list.
If he fails to get the call in 2024, next year would be Wagner's final year of eligibility, and he doesn't have a huge cushion to guard against a potential private ballot dip. Here's predicting he will stay above the 75 percent threshold by the narrowest of margins.
Todd Helton Will Be a Hall of Famer in 2024
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Current 2024 Voting Percentage: 82.5 percent
Todd Helton ranks 14th all-time among first basemen with 61.8 WAR, and the only players ahead of him on that list who are not currently enshrined in Cooperstown are either not yet eligible (Albert Pujols, Joey Votto) or have a legacy tainted by steroid use (Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire).
His ascent from ballot afterthought to the doorstep of the Hall of Fame has been a rapid one:
- 2019: 16.5 percent
- 2020: 29.2 percent
- 2021: 44.9 percent
- 2022: 52.0 percent
- 2023: 72.2 percent
He missed election by just 11 votes last year, and similar to Larry Walker who needed the full 10 years to earn induction, Helton is up against a bias many have toward players who used Coors Field to pile up gaudy offensive numbers.
He spent his entire 17-year career in a Colorado Rockies uniform, and while his numbers were definitely better at home, he was no slouch on the road with an .855 OPS in 4,612 career plate appearances away from Coors Field.
Helton belongs in Cooperstown, and this looks like the year he'll get there.
Joe Mauer Will Be a Hall of Famer in 2024
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Current 2024 Voting Percentage: 83.0 percent
It's a bit surprising to see Joe Mauer on the cusp of becoming a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
That's not to say he doesn't have a Cooperstown-worthy resume, but in the history of Hall of Fame voting, only Johnny Bench and Iván Rodríguez have earned induction in their first year on the ballot among catchers.
It took Yogi Berra and Carlton Fisk two years. It took Mike Piazza four years. It took Gary Carter six years. It took Roy Campanella seven years. Few would rank Mauer ahead of any of those guys on a list of the greatest catchers in MLB history.
That said, only seven times in MLB history has a catcher won the batting title, and three of those belong to Mauer, who paced the AL in batting average in 2006, 2008 and 2009.
He won AL MVP honors in 2009 when he hit .365/.444/.587 with 30 doubles, 28 home runs, 96 RBI and 7.8 WAR, and it's fair to say he lived up to being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2001 draft following a storied prep career as both a baseball and football player.
Concussion issues eventually forced Mauer to shift to first base and cut into his production during the second half of his career, but his peak stacks up to anyone who has ever played the position, and that's the player voters seem to be remembering.
Adrián Beltré Will Be a Hall of Famer in 2024
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Current 2024 Voting Percentage: 99.0 percent
With 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1,707 RBI, five Gold Gloves and 93.5 WAR over 21 seasons, the only sure thing heading into the 2024 voting cycle is that Adrián Beltré was going to be a first-ballot selection.
He tallied at least 3 WAR in 17 of his 21 seasons, providing value in a wide variety of ways from his solid batting average to his middle-of-the-order run production to his standout defense at the hot corner.
He has appeared on 192 of 194 public and private ballots that have been revealed to this point, and he should cruise into the Hall of Fame with one of the highest voting percentages of all-time.
Where does he rank among the greatest third baseman in MLB history?
Check back in the app later today for that article!
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