MLB Season Preview: Where Will the Boston Red Sox Finish in 2012?

The Boston Red Sox are coming off a horrid end of the 2011 season where they went 7-20 in September with a payroll of around $190 million. It may seem too early for an MLB season preview of the Red Sox, but they are maybe one or two moves from being done this offseason.

The September collapse will likely never happen again for a long time with this Boston Red Sox team, especially not in 2012. Once they have a huge lead, sure, they will lose some ground if they are resting key guys in September to see how their farm system prospects are going to do in the majors. But with that being said, the Red Sox will once again be the top dog in the AL East. They will finish with 97 wins, and the New York Yankees will be have to be the Wild Card team.

The Yankees are getting the older and the Yankees starters behind CC Sabathia can not compare to the starting five if the Red Sox. They have Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova and AJ Burnett. Burnett has been awful in New York and Hughes has not been healthy enough to remain on the field enough to be effective. Nova is the No. 2 starter in my opinion.

The key guys such as Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter are hitting the end of the road in their careers and it will start to show in 2012. Jeter almost did not play well in 2011, but showed he still has the potential to be great, but he is at that age where it is hard to play everyday in the majors. Same thing with Alex Rodriguez who has been nagged with injuries lately.

This may seem crazy, but this is only if (and it is a big if) all the Red Sox starters can remain healthy. Josh Beckett can be dominant if he is 100 percent healthy. Jon Lester cannot miss a huge stretch of time during the key months of the regular season.

The absolute key to this starting rotation is the effectiveness of Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves in the final two spots of the rotation. Both these pitchers need to give solid outing more than 50 percent of the time and go more than five innings to save the bullpen from wear and tear.

Another factor is the health of the starting lineup. Kevin Youkilis is one guy on this roster who has been hurt a lot lately, and when he plays hurt, he cannot get the job done at the plate. Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford need to stay injury free for the Red Sox.

One other player who needs to stay healthy is MVP runner-up Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury was the catalyst for the Sox offense in 2011, and he can be almost the same guy in 2012, but he needs to play around the same number of games. Luckily, Adrian Beltre is not playing third base anymore for him to run into.

The bullpen is the final part of the Sox's 2012 season success. The back end of the Red Sox bullpen will be one of the best in 2012, with Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon getting the job done for the Sox. Other guys, such as Franklin Morales and Bobby Jenks, need to step it up in 2012, but that can happen if they are healthy and stay on the field.