World Cup Group of Death 2026 Odds, Predictions and Stars to Watch

The dreaded Group of Death is more difficult to find at the 2026 FIFA World Cup because of the expanded field.

Most of the 12 groups have a clear favorite, two teams with knockout-round potential and a clear bottom feeder.

The closest thing to a Group of Death is Group I, which features France, Norway, Senegal and Iraq.

France is the favorite to win Group I, but it will face challenges from African Cup of Nations finalist Senegal, the Erling Haaland-led Norway and one of the tougher Asian sides in Iraq.

Group I possesses three of the best goal-scorers in the world in Haaland, Kylian Mbappe and Sadio Mane. That alone is worth watching all six Group I contests.

Group I Odds

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Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

France (-210; bet $210 to win $100)

Norway (+280; bet $100 to win $280)

Senegal (+750)

Iraq (+8000)

Stars to Watch

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Kylian Mbappe

Kylian Mbappe enters the 2026 World Cup with 56 goals in 98 international appearances.

The Real Madrid superstar totaled eight goals at the 2022 World Cup. He scored a hat-trick in the championship game defeat to Argentina.

The 27-year-old is once again expected to be among the tournament's top scorers. He will try to become the first-ever repeat Golden Boot winner at the World Cup.

Michael Olise

Michael Olise is the only Frenchman capable of challenging, and even surpassing, Mbappe's goal total this summer.

The Bayern Munich winger turned in three straight double-digit scoring season at the club level and had 34 goal contributions in the Bundesliga this past season.

Olise has seven goals in 17 caps for France. He is in line to be one of the breakout stars of the tournament.

Erling Haaland

Erling Haaland is one of the most prolific scorers in the history of soccer.

The towering Norwegian just finished his sixth-straight season of 20 or more goals. He has 55 goals in 50 career appearances on the international stage.

The only thing that might hamper Haaland is his lack of World Cup experience. Norway is back at the World Cup for the first time since 1998. That might hurt Haaland in matchups with France and Senegal, but the counter to that is goal-scorers just find the back of the net no matter what.

Sadio Mane

Sadio Mane drifted out of focus a bit because of his move to the Saudi league to play for Al-Nassr.

The former Liverpool and Bayern Munich man kept on scoring in Saudi Arabia with three double-digit goal campaigns.

The 34-year-old is the player to watch for Senegal. He's got 55 goals in 127 appearances. If Senegal makes a deep run, Mane will be heavily involved.

Predictions

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Group I is still France's group to lose.

The 2022 World Cup runner-up is loaded in attack with Mbappe, Olise and a host of others ready to take advantage of the three defenses in Group I.

The overall quality of Les Bleus will be on display throughout group play. That should be the key to earning first place.

The games with Norway and Senegal won't be easy, but it's hard to see both of those defenses completely halting the French attack for 90 minutes. France has scored multiple goals in nine of its last 10 games dating back to September 5.

Senegal is the battle-tested tournament team that could bank on its experience to finish second.

Sure, Norway has Haaland, but the Norwegian squad is rather inexperienced when it comes to playing in a major tournament.

Senegal made the round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup, won the African Cup of Nations in 2021 and reached the AFCON final again in 2025.

Iraq isn't exactly a pushover of a fourth team in Group I. It won or tied 11 of its last 13 games on the international stage.

The big question is whether or not Iraq can hold up defensively. If it can, it has a shot to steal a point or two, but if not, it could have a severely high goal differential by the end of the group stage.

Prediction: 1. France, 2. Senegal, 3. Norway, 4. Iraq