Bills' 2024 Free Agents, Targets and Draft Needs After NFL Playoff Loss
The Buffalo Bills were widely expected to be one of the NFL's true title contenders in 2023. While the team certainly hit some potholes along the way, Buffalo got hot enough down the stretch to claim the AFC East and the conference's No. 2 seed.
The Bills moved past the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round to set up yet another matchup with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, but the reigning champs won again.
Now that Buffalo's postseason has ended, however, head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane must quickly get back to work.
The AFC has become a conference loaded with talent, and the Bills have several potential question marks heading into the offseason.
The good news is that Buffalo has quarterback Josh Allen under contract for the foreseeable future. However, other areas on the roster have holes, and the Bills could lose several key contributors in free agency.
Here's an early look at what's ahead for the Bills in the 2024 NFL offseason.
Free Agents
1 of 3
Unrestricted Free Agents
QB Kyle Allen
WR Gabe Davis
LB Tyrel Dodson
DE A.J. Epenesa
LB Leonard Floyd
DE Poona Ford
RB Damien Harris
S Micah Hyde
CB Dane Jackson
DT DaQuan Jones
DT Linval Joseph
CB Cam Lewis
DE Shaq Lawson
LB Tyler Matakevich
RB Latavius Murray
DE Jordan Phillips
S Taylor Rapp
DT Tim Settle
WR Trent Sherfield
Restricted/Exclusive-Rights Free Agents
TE Quintin Morris
Buffalo's crop of impending free agents is precisely why the team could be in trouble in 2024.
The Bills finished the regular season ranked fourth in points allowed, but a massive chunk of their defensive line rotation could potentially depart in the offseason. DaQuan Jones is the centerpiece player of the group, but Leonard Floyd, Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, A.J. Epenese, Tim Settle, Linval Joseph and Poona Ford all played roles during the year.
On the back end of the defense, safety Micah Hyde has been a longtime standout, while cornerback Dane Jackson appeared in 15 games with six starts this past season.
Buffalo's defense overcame numerous injuries during the 2023 season. Next year, it might have to overcome a mini makeover.
While things aren't as alarming on the offensive side of the ball, potentially losing No. 2 receiver Gabe Davis could be problematic. Davis rarely takes over games the way that Stefon Diggs occasionally will, but he's been arguably the offense's top deep threat.
Davis led the team with a 16.6 yards-per-catch average while ranking second on the team with 746 yards.
Buffalo will also need to either re-sign or replace Kyle Allen as Josh Allen's understudy at quarterback.
The big issue, though, is Buffalo's cap situation. The Bills are projected to be $46.3 million over the salary cap, which means that a bevy of cuts and contract restructures could be incoming.
Potential Free-Agent/Trade Targets
2 of 3
Because of the salary cap situation, we probably won't see the Bills be major players on the trade market. Should Beane orchestrate enough financial wizardry to make a trade possible, defenders would be the most sensible targets.
However, fans shouldn't expect the Bills to go after potential big-name trade chips like Khalil Mack or Justin Simmons. Buffalo will likely target younger, cheaper options—as was the case when the team acquired Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline.
Players on expiring rookie deals—like New York Giants cornerback Aaron Robinson or Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Cam Sample—are far more likely to interest the Bills.
We also shouldn't expect Buffalo to be a major player in the initial wave of free agency. If Beane can generate enough cap space, a wide receiver like Jaylon Johnson or a defensive tackle like Christian Wilkins would be an ideal target.
However, older veterans who might be had on short-term budget deals—like pass-rusher Justin Houston or safety Tashaun Gipson are far more realistic.
It'll be interesting to see how Bean handles things with Diggs, who remains a No. 1-caliber receiver but who saw a diminished role toward the end of the regular season. Diggs could become a trade candidate, or Buffalo may try to rework his contract, but both routes could get tricky.
Releasing Diggs to create cap space isn't a great option.
Diggs is set to carry a cap hit of $27.9 million in 2024 and has $31.1 million remaining on his contract. Releasing him with a post-June 1 designation would save $19 million in cap space but would trigger dead-cap hits of $8.8 million and $22.2 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Even if the Bills retain Diggs and Davis, they could use more receiver depth behind the duo. Wideouts like Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. would be top-choice targets. Complementary receivers like Tyler Boyd and Donovan Peoples-Jones are more realistic ones.
Draft Targets
3 of 3
The draft is where we could see Buffalo being much more active on the trade front. The Bills are slated to have nine total selections, including picks in the first, second and third rounds, plus a pair of fifth-rounders.
Beane could either move up to secure solutions to specific needs or move down to acquire more draft capital. Neither avenue would be truly surprising.
If the Bills stay in Round 1, two positions make the most sense—wide receiver and pass-rusher. Buffalo needs receiver depth already, and there's a good chance that it doesn't retain both Diggs and Davis. Several Buffalo edge-defenders are set to hit the market, and Von Miller will turn 35 in March.
Because of the makeup of this draft, edge-rusher should be Buffalo's top priority. Fortunately, the draft is expected to be relatively deep at both positions. The Bleacher Report Scouting Department ranked 15 wideouts and 12 edge-defenders inside its top 100 prospects on its latest big board.
Grabbing an edge-rusher like Penn State's Chop Robinson or Washington's Bralen Trice in Round 1, then coming back for a receiver in Round 2 would make plenty of sense. A Day 2 receiver like Texas' Xavier Worthy could be a fine replacement for Davis if one is needed.
"Worthy has a ton of juice. A quick-twitch player at his core, he erupts off the line of scrimmage and kicks into high gear almost immediately," Derrik Klassen of the B/R Scouting Department wrote. "He has the kind of speed that can fundamentally change how a defense calls coverages."
Expect the Bills to largely spend the latter portions of the draft plugging holes in the defense. Prospects like Penn State edge-rusher Adisa Isaac, Kansas safety Kenny Logan Jr., Alabama corner Terrion Arnold and Notre Dame defensive lineman Howard Cross III should all garner some level of interest on Day 3.
.jpg?w=256)
.jpg?w=256 "Texans Giants Football")
.jpg?w=480)
.jpg?w=480 "Texans Giants Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Full Bryce Young Trade Return 🔁")
.jpg?w=600 "Steelers Draft Pittsburgh Native")
.jpg?w=600 "Tyreek, Aiyuk's Best Landing Spots")