Making the Case For and Against Yoshinobu Yamamoto's List of MLB Suitors
With seven Major League Baseball franchises still in the mix to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it's honestly a shame that the Japanese ace can only pick one to pitch for.
Only he'll know which is the best for him in the end. But in the meantime, let's play a little armchair quarterback in sizing up his purported suitors.
As Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week, these are the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays. The 25-year-old right-hander has until the end of his posting window at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 4, to pick a winner.
The bidding for Yamamoto could result in a price tag of $300 million or more, which would shatter the record for an international free agent. But let's forget about that for a second and consider the other factors that should or shouldn't make his options appealing.
In other words, here are the cases for and against the seven teams in the mix for Yamamoto, ranked in order of how unsurprising it would be if he signed with each of them.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
1 of 7
2023 Record: 89-73, 3rd in AL East
2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP José Berríos, RHP Chris Bassitt, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, RHP Alek Manoah
The Case for the Blue Jays
Take it for what it's worth—i.e., potentially not much—but Jeff Passan's article for ESPN on Yamamoto from Monday has not one, but two references to Toronto.
The first concerns Yamamoto's best friend/assistant, who he sent to Toronto to take English classes this year. The other concerns Jacob Waguespack, who teamed up and became close with Yamamoto on the Orix Buffaloes after getting his start in MLB with the Blue Jays.
Stuff like this makes one go "Hmmm," but there are also more tangible reasons for Yamamoto to pick the Blue Jays. The chance to join a rotation that had the third-best ERA in the league this year is one. It also can't hurt that the club has state-of-the-art facilities at the Rogers Centre and at its spring training site in Dunedin.
With respect to Kikuchi and Munenori Kawasaki, the Blue Jays have also never had a true Japanese star. If it's of interest to Yamamoto to be the first and to thus stand at the center of attention in two different nations, Canada may be the place for him.
The Case Against the Blue Jays
Then again, that Toronto's rotation is already loaded could just as easily lead one to believe that Yamamoto isn't truly needed there.
Indeed, even the Blue Jays know that what they really need is hitters. Signing Yamamoto would only lessen their budget to add some off the open market, which is thin enough on impact bats as it is.
Then there's the question of how well the Blue Jays are built for the long haul. With Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. only controlled through 2025 and the club's farm system ranked in the bottom third of MLB, the answer might be "not very well."
6. Philadelphia Phillies
2 of 7
2023 Record: 90-72, 2nd in NL East
2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Zack Wheeler, RHP Aaron Nola, LHP Ranger Suárez, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Cristopher Sánchez
The Case for the Phillies
If Yamamoto fancies playing home games in front of the most raucous crowd possible, he can't do better than a team whose fans can get jet-engine levels of loud.
As for why Citizens Bank Park can get so loud, the Phillies are simply good at giving their fans things to cheer for. Especially in October, as they've won more postseason games than any other team over the last two years.
With Bryce Harper set to lead a high-powered offense and Wheeler and Nola slated for the front of a deep rotation, the Phillies have the stars to go far again in 2024 even if they don't sign Yamamoto. There's also more talent on the way from the club's farm system, specifically regarding hurlers Andrew Painter and Mick Abel.
If it indeed matters to Yamamoto to be the first Japanese star his next team has ever had, the Phillies are in the same boat as the Blue Jays. Heck, the next out a Japanese-born pitcher records for the franchise will be its first.
The Case Against the Phillies
Citizens Bank Park is an exciting place, alright, but it also comes with downsides for pitchers.
That's that the park plays hitter-friendly, particularly with regard to the long ball. Per Statcast's metrics, only three stadiums have been better places to hit home runs in the last three seasons.
Otherwise, Yamamoto should beware that the Phillies are an aging team. Harper, Wheeler, Nola, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos will all be at least 31 years old next season.
5. San Francisco Giants
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2023 Record: 79-83, 4th in NL West
2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Logan Webb, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Keaton Winn
The Case for the Giants
It wasn't just that the Giants were a mediocre team in 2023. They were also an excruciatingly boring team that had little to offer in terms of star power or really any kind of rooting interest.
Before anyone asks why this is part of the "Case for" section, here's the point: More so than the Blue Jays or Phillies, the Giants need a star of Yamamoto's caliber.
Besides, he could do worse than San Francisco if he wants a place where he can settle in for a successful major league career. Between Webb, the newly signed Jung Hoo Lee and rookies Harrison and Marco Luciano, the Giants have a solid core of 20-somethings to build on. And contrary to Citizens Bank Park, Oracle Park is nothing if not a pitching haven.
The Giants are also another team that's never had a Japanese star. Given how large the Japanese population in the city is, this feels like a missed opportunity in need of rectification.
The Case Against the Giants
Though it was only two years ago that the Giants won 107 games, Yamamoto would be joining the team at what feels like an uncertain moment.
Even if he were to become part of the Giants' core of 20-somethings, there won't be much left to mine from the club's mediocre farm system going forward. And Scott Boras is right that it's not necessarily San Francisco that's keeping free agents away from the Giants, but rather the stiffness of the competition in the National League West.
All of this is to say nothing of what the Giants will still need even if they do sign Yamamoto. Namely, bats for an offense that finished second-to-last in the NL in scoring this year.
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4. Boston Red Sox
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2023 Record: 78-84, 5th in AL East
2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Chris Sale, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck
The Case for the Red Sox
If Yamamoto wants to go where he would have the biggest impact, it should be Boston.
Whereas his other suitors already have at least one No. 1-type starter, the Red Sox do not. This is assuming, of course, that one's perception of Sale is not stuck in 2018, when he was a strikeout machine and generally one of MLB's best pitchers.
Yamamoto could also turn to the Red Sox if he wants to have a familiar face in the clubhouse. He and Masataka Yoshida played together for six years with Orix and, to hear it from Yoshida, the two are "close to each other."
The Red Sox's future, meanwhile, looks brighter than their present. The club already has a strong young core, with more impact talent standing by in its third-ranked farm system. It should also appeal to Yamamoto that new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is building a pitching program meant to maximize "upside arms."
The Case Against the Red Sox
The Red Sox probably have more hope for the future than the Giants, but they have a similar problem in that the American League East is stacked with foes who are more ready to win now.
As to other matters, let's just say that Yamamoto can do better than Boston if he wants as many advantages as he can get on the field.
Per Statcast, only Coors Field has been more hitter-friendly than Fenway Park over the last three years. And because it ranked dead-last with minus-50 Outs Above Average in 2023, "atrocious" is too kind an adjective for Boston's defense.
3. New York Mets
5 of 7
2023 Record: 75-87, 4th in NL East
2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kodai Senga, LHP José Quintana, RHP Luis Severino, RHP Adrian Houser, RHP Tylor Megill
The Case for the Mets
It's a rough season the Mets are coming off, but Yamamoto could sign with them with full confidence that the resources to make W's happen will be there.
Steve Cohen is comically wealthier than other MLB owners, and it's shown as he's greenlit franchise-record payrolls in each of the last three seasons. The last one may not have worked out but, hey, at least they got out of it and rebuilt their farm system into one of MLB's best in the process.
Like with the Red Sox, there would also be a familiar face for Yamamoto in the Mets' clubhouse. That's Senga, who's known Yamamoto since he was 20 and who hasn't been shy in advocating for him to come aboard.
As to the surrounding area, baseball markets don't get bigger in New York. And if the Mets win the Yamamoto sweepstakes, it would be the biggest sign yet that their mission is to become the ultimate baseball institution in the city.
The Case Against the Mets
Alas, here's where we run into another "Nice Try, But the Competition Is Better" conundrum.
No matter what the Mets do the rest of the winter, they're going to enter 2024 as a third wheel behind Atlanta and the Phillies in the NL East. Neither will sustain as a World Series contender forever, but both of their contention windows should have a couple of years left.
Further, the Mets' current core of stars isn't necessarily built to last. Pete Alonso will be a free agent after next season, while Senga, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil are all north of 30 years old.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
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2023 Record: 100-62, 1st in NL East
2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Tyler Glasnow, RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Bobby Miller, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Emmet Sheehan
The Case for the Dodgers
Behold the one team in the race for Yamamoto that checks boxes as A) a tried-and-true contender, B) an impeccably well-run organization, C) loaded with stars and D) smack in the middle of a big market.
The Dodgers have won 91 more games than any other team since 2013, for which it's helped that they've been a player development machine with a knack for maximizing pitchers. They've also been willing to carry top-five payrolls annually and, as you may have heard, they now have two of the three highest-paid players in MLB history.
One is Shohei Ohtani and the other is Mookie Betts, though fellow MVP Freddie Freeman must also be mentioned for the sake of accounting for every member of what should be an all-time great offensive trio.
Factoring in that Los Angeles, which is the second-biggest market in baseball, has the biggest Japanese population of any state in the Lower 48, the Dodgers might be called the safe choice for Yamamoto.
The Case Against the Dodgers
If Yamamoto doesn't want to be second fiddle to anyone, he should steer clear of the Dodgers.
He is a big deal, alright, but he's not an Ohtani-level big deal. This is true even if the focus is narrowed to Japan, where Google interest in Ohtani has routinely dwarfed that of Yamamoto.
And with the Dodgers being the Dodgers, Yamamoto would almost certainly be asked to defer a chunk of his contract if he were to sign with him. Not a deal-breaker, perhaps, but also not ideal given that this is meant to be his first major payday.
1. New York Yankees
7 of 7
2023 Record: 82-80, 4th in AL East
2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Carlos Rodón, RHP Clarke Schmidt, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Clayton Beeter
The Case for the Yankees
If Yamamoto signs with the Yankees, he'll have taken the baton from Hideki Matsui and Masahiro Tanaka to carry on a rich history of Japanese stars in pinstripes.
The stakes would be high indeed. With the counter now at 14 years since the Yankees' last trip to the World Series, the task before Yamamoto would be to help restore MLB's most storied franchise to proper glory. Championship No. 28 would be a must.
An enticing challenge if there ever was one, but not an impossible one. Even after what general manager Brian Cashman called a "disaster" of a season, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Gerrit Cole and company have the Yankees projected to be among MLB's best in 2024.
Yamamoto signing with the Yankees would also set up a clash of sorts. With him in New York and Ohtani and Los Angeles, whether the Yankees or Dodgers would capture the most hearts and minds would be a storyline in both the United States and Japan.
The Case Against the Yankees
The Yankees are built to win, alright. Just maybe not for very long.
Soto is only guaranteed to stick around through the end of 2024, which will otherwise mark Judge's age-32 season and Cole's age-33 season. It'll also be Giancarlo Stanton's age-34 season, though it's doubtful anyone will dispute that the end of his prime has already passed.
None of this is a good omen, and particularly not against the backdrop that is the Yankees' largely disappointing track record with developing homegrown talent over the last 20-plus years. To this end, that the farm system is in just-OK shape right now is another bad omen.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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