MLB Rumors: Dodgers to Trade for Rays' Tyler Glasnow, Pending Contract Extension

The Los Angeles Dodgers are cooking this offseason.

The Tampa Bay Rays are trading starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan, in exchange for starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot and outfield prospect Jonny Deluca.

Per that report, "the deal is contingent on Glasnow signing a contract extension with Los Angeles, which the parties are hopeful will happen by Friday, sources familiar with the deal told ESPN." Glasnow is scheduled to make $25 million in 2024 before an extension would kick in.

Given the Rays' general payroll approach, many wondered whether they'd cash out now rather than risk losing him for a minimal return—a compensatory draft pick if he declined the qualifying offer.

Passan reported on Nov. 14 that the Rays were "widely expected to move" Glasnow. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic also broke down the situation:

"A potential free agent of Glasnow's quality normally brings back quality prospects at the deadline, and that's without the possibility of draft-pick compensation. The Rays, then, likely will drive a hard bargain, particularly because Glasnow's best days might be ahead of him. His elbow ligament first began failing in 2019. He avoided the injury list in the shortened 2020 season but will start next season almost three years removed from his surgery in '21."

Even leaving Tampa Bay's typically thrifty spending aside, there was some curiosity as to whether a team trading for Glasnow might balk at giving him a big, multiyear contract.

The 30-year-old is unquestionably a top-end starter when he's healthy, but that has consistently been a big qualifier. He has made 20-plus starts just once in his career and eclipsed 100 innings on two occasions.

Glasnow didn't make his 2023 debut until a May 27 start against the Dodgers because of an oblique strain. Back spasms briefly took him out of the rotation later in the season as well.

The right-hander was excellent when he did pitch. He went 10-7 with a 3.53 ERA and a 2.91 FIP over 120 innings, and his 162 strikeouts were a career high. His best outing came in a 3-1 win over the Boston Red Sox on Sept. 6, when he allowed one earned run on three hits and fanned 14 batters across six innings.

Glasnow is a clear high-risk, high-reward addition for the Dodgers.

Were he to navigate an entire season unscathed, he'd likely be a strong Cy Young candidate. Since his trade to the Rays midway through the 2018 season, he sported a 3.20 ERA and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings. From 2019 on, Glasnow is second among starters in FIP (2.89) and fifth in WHIP (1.01), per FanGraphs.

In an offseason that featured some notable free agents, this trade could be the most impactful move centered around a pitcher.

Of course, that hinges on Glasnow dodging the injury trouble that has dogged him for years, and that's far from a guarantee.

Shohei Ohtani will eventually feature on the mound for the Dodgers, but that's unlikely to happen in 2024 thanks to his elbow surgery in the fall. The team needs more immediate reinforcements to a rotation that saw Clayton Kershaw, Lance Lynn and Julio Urías hit free agency.

Glasnow serves as a very nice solution.