Buy or Sell Latest Offseason MLB Trade and Free Agency Rumors Before Winter Meetings
Though both have been relatively quiet so far, there's a good chance that Major League Baseball's trade and free-agent markets will get loud starting with the Winter Meetings next week.
In the meantime, what is one to make of the latest rumors?
As per usual, this is where it's useful to play the ol' "Buy or Sell?" game. The idea is not to assess whether the rumors themselves are legit, but rather the likelihood of what's being said will come to fruition.
We have nine topics to get into, starting with six concerning trades and ending with three concerning free agency.
Could the White Sox Trade Eloy Jiménez?
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Source: Bruce Levine of 670 The Score
The Chicago White Sox are open for business, and it's easy to imagine them moving ace right-hander Dylan Cease. But is Eloy Jiménez also likely to be traded?
I wasn't so sure a week ago, but White Sox general manager Chris Getz has admitted that teams are interested in Jiménez, and Levine isn't the only one who expects the slugger to soon be an ex-White Sox. ESPN's Jesse Rogers said during an MLB Network segment last Tuesday that he'd "almost bet money" that both Cease and Jiménez will be dealt.
Good reasons remain for why Chicago could be better off waiting to trade Jiménez. He didn't exactly boost his trade value in 2023, as he was healthy enough to play in 120 games but only managed a .758 OPS and 18 home runs.
Yet given how few impact hitters are available in free agency, Jiménez's Silver Slugger credentials and sheer upside might have an inflating effect on his value anyway. And with a 101-loss season in their wake and a middling farm system underneath them, it would be hard for the White Sox to say no if a team offered a healthy supply of prospects.
In other words, the White Sox may not have to wait until next summer to sell high on Jiménez.
Verdict: Buy
Could the Guardians Trade Shane Bieber?
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Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com
Elsewhere in the American League Central, what are the chances that Shane Bieber will likewise soon be an ex-Guardian?
Morosi reported on MLB Network last Tuesday that "several teams have been showing interest" in the right-hander. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball between 2019 and 2022, posting a 2.91 ERA and capturing the AL Cy Young Award in 2020.
Yet Bieber is coming off a rough year in his own right. Elbow inflammation limited the 28-year-old to 21 starts, and he pitched to a good-not-great 3.80 ERA, notably in tandem with the worst strikeout rate of his career.
Prior to Morosi's report, Jason Lloyd of The Athletic had written that he was "getting the impression Bieber will still be on the Guardians' roster" on Opening Day of the 2024 season. Not exactly a promise, but it's nothing if not a realistic instinct.
Whereas Jiménez is an island of upside in a sea bereft of impact bats, Bieber is but one yacht in a sea of yachts. The Guardians could have trouble getting a good return for him while teams' other pitching options include Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell in free agency and Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow on the trade market.
Verdict: Sell
Is Tyler Glasnow the Ace Most Likely to Get Traded?
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Source: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic
Speaking of Glasnow, Rosenthal posited on "Foul Territory" that the Tampa Bay Rays righty is "the most likely" out of that previously mentioned group of aces to actually get traded.
For his part, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears that a trade of Glasnow will "definitely" happen:
With a projected payroll of $126 million for 2024, the Rays are set to blow away their club-record $83.9 million payroll from 2022. President of baseball operations Erik Neander did say in October that the Rays "have the ability" to raise payroll, but there's a difference between merely raising payroll and raising it by that much.
Of course, there is a complicating factor in all this. If the Rays trade Tyler Glasnow, a starting rotation that lost Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to elbow injuries in 2023 would be left even thinner.
There's no reason that a trade of Glasnow couldn't bring back a pitcher to take his place, though. Or maybe even more than one, given that he has some of the best stuff in baseball and that he's fresh off logging a career-high 120.0 innings in 2023.
Verdict: Buy
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Is Bo Bichette a Trade Target for the Cubs?
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Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com
Sticking in the American League East, what if the Rays aren't the only team there within that's willing to unload a core star?
Morosi specifically highlighted Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette as a trade fit for the Chicago Cubs, remarking that he could fill their void at third base and that a deal makes sense because the Cubs have a "tremendous depth of prospects from which to trade."
It's an interesting idea...but also one that doesn't hold up under scrutiny.
The Blue Jays are looking to add hitters, not subtract them. And Bichette was their best for much of 2023, peaking with a .321 average and an .847 OPS on July 31 before patellar tendinitis hindered him in the last two months.
For another thing, the Blue Jays have already bought out the 25-year-old's arbitration years at club-friendly rates. For yet another, they're in the thick of a contention cycle that's yielded three playoff berths in four years. Never mind just this star; they shouldn't be in the business of trading any stars for prospects right now.
Verdict: Sell
Could a Juan Soto Trade Be Imminent?
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Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com
And now to the National League West, where Morosi believes the San Diego Padres could trade Juan Soto sooner rather than later.
"I do believe the market for Soto is robust," Morosi said. "And there are enough teams out there to where I think a trade is not only possible. It's possible before the Winter Meetings are over."
It's notable that Morosi's reporting treats a potential trade of the 25-year-old left fielder as more of a "when" situation than an "if" situation, but that also isn't very surprising. Soto's agent, Scott Boras, has said that San Diego's plans for 2024 involve Soto for what will be his walk year, but pretty much everyone expects him to move anyway.
As one rival general manager told ESPN's Alden Gonzalez: "I don't think they have much of a choice, honestly."
If so, the Padres should indeed have a sense of urgency about trading the three-time All-Star. Unless they back off plans to lop about $50 million off their payroll, it's the best way for them to clear dollars for the arms they badly need in both their rotation and in their bullpen.
Verdict: Buy
Could Juan Soto End Up with the Yankees?
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Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com and Jon Heyman of the New York Post
As to which team is the best bet to land Soto, one possibility has come up over and over and over again: the New York Yankees
Though both also remarked on Cody Bellinger as a fit—albeit with a dash of contact quality-related skepticism on Heyman's part—Morosi and Heyman both zeroed in on the Bronx Bombers as a suitor for the young slugger.
"I have to believe, with the surprising dearth of left-handed power that they had this year, the Yankees are going to be all over Soto in the same way that they are all over Cody Bellinger," Morosi said.
It's true that the Yankees lacked left-handed power in 2023, as their 55 home runs from that side ranked 28th out of 30 teams. While he's mainly an OBP guy, Soto would definitely help solve this problem. He's fresh off setting a career high with 35 home runs.
Whether the Yankees are a good trading partner for the Padres is less clear-cut, but they do have five prospects in MLB.com's top 100: outfielders Jasson Domínguez, Spencer Jones and Everson Pereira and right-handers Chase Hampton and Drew Thorpe. Some combination of those guys could be put into a package worthy of Soto.
Verdict: Buy
Could Josh Hader Sign with One of These 3 Teams?
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Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com
As to other Padres-related matters, Morosi said during that same segment on MLB Network that he doesn't expect them to re-sign Josh Hader.
Instead, he highlighted three teams as favorites for the five-time All-Star closer: the Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies and, in somewhat of a surprise, the Chicago Cubs.
The latter is another interesting yet dubious proposal. The Cubs' bullpen isn't necessarily a strength, but it's not weak at the closer's spot. Adbert Alzolay handled the job just fine in the latter half of 2023, posting a 2.93 ERA with 18 saves in 20 tries after July 5.
The Rangers and Phillies, on the other hand, have arguably been the best fits for the 29-year-old Hader all along.
Though José Leclerc emerged as a godsend in October, the Rangers' bullpen was never not a relative weakness this year. The Phillies got solid work out of Craig Kimbrel right up until they didn't at the worst possible time. Seeing as neither club is shy about spending in free agency, one can easily imagine them getting in a bidding war over Hader.
Verdict: Buy
Could Shohei Ohtani Sign with 1 of These 2 Dark Horses?
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Source: Jon Morosi of MLB.com
If it feels like actual information about Shohei Ohtani's free agency has been nonexistent, that's by design. Per ESPN's Jeff Passan, the two-time MVP will hold it against any team if it's made public that he paid it a visit.
It's nonetheless hard not to talk about where Ohtani might sign, and Morosi raised two intriguing possibilities as dark horses for the two-way star: Toronto and Atlanta.
Morosi even wrote that the Blue Jays "are serious about pursuing Ohtani," which tracks with a previous report from The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal that they're a "sleeper" in the race.
As for Atlanta, Morosi says that they "appeal to Ohtani from a competitive perspective." As well they should, given that they're six-time defending National League East champs who are fresh off tying the single-season record for home runs. The idea of that lineup getting another hitter with 40-homer potential is mind-boggling.
But is there enough money in Toronto or Atlanta for Ohtani? Both clubs (see here and here) are already projected to open 2024 in the same payroll neighborhoods in which they resided this year. So barring massive cuts of some kind, signing Ohtani would require either team to go way beyond their spending comfort zones.
Verdict: Sell
Could the Dodgers Land Both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
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Source: Jon Heyman of the New York Post
Dark-horse possibilities are all well and good, but it remains hard to have any conversation about Ohtani that doesn't revolve around the Los Angeles Dodgers in some way.
Along with the Cubs and San Francisco Giants, Heyman wrote that the Dodgers are one of three teams who are believed to be "going big" for Ohtani. More fascinating, though, is what he said on MLB Network about the Dodgers potentially signing Ohtani and the second-best free agent on the market: Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
"The Dodgers love Yamamoto. They are the one team really thinking, 'Maybe we can sign both Yamamoto and Ohtani,'" Heyman said.
That the Dodgers need both players is not in dispute. J.D. Martinez's free agency has left a hole at designated hitter, and a starting rotation that ranked 23rd in rWAR this year needs upside for both now and later.
The catch should be that signing both Ohtani and Yamamoto could cost as much as $80 million in combined annual salaries, but not in this case. With a $94 million gap between what they spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2024, the Dodgers should have that kind of budget.
Verdict: Buy
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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