What the 12-Team College Football Playoff Would Look Like in 2023
If only…
Given the drama and controversy that engulfed the final College Football Playoff Rankings on Sunday, one can't help but dream just how perfecty a 12-team playoff would have aligned with this particular year.
To be clear, we got close.
If not for conference realignment, conference commissioner insecurity and a general lack of awareness, a robust bracket would have been our current reality.
It was not to be, and we must now wait one more season for this format.
The complete details of the 12-team playoff have yet to be fully finalized, although we know enough at this point. And with the information we know, the future is tremendously bright.
But what would the postseason have looked like this season? To complete this exercise, we're using the College Football Playoff selection committee's final Top 25.
Let's dive in.
The 12-Team Format, Explained
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Why expand to eight teams when you can expand to 12?
The answer, of course, starts at the core of all good expansion ideas: money.
An increase in the number of teams will increase the number of overall games, which is good for everyone. But the nature in which those teams qualify will alter quite a bit.
At the moment, the six highest-ranked conference champions, according to the final College Football Playoff Rankings, will automatically secure a spot. Given how much realignment has shifted this discussion—more specifically, the fact that the Pac-12 will no longer exist next year—the number of conferences this applies to could change.
The remaining six teams will be the highest ranked at-large teams in the rankings, which is precisely how the playoff works right now.
From there, the four conference champions ranked highest will earn a first-round bye. The next four highest-ranked teams will have the opportunity to host a playoff game at their home stadium.
Of all the changes coming to the format, this is perhaps the most exciting.
Once the first round is complete, the bracket will play out just as it does now through bowl games at neutral sites.
Then, eventually, a champion will be crowned.
Teams With First-Round Byes
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This one is pretty simple, even if the decision to reach these four teams was anything but this year.
The four teams that would have earned byes in a 12-team format are the same teams that comprise the four-team playoff we were just dealt.
No. 1 Michigan, No. 2 Washington, No. 3 Texas, and No. 4 Alabama all would have received first-round byes because they won their conference championship games. There's plenty of gravity still in these results, although this is how the selection committee ordered them.
With that acknowledged, not every season will ultimately award a team inside the top four a bye. Last season, Ohio State made the playoff despite not winning its conference. In that instance, the Buckeyes would have hosted a first-round game instead.
But not this year. The top four all won their conferences. As such, they get a week off.
No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State
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We begin with a rematch from earlier in the year, which is something that will likely become the norm in the future.
In the middle of the season, Penn State lost to Ohio State at home 20-12. The Nittany Lions' defense played well, although the offense couldn't muster up much of anything.
Would the result be different this time around?
Maybe?
The power of this format—specifically a home game in Columbus, Ohio—comes into focus almost immediately. While OSU wouldn't earn a bye, this would be a powerful advantage.
The winner of this game would take on No. 2 Washington.
As an aside, bring on Ohio State-Washington. What a matchup.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Georgia
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Speaking of rematches, enter Ole Miss-Georgia.
The Bulldogs' 29-game winning streak is no more, and they tumbled out of the top four as a result. In a 12-team playoff, the season wouldn't be over. In fact, this team would still be very much alive to win a title.
As for this game, there is plenty of history between the SEC foes. The game between these two teams earlier in the season was, well, lopsided.
This playoff will produce some of those games, too.
Georgia beat Ole Miss 52-17 at home, and it's hard to envision the outcome changing. (Hopefully the score would be a little tighter.)
Regardless, the winner would take on No. 3 Texas. Either way, we win in the next round.
No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Florida State
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Florida State fans, this is probably not the piece of content you want to read. We get it.
The emotions of being left out are still fresh, and they should be. Although given the exercise, the show must go on.
The Seminoles would host Liberty in the first round, which feels like a very winnable game regardless of who is at quarterback.
As an aside, the Flames would get playoff access for winning Conference USA. While it was nearly impossible for Group of Five teams to make the bracket in the four-team format, that will change moving forward.
Teams like Liberty will be rewarded for having a special season. What happens from there, of course, will be determined in the future.
The winner of this game will draw Alabama, which is strangely fitting. Even with injuries at quarterback, it's a matchup Florida State fans would gladly welcome right now.
No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon
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In terms of points and pure fun, this is the one.
Both Missouri and Oregon were guided by superb college quarterbacks with excellent supporting casts. Having both of these casts square off in a first-round elimination game would be a delight; it's also a showcase of the 12-team playoff's depth.
Oregon, of course, was unable to shake its Washington problem this season. Outside of that, the Ducks looked like one of the more potent teams across the sport.
Missouri, meanwhile, would have access to the postseason. It would be a paramount moment for the program, regardless of what happens in this game.
Oh, and the winner would play Michigan. Bring it.
The Snubs
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Just because the playoff is expanding, it doesn't mean there won't be controversy.
In fact, with more spots to fill and resumes likely to get spottier even further down the rankings, the cries for playoff access are likely to grow louder.
In this scenario, the first team outside the playoff mix would have been No. 12 Oklahoma followed by No. 13 LSU, No. 14 Arizona and No. 15 Louisville.
While the bubble will create drama come decision day, it will also create plenty of opportunities for programs unaccustomed to making college football's postseason.
There will be jubilation. There will be anger. There will be questionable inclusions and omissions.
Sound familiar?
What Happens Next?
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The first round is merely the start, and the flow of a 12-team format, when it is ultimately finalized, will be decided in time.
Will there be more upsets? Will home field advantage be as significant as many believe it will be? Will byes help teams or will there be rust for teams that haven't played as frequently as others?
There are more questions than answers at the moment, although one certainty remains. A new postseason is coming, and it is welcomed with open arms.
The only issue is that it didn't come a year sooner.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
