Predicting MLB's 10 Trade Chips Who Will Make the Biggest 2024 Impact
The biggest domino on the MLB offseason trade market has already fallen after Juan Soto was traded to the New York Yankees earlier this month, but there are still several impact players who could be on the move this winter.
A slow-moving free-agent market has also meant little in the way of blockbuster deals beyond the Soto trade, but once a few more big names come off the board in free agency, more teams will start to shift their attention to the trade block.
Ahead we've predicted the 10 remaining trade chips who will have the biggest impact during the 2024 season, including a look at their projected numbers courtesy of the Depth Charts projections from FanGraphs.
Let's start with a quick rundown of the top hitter and pitchers who have already been traded this offseason.
Already Traded: Top 5 Hitters
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OF Mark Canha, Detroit Tigers
125 G, 113 wRC+, .258/.353/.407, 39 XBH (14 HR), 60 RBI, 62 R, 1.5 WAR
Canha posted a 120 OPS+ with 10 doubles, five home runs and 33 RBI in 50 games after he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers at the deadline. The 34-year-old was then traded again to Detroit at the start of the offseason, and the Tigers exercised an $11.5 million club option shortly after he was acquired.
OF Tyler O'Neill, Boston Red Sox
125 G, 105 wRC+, .247/.327/.443, 47 XBH (22 HR), 70 RBI, 66 R, 1.7 WAR
An obvious change of scenery candidate after a few disappointing seasons in St. Louis, O'Neill is still not all that far removed from a 34-homer, 6.1-WAR campaign in 2021 when he also won his second straight Gold Glove. The Red Sox didn't give up much to acquire him, and he could be one of the steals of the offseason.
OF Juan Soto, New York Yankees
157 G, 170 wRC+, .284/.425/.557, 67 XBH (39 HR), 110 RBI, 113 R, 6.8 WAR
The biggest domino to fall on the offseason trade market by a wide margin, Soto is a perennial MVP candidate who has the offensive tools to transform a Yankees lineup that has leaned too heavily on Aaron Judge in recent years. Will he sign a long-term extension before Opening Day, or is he just a one-year rental?
3B Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Diamondbacks
144 G, 99 wRC+, .232/.322/.409, 49 XBH (23 HR), 77 RBI, 73 R, 1.6 WAR
Suárez should be an upgrade over fellow veteran Evan Longoria who posted a 93 OPS+ with 11 home runs and 28 RBI in 74 games at Arizona's primary third baseman last year. He strikes out a ton, but Suárez is also a consistent 30-homer threat with a reliable glove at third base and a valuable veteran voice in the locker room.
OF Alex Verdugo, New York Yankees
118 G, 107 wRC+, .267/.327/.417, 40 XBH (13 HR), 59 RBI, 61 R, 1.6 WAR
The appetizer to the Juan Soto trade was the Yankees acquiring Verdugo in a rare trade with the rival Red Sox. The 27-year-old never quite lived up to being the centerpiece of the Mookie Betts trade in Boston, but he has averaged 2.9 WAR per 162 games over the past five seasons with a 106 OPS+ in 2,448 plate appearances during that stretch.
Honorable Mentions: 1B/OF Jake Bauers (MIL), C Christian Bethancourt (MIA), OF Trent Grisham (NYY), C Kyle Higashioka (SD), OF Jarred Kelenic (ATL), IF Nicky Lopez (ATL), C Max Stassi (CWS), IF Abraham Toro (OAK), IF Luis Urías (SEA)
Already Traded: Top 5 Pitchers
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LHP Aaron Bummer, Atlanta Braves
60 G, 12 HLD, 3-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 0.6 WAR
The Braves acquired Bummer in a roster consolidation move that sent five players to the Chicago White Sox, and he is entering the final guaranteed season of a five-year, $16 million extension. The sinkerballer struggled to a 6.79 ERA in 61 appearances last year, but his 3.58 FIP and .340 BABIP indicate some significant bad luck.
RHP Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
28 GS, 12-8, 3.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 52 BB, 207 K, 164.0 IP, 3.8 WAR
Glasnow has always had elite stuff when healthy with a 3.20 ERA and 526 strikeouts in 388.1 innings during his six years in Tampa Bay, but the 2023 season marked the first time in his career that he has reached 20 starts and 120 innings. The 30-year-old is expected to agree to an extension with the Dodgers with one year and $25 million left on his current deal.
LHP Marco Gonzales, Pittsburgh Pirates
24 GS, 7-10, 4.91 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 43 BB, 94 K, 142.0 IP, 0.9 WAR
The Atlanta Braves acquired Gonzales in the Jarred Kelenic trade with the Seattle Mariners, then flipped him to the Pirates for cash considerations. The 31-year-old has a $12.25 million salary for 2024 with a $15 million club option for 2025 that does not have a buyout. He dealt with some injuries last year, but has been a reliable workhorse throughout his career and will provide veteran leadership on a young Pittsburgh staff.
RHP Michael King, San Diego Padres
40 G, 23 GS, 9-8, 3.86 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 54 BB, 148 K, 144.0 IP, 2.0 WAR
One of the key pieces the Padres acquired in the Juan Soto trade, King had a 2.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 127 strikeouts in 104.2 innings spanning nine starts and 40 relief appearances. The 28-year-old is controllable through 2025 and will likely slot into a San Diego rotation that stands to lose Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha in free agency.
RHP Michael Soroka, Chicago White Sox
40 G, 21 GS, 7-9, 4.34 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 45 BB, 119 K, 137.0 IP, 1.3 WAR
Soroka looked like a star on the rise in 2019 when he finished 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 142 strikeouts in 174.2 innings as a 21-year-old rookie to finish runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year voting and sixth in NL Cy Young voting. A series of injuries have limited him to just 46 total innings in the four years since, and he was a non-tender candidate before he was acquired by the White Sox in the aforementioned Aaron Bummer deal. Still just 26 years old, he is entering his final year of arbitration control.
Honorable Mentions: RHP Nick Anderson (KC), RHP Scott Barlow (CLE), RHP Jhony Brito (SD), RHP Dylan Coleman (HOU), RHP Enyel De Los Santos (SD), RHP Cal Quantrill (COL), LHP Jared Shuster (CWS), RHP Drew Thorpe (SD), RHP Randy Vasquez (SD)
SS Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers
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Projections: 151 G, 103 wRC+, .237/.319/.436, 59 XBH (27 HR), 87 RBI, 80 R, 3.1 WAR
The Milwaukee Brewers decision on whether to trade Willy Adames this offseason could come down to what they do with teammate Corbin Burnes. If no one is willing to meet their asking price on the 2021 NL Cy Young winner, they will likely just stand pat and try to win another NL Central title.
If Adames is aggressively shopped, there should be plenty of interest in a market that is lacking in shortstop options beyond bounce-back candidate Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
His batting average and strikeout rate leave something to be desired, but Adames has averaged 30 home runs and 95 RBI per 162 games the past three seasons while playing rock solid defense at shortstop.
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OF Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
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Projections: 152 G, 123 wRC+, .259/.346/.445, 56 XBH (23 HR), 86 RBI, 86 R, 3.0 WAR
The idea of trading Randy Arozarena would be incomprehensible for a major market team, but for the Tampa Bay Rays, it's simply the cost of doing business as they are in a constant cycle of trying to make the roster younger and cheaper.
The 28-year-old earned $4.2 million in his first year of arbitration in 2023, and that is projected to more than double to $9 million after he posted a 120 OPS+ with 23 home runs, 83 RBI, 20 steals and 3.5 WAR while being voted to start the All-Star Game.
Once Cody Bellinger picks his next team, the market for Arozarena could heat up with limited alternative options for teams looking to add an impact bat in free agency. With club control through the 2026 season, the Rays' asking price will be steep, but they won't hesitate to flip him if someone is willing to pay that price.
RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
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Projections: 31 GS, 11-11, 3.92 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 51 BB, 182 K, 193.0 IP, 2.9 WAR
Shane Bieber is not the same overpowering starter who won AL Cy Young honors during the shortened 2020 season, with his fastball velocity dipping from 94.1 mph during that peak-level campaign to 91.3 mph in 2023.
That said, he is still a durable veteran capable of filling the No. 2 or No. 3 starter role in a contender's rotation, and his $12.2 million projected salary in his final year of arbitration represents solid value in a market where Kyle Gibson received a one-year, $13 million deal.
The emergence of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen alongside a healthy Triston McKenzie gives Cleveland a terrific collection of talented young arms, which should help the always cost-conscious Guardians move on from their homegrown ace.
RHP Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
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Projections: 32 GS, 12-11, 3.70 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 63 BB, 222 K, 200.0 IP, 3.8 WAR
An extension with Corbin Burnes has looked like a longshot for the Milwaukee Brewers since tension between the two sides went public following last year's arbitration hearing. Whether it's an offseason trade, midseason trade or departure in free agency, he will be pitching in another uniform before long.
General manager Matt Arnold told reporters at the winter meetings that he expects Burnes to be the team's Opening Day starter in 2024, but that's worth taking with a grain of salt since any other stance would only serve to undercut his bargaining power.
Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he could be a game-changing addition to a contender's rotation even as a one-year rental. The Brewers' asking price will no doubt reflect that, and he stands to bring back the biggest return from a collection of high-profile starting pitching trade targets that also includes Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow.
RHP Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
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Projections: 31 G, 10-11, 4.11 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 76 BB, 202 K, 178.0 IP, 2.7 WAR
Dylan Cease is the only starting pitcher on this list who is not a one-year rental, as he has club control through the 2025 season and a team-friendly $8.8 million projected salary for 2024 in his second year of arbitration.
The 27-year-old was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the 2022 season, going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 227 strikeouts in 184 innings to finish runner-up in AL Cy Young voting.
His 225 walks over the past three seasons lead all of baseball during that span, and he finished with a 4.18 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 177 innings in 2023, but his swing-and-miss stuff and remaining control still make him a valuable trade chip.
IF Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
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Projections: 141 G, 105 wRC+, .249/.331/.405, 49 XBH (15 HR), 68 RBI, 70 R, 2.0 WAR
The San Diego Padres front office made it clear they were looking to trim payroll when the offseason began, and they have done that by trading away Juan Soto, Trent Grisham and Scott Barlow while also watching Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha all reach free agency.
The team now has a glaring need in the outfield, and there are also multiple holes to plug in the starting rotation, so trading Jake Cronenworth is still a possibility if it addresses one of those areas of need.
Cronenworth was rumored to be available during the winter meetings, and with the ability to play all four infield spots, the two-time All-Star could be a fit for a wide variety of teams. The 29-year-old will be entering the first season of a seven-year, $80 million extension in 2024.
IF Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds
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Projection: 100 G, 106 wRC+, .257/.347/.425, 35 XBH (14 HR), 51 RBI, 55 R, 1.4 WAR
With Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte representing the future of the Cincinnati Reds infield, along with some combination of slugger Christian Encarnacion-Strand and free-agent signing Jeimer Candelario at first base and designated hitter, it's difficult to see how Jonathan India fits the team's long-term plans.
That would have seemed like a wild take just a few short years ago when he won 2021 NL Rookie of the Year honors, but the emergence of those other high-ceiling young infielders has left him as perhaps the most obvious trade candidate on the roster while Cincinnati continues to look for pitching upgrades.
With club control through 2026 and the ability to play both second base and third base defensively, he could be a cornerstone piece of another team's present and future infield, but for the Reds he looks expendable in the right deal.
DH/OF Eloy Jiménez, Chicago White Sox
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Projections: 141 G. 122 wRC+, .276/.334/.487, 57 XBH (29 HR), 90 RBI, 77 R, 2.2 WAR
Milwaukee Brewers top prospect Jackson Chourio recently signed an eight-year, $82 million extension, setting a new record for the largest deal in MLB history for a player who has yet to make his MLB debut.
Just a few short years ago, it was Eloy Jiménez who held that record after he signed a six-year, $43 million extension just before Opening Day in 2019, and he went on to post a 116 OPS+ with 31 home runs in 122 games that year. In the four years since that strong debut, he has topped 100 games played just once, battling a variety of injuries.
He has been productive when healthy, posting a 118 OPS+ in 1,777 career plate appearances while averaging 33 home runs and 102 RBI per 162 games. The 27-year-old is now entering the final guaranteed year of his contract with a $13.8 million salary in 2024, and the White Sox have made it clear they are listening to offers for everyone on the roster.
2B Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins
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Projections: 141 G, 110 wRC+, 250/.332/.423, 50 XBH (21 HR), 76 RBI, 74 R, 2.5 WAR
Second baseman Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler have been frequently mentioned as potential trade candidates for the Minnesota Twins, and even after both players had their 2024 club options exercised, it's still possible they could be dealt this winter.
The Twins don't have an obvious replacement for Kepler in the outfield, but they do have a crowded infield following the emergence of rookies Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien.
Polanco is one of the best offensive second basemen in the game, and with a reasonable $10.5 million salary for the 2024 season and a $12 million club option for next year that includes a $750,000 buyout, he could be a nice fallback target for teams that miss out on the few impact bats available in free agency.
OF Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles
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Projections: 151 G, 115 wRC+, .251/.320/.458, 62 XBH (29 HR), 93 RBI, 82 R, 2.1 WAR
One of the bigger Rule 5 success stories in recent years, slugger Anthony Santander posted a 121 OPS+ with 28 home runs and a team-leading 95 RBI for a Baltimore Orioles team that won 101 games in 2023.
The 29-year-old is entering his final year of club control and he is projected to earn $12.7 million, which would put him behind only recent free-agent signing Craig Kimbrel and his $13 million salary as the highest-paid player on the team.
The Orioles have Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Sam Hilliard, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers all in the mix for playing time in the outfield, so the Orioles could be open to flipping Santander and his salary if the right deal presents itself.
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