Latest Analysis, Predictions on MLB Free-Agency and Trade Rumors
At some point, the deluge of MLB's offseason transactions is coming, right?
Oh, we've had some big-time splashes already. Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers. Juan Soto, Chris Sale, Tyler Glasnow, Robbie Ray and Jarred Kelenic all got traded.
However, the pool of still-available quality free agents—most notably Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Josh Hader and Matt Chapman—remains shockingly deep this late into the winter.
Long-term money might be tight for a few teams dealing with the unknown future of the sinking regional sports networks ship, but those free agents are eventually going to land somewhere, even if it's not on the massive nine-figure deals that were expected.
One potential catalyst: Arbitration figures were due on Jan. 11, with those figures exchanged by 8 pm ET. Teams have surely had their projected expectations since before the offseason even began, but those salaries for arbitration-eligible players—who will make up near half of MLB-wide Opening Day rosters—have still been variables up until this point. Maybe getting those concrete numbers into the balance sheets will finally spark a firestorm of moves.
As we wait for those signings to happen, let's poke around the ol' hot stove for latest rumors and rumblings to put together some thoughts and predictions for the month remaining until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Dylan Cease Trade Talks Still Happening, but Nothing Imminent
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The Rumor: USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweeted Tuesday: "White Sox GM Chris Getz says they have spoken to plenty of teams about trading Dylan Cease, but nothing close at this juncture. 'If we feel like there's a there's a fit that improves our club, we will certainly strongly consider it. Certainly that hasn't happened at this point.'"
ESPN's Jesse Rogers added more on what Getz had to say during his Tuesday video teleconference with reporters, quoting the White Sox general manager:
"It's ever-evolving in terms of the urgency of other clubs. It could be in the offseason, it could [be] at the deadline, it could be in May. There's just so many different factors when you're talking about 29 other clubs. In the case of Dylan, I don't think there's a club out there that hasn't expressed some level of interest in him. All their situations are different."
Rogers added: "Getz's no-nonsense style of negotiating has also led to a clear picture of what kind of package it will take to get a deal done. According to teams that have engaged in talks with the White Sox this offseason: Multiple high-end prospects (one won't be enough) and some 'fill-ins.'"
So, basically, it's going to take a lot to pry Cease away from Chicago, but the White Sox aren't exactly telling other teams that they aren't interested in trading him, which pretty much jives with what we've been hearing/assuming all offseason.
With two years remaining until free agency, one of the highest whiff rates among starting pitchers and well-established durability with 97 starts over the past three seasons, it's quite understandable that Chicago isn't looking to just give Cease away.
Baseball Trade Values puts Cease's "surplus value" at 40.4, which feels egregiously low. It has Reid Detmers (with four years remaining until free agency) at a 45.2, suggesting the Angels would be the ones to decline that one-for-one swap if it were proposed, which is lunacy.
It still feels likely that if Cease is going to get traded, he'll end up with the Baltimore Orioles. They need another starting pitcher, they're not going to pay top dollar for one in free agency and have more than enough expendable, controllable assets to make it happen.
There's no way the O's would give up Jackson Holliday, but we've said often in the past few months that 3B Coby Mayo, No. 27 on Joel Reuter's top 100 prospects list, holds a lot of value as a trade chip, given he's a highly touted prospect with no realistic path to a starting job (barring injury) in Baltimore any time soon.
It's really just a question of whether Baltimore is willing to give up as much as Chicago is demanding in return for Cease, and it wouldn't be a surprise if that tug-of-war negotiation lasts a few months into the regular season.
Jordan Hicks' Market Is 'Picking Up'
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The Rumor: Jon Heyman tweeted late Tuesday night, "Jordan Hicks market picking up. Most of the best relievers remain free. Hader is the top guy but there's also Hicks, Stephenson, Maton, Chapman, Matt Moore, Brasier, Junis, Brebbia, Fujinami, Hand, more."
Even more intriguing than Heyman's tweet about Hicks on Tuesday night was his chat in the B/R app Wednesday afternoon, in which he mentioned multiple times the possibility that Hicks could be used as a starter.
The 27-year-old did make eight starts with the Cardinals in 2022, but they didn't go well. He didn't have the stamina or control necessary for it to feel like a long-term gig, walking multiple batters in each of those starts and not even averaging 10 outs per start.
Considering he relies more or less on a two-pitch arsenal, one of which is a max-effort sinker, it's hard to imagine he'll get another go at a rotational job, but who knows? Heyman's clearly hearing some rumblings about it.
It's much more likely Hicks gets either a setup or closer gig, considering he had 13 holds and 12 saves this past season and has done most of his career work in the late innings. And just about every team could use a somewhat reliable flame-thrower at the back end of its bullpen.
The five teams MLB Trade Rumors mentioned as being previously linked to Hicks are the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Rangers and Astros, but surely there are National League teams interested, as well.
The Phillies, Cubs and Reds would all make sense.
A reunion with the Cards could be in the cards, too.
Can't exactly rule the Dodgers out for any free agent, either.
And SNY's Andy Martino recently said the Mets have around $10 million left to spend on 2024 payroll and they would want to spend that money on relief pitchers. MLBTR's early offseason projection for Hicks' contract? Four years at $10 million per year. Hmm.
It will be interesting to see if Hicks signs before Josh Hader, though. He would become the belle of the reliever ball once Hader is off the market—if he is still wanting to serve as a reliever, that is.
Speaking of Hader...
All Quiet on the Hader Front?
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The Rumor: SNY's Andy Martino reported last week, "According to multiple other teams who have engaged on [Josh] Hader, he is seeking the largest-ever contract for a closer in history." However, it is entirely unclear which team is/teams are ready, willing and able to make that type of financial commitment to the elite reliever.
Devoid of any actual new rumors in the astoundingly quiet Josh Hader market, MLB Trade Rumors ran a poll earlier this week, with around 10,000 readers giving their thoughts on whether the 29-year-old would eclipse Edwin Díaz's $102 million contract from last offseason and where he will land.
On the former question, around 59 percent believe Hader will become the highest-paid reliever ever, which I unhesitatingly would have agreed with two months ago. Sure seems like everyone except for the Dodgers is afraid to spend money, though, which could be why this has turned into such a waiting game that is holding the entire reliever market in stasis.
He probably ends up getting $105 million, but surprising it's taken this long given the precipitous drop from Hader to the next-best free-agent closer.
As far as the team goes, the MLBTR fan vote is quite split. Percentages might have swung a bit by the time you read this, but I'm seeing Dodgers as the "favorite" at 20.4 percent, followed by Rangers (17), Yankees (16), Phillies (13) and Cubs (10).
In other words, it's anyone's guess where this one ends, though I've been suggesting the Rangers as Hader's likeliest landing spot from the outset.
And that could explain the delay, as the World Series champions are perhaps the team being most impacted by the whole Regional Sports Networks mess.
Per Brad Adgate of Forbes, the Rangers were supposed to be getting $111 million annually from Bally Sports for broadcasting rights. But even though MLB has said it will cover at least 80 percent of that planned RSN money if it never comes, that still leaves around $22 million of "who knows if we'll see it?" money for the Rangers—almost exactly what Hader's salary would be on a five-year, $105-$110 million contract.
Is it possible there has already been an unofficial agreement between Hader and the Rangers that they'll sign him if and when the check clears? And if so, at what point does that unofficial agreement expire if the Rangers haven't gotten any more clarity on their finances?
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Tampa Bay Rays Shopping Harold Ramírez
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The Rumor: The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported on Monday that the Tampa Bay Rays have been shopping Harold Ramírez to teams in need of a right-handed bat.
In trading Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers last month, there's no question that the Rays wanted to slash payroll this offseason.
But they are still trying to win in 2024.
They got back Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca in the Glasnow trade, otherwise read as two guys who can actually help them this year at a combined cost (roughly $1.5 million) of about four percent of what they were going to be paying Glasnow and Manuel Margot ($35 million).
And the Luke Raley for José Caballero swap? That did nothing on the payroll front, but they replaced an expendable corner outfielder with a middle infielder who may well start on a regular basis this season with Wander Franco presumably unavailable.
Where does Harold Ramírez fall into that roster-building process?
Fresh off easily the best season of his career, the 29-year-old first baseman/corner outfielder/designated hitter has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining. He made $2.2 million this past season, but Spotrac projects he'll get $6.4 million for 2024. And depending on how he plays this season, anything from $9-13 million could be on the table for 2025.
If they can turn Ramírez into a league-minimum-salary pitcher who could vie for the No. 5 spot in the starting rotation—maybe Yankee-turned-Padre Jhony Brito, as San Diego is woefully short on outfielder/DH options at the moment—it would make sense for them to jump at that opportunity.
Adding a catcher would probably be even better, as they currently have René Pinto's career 188 plate appearances penciled in at starter without a backup even on the 40-man roster.
But, in short, definitely buying the notion that Ramírez is on the trade block, though it's not purely a salary-dump situation. If the Rays do move him this offseason, it's most likely for someone they believe can help their battery in 2024.
Nationals Looking to Add a Left-Handed Slugger
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The Rumor: TalkNats reported that the Washington Nationals are looking for "lefty power."
This narrative originally popped up two weeks ago, and MLB Trade Rumors brought it up again Monday out of the blue with no new rumors to add, but rather a breakdown of where Washington might be able to find that "lefty power" within its budget.
But why is this a thing for the Nationals?
They have left-handed hitting CJ Abrams and switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz, both of whom hit 18 home runs last season.
Dominic Smith certainly wasn't a power bat, but the lefty-hitting first baseman had 12 home runs last season before they non-tendered him.
If you really need left-handed hitting badly enough to put that wish out into the void, just give a roster spot to James Wood—MLB.com's No. 7 overall prospect who has slugged .527 over the past three seasons in the minors.
If they want to take a Jeimer Candelario-like one-year flyer on Joey Gallo, fresh off his fourth consecutive season with a sub-.200 batting average, that's fine. Maybe he'll continue to homer once for every seven whiffs.
It's not like the Nats are anywhere close to competing in 2024, though.
They have some budding stars, but they need at least another year before they can legitimately go for it, if only because giving a combined $70 million to Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg in 2024 makes Detroit paying Miguel Cabrera $28-$32 million annually for the past eight years look like a savvy financial decision.
Maybe if they can get Dylan Carlson (three years of arbitration remaining) from the Cardinals, that would be a good long-term move. But spending much more money for "lefty power" just doesn't make sense here.
Yankees Made an Offer to Blake Snell...But Aren't Close
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The Rumor: Heyman reported the Yankees have made an offer to Blake Snell, but that there is a "big gap between ask and offer."
Originally, this was going to be about the percolating Marcus Stroman/Yankees rumors, which had this closing question:
The big question is: If they do sign Stroman, does that effectively take the Yankees out of the mix for Snell? To sign both, they would need to embrace a payroll on par with what the Mets had last season.
That was written before the "Yankees offer Snell" news broke, yet we're left wondering the same thing after Thursday night's Stroman signing—which was finalized after the Snell offer, as well as after Juan Soto and the Yankees agreed to a $31 million salary to avoid arbitration.
Are the Bronx Bombers still in on the two-time Cy Young winner, whose asking price has been speculated as high as seven years, $200 million?
The reported Stroman deal is two years, $37 million, with a vesting option for a third year. We don't know presently how the money is split between the two seasons, but let's assume 50/50, putting Stroman's 2024 salary at $18.5 million.
That brings New York's payroll to an estimated $285.5 million, which is already more than its $277 million payroll to open last season.
Unless they pull off some sort of Shohei Ohtani deferred magic on a deal with Snell, signing him would bump that payroll to around $315 million.
Can they afford to go that high? Yes, almost certainly.
And after winning just one of the past 23 World Series, is Yankees ownership frustrated enough to embrace the massive luxury tax that will come with it? Again, yes, almost certainly.
They want to win, and they want to do it right now. Not just because it has been so long, but also because Cole (can and probably will opt out of the final four years on his deal next winter), Soto (hitting free agency), Gleyber Torres (free agency) and more might all be leaving after 2024.
They certainly won't be hitting the reset button or anything, but the time to strike is now. And if they can get Snell, I believe they will.
For what it's worth, though: Snell has not pitched well at Yankee Stadium in his career. In 12 starts (all in the 2016-20 timeframe), he had a 5.77 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP, allowing 11 home runs. I believe he would be best situated for success in San Francisco where home runs go to die. But if he wants to go to New York, they'll take him.
Mariners Still Looking for Infielders and Relievers
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The Rumor: Per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said after the Mitch Garver signing and the trades for Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani and Luke Raley, "It's a more complete roster than it was at the beginning of the offseason, and certainly than it was yesterday." But Dipoto added, "I don't think we're done. We still have the desire to find way to get better. And we certainly have the flexibility from a roster standpoint to go do that."
Paraphrasing those statements: We're happy with our roster, but there's more we could do.
Kind of sounds like you're not happy with your roster.
And rightfully so. Going into the season with Josh Rojas (0.4 bWAR in 2023) and Luis Urías (-0.2 bWAR in 2023) as the starting second and third basemen in one order or the other is hardly ideal for a World Series hopeful. (Why did they trade away José Caballero?) And while the bullpen isn't exactly in dire straits, the fact remains that after trading away Paul Sewald at the 2023 deadline, they could use at least one more reliever.
If they want to go the free-agency route to address the infield, Matt Chapman is still out there, but certainly too rich for Seattle's blood. Taking a flyer on one of the elder statesmen—Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria or Justin Turner—is a possibility. But the best bet would be Whit Merrifield.
It's much more likely they'll use what's left of their free-agent budget to sign a reliever and pursue trades to upgrade the infield, with Minnesota's Jorge Polanco and Cincinnati's Jonathan India standing out as the two most likely trade targets.
Long story short, the Mariners aren't finished toying with their roster. Plenty of time left for them to pull off at least one more head-scratcher of a trade before spring training begins.
Jorge Soler and Marlins Haven't Discussed Reunion
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The Rumor: Well, this one isn't even a rumor. Jorge Soler straight up said "There has been no contact with the Marlins," per Yordano Carmona of Pelota Cubana.
Jorge Soler had a $9 million player option to return to Miami in 2024. After swatting 36 home runs this past season, the 31-year-old slugger understandably declined that option in pursuit of a much bigger payday.
But a reunion with Miami always felt plausible, if not the most likely outcome, given the Marlins' dire need for offense. (At this point, I suppose their plan is to use Avisaíl García at DH? Despite a triple-slash of .215/.260/.316 in 135 games played over the past two injury-riddled seasons?)
After GM Kim Ng left the team in mid-October, though, the ever-frugal Marlins have done even less than usual. There had been scuttlebutt of a possible Jesús Luzardo trade, but the only thing they've actually done is trade for a handful of players unlikely to make any tangible impact: Calvin Faucher, Vidal Bruján and Christian Bethancourt.
But to not even reach out to Soler after the past two years?
No wonder Ng skipped town.
What, are they mad at him for not wanting to take a more than 50 percent pay cut after making $19 million in 2023? And they're ready to let that perceived slight be the reason they go into next season with a primary DH whose 2023 OPS was 297 points lower than Soler's?
Sure seems like a good way to guarantee regression to the mean after crashing the postseason with that negative-57 run differential.
If not Miami, though, where does Soler ultimately land?
Both the Padres and Giants need bats, though Soler may prefer to avoid two of the most cavernous stadiums. (He does, however, have a career .929 OPS in 12 games played at Oracle Park.)
Speaking of ballpark splits, Detroit might be the best fit here. Soler destroyed the Tigers for much of his time with the Royals, and they could certainly use another corner outfielder/designated hitter.
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.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
