College Football Playoff Projections: Week 12 Rankings and Bowl Forecast
Save for Georgia jumping Ohio State for No. 1, the third College Football Playoff ranking of the 2023 season is more of the same. Bowl season is shifting dramatically, though.
In this update alone, both the ACC (Georgia Tech) and Big Ten (Northwestern) added one projected bowl qualifier. Additionally, the Big 12 swapped in Texas Tech for BYU as the Pac-12 lost Washington State and SEC dropped both Florida and Mississippi State.
Meanwhile, the Group of Five conferences have a pair of opposing outlooks. Both the AAC and MAC are struggling around the six-win cut line, but the Mountain West and Sun Belt are looking strong.
There are plenty of changes within this week's bowl predictions, which follow the latest CFP rankings.
Week 12 CFP Rankings
1 of 7
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Florida State
5. Washington
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Missouri
10. Louisville
11. Oregon State
12. Penn State
13. Ole Miss
14. Oklahoma
15. LSU
16. Iowa
17. Arizona
18. Tennessee
19. Notre Dame
20. North Carolina
21. Kansas State
22. Utah
23. Oklahoma State
24. Tulane
25. Kansas
Group of 5 Matchups
2 of 7
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 16): Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State
New Orleans (Dec. 16): Liberty vs. James Madison
Cure (Dec. 16): South Florida vs. Louisiana
New Mexico (Dec. 16): Bowling Green vs. Wyoming
Bahamas (Dec. 18): Appalachian State vs. Eastern Michigan
Frisco (Dec. 19): New Mexico State vs. Texas State
Boca Raton (Dec. 21): Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern
Birmingham (Dec. 23): Marshall vs. San Jose State
Camellia (Dec. 23): Colorado State vs. South Alabama
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Miami (OH) vs. Utah State
68 Ventures (Dec. 23): Central Michigan vs. Arkansas State
Hawai'i (Dec. 23): UTSA vs. Fresno State
Arizona (Dec. 30): Ohio vs. Boise State
Stock Up: San Jose State Spartans
One month ago, San Jose State held a 1-5 record. While the Spartans had played a tough schedule, remaining games against Fresno State and UNLV looked like a metaphorical death sentence for bowl eligibility. Hey, what do I know? San Jose State just steamrolled Fresno State 42-18 and needs only to beat 3-7 San Diego State to record a sixth win.
Stock Down: Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Michigan, conversely, looked like a bowl-bound team in mid-October. After a 4-3 start, however, losses to Northern Illinois and Western Michigan significantly altered that view. Toledo smacked EMU last weekend and now must defeat both 2-8 Akron and 3-7 Buffalo to make a bowl. Doable, but not an ideal position.
Group of 5 vs. Power 5
3 of 7
LA (Dec. 16): Air Force vs. UCLA
Independence (Dec. 16): Troy vs. UCF
Gasparilla (Dec. 22): Coastal Carolina vs. Northwestern
Armed Forces (Dec. 23): UNLV vs. Iowa State
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Toledo vs. Nebraska
Military (Dec. 27): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Fenway (Dec. 28): SMU vs. Syracuse
Stock Up: Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern (5-5) has alternated losses and wins all season. Knocking off Wisconsin (in Madison) was a huge positive for the Wildcats, who host 3-7 Purdue this weekend—a critical game, I would say—before traveling to 5-5 Illinois on Nov. 25.
Stock Down: UCLA Bruins
Heading into Week 11, UCLA's 6-3 record was understandable. All three setbacks happened on the road against a ranked opponent (Utah, Oregon State, Arizona). But a home loss to 2-7 Arizona State? Not great!
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Power 5 Matchups, Part I
4 of 7
Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Wisconsin vs. USC
First Responder (Dec. 26): Georgia Tech vs. Texas Tech
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Illinois vs. West Virginia
Mayo (Dec. 27): Duke vs. Tennessee
Holiday (Dec. 27): North Carolina State vs. Arizona
Texas (Dec. 27): Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe (Dec. 28): Miami vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts (Dec. 28): North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Alamo (Dec. 28): Oklahoma vs. Utah
Stock Up: Texas Tech Red Raiders
Although the season hasn't gone as planned for Texas Tech, consecutive wins against TCU and Kansas have the Red Raiders on the brink of bowl eligibility. Granted, that sixth win probably needs to happen on Saturday at home opposite UCF instead of a trip to Texas on Nov. 24.
Stock Down: USC Trojans
Will the Trojans snap a disastrous slide in the finale? UCLA would love to hand USC another loss as the Pac-12 portion of the rivalry ends. Since an exciting 6-0 start, USC has dropped four of the last five matchups with simply atrocious defense. Along the way, Arizona and Oregon State have presumably jumped past USC in the Pac-12 selection order.
Power 5 Matchups, Part II
5 of 7
Gator (Dec. 29): Clemson vs. Kentucky
Sun (Dec. 29): Boston College vs. Oregon State
Liberty (Dec. 29): Kansas vs. Minnesota
Music City (Dec. 30): Maryland vs. Auburn
ReliaQuest (Jan. 1): Notre Dame vs. LSU
Citrus (Jan. 1): Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Stock Up: Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa's offensive woes are well-documented, but a tenacious defense has propelled the Hawkeyes to 8-2. Meanwhile, no other team in the Big Ten West is better than 5-5. Throw in Maryland's recent slide, and Iowa is the most logical choice for a New Year's Day bowl—provided that Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State are each NY6-bound.
Stock Down: Kansas Jayhawks
Already down starter Jalon Daniels, the Jayhawks watched Jason Bean exit with a head injury in a loss to Texas Tech. Kansas has probably fallen back behind Kansas State in the Big 12 pecking order, though that can quickly change once again. Kansas hosts the rivalry clash this weekend.
Non-CFP New Year's Six Games
6 of 7
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29): Texas vs. Missouri
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30): Alabama vs. Tulane
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Louisville vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Penn State vs. Oregon
Stock Up: Missouri Tigers
While it's not a certainty, No. 10 Missouri has positioned itself quite well to make an NY6 game. As the Tigers cruised past Tennessee, Georgia handed Ole Miss a second loss. Now, it's a matter of avoiding a late upset and finishing in the Top 11 of the final CFP poll.
Stock Down: Penn State Nittany Lions
Following an ugly loss to Michigan, Penn State fired offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. He feels more like a sacrificial lamb for a deeper issue, but the Nittany Lions continue to stumble opposite top competition in James Franklin's very-good-but-not-great tenure. Penn State can still land an NY6 bid with victories over Rutgers and Michigan State but needs a little help to rejoin the Top 11.
College Football Playoff
7 of 7
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Michigan (2) vs. Washington (3)
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Georgia (1) vs. Florida State (4)
National Championship (Jan. 8): Georgia vs. Michigan
Another week of zero changes in this section, although it's evident that Oregon is charging hard after Washington. At this point, a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship Game feels inevitable.
Georgia is facing a similar situation with one-loss Alabama now officially waiting in the SEC Championship Game. Both programs sealed their familiar spots in Atlanta with blowout victories over Ole Miss and Kentucky, respectively, last weekend.
The season-ending showdown between Michigan and Ohio State still looms as the decisive moment in the Big Ten.
Florida State, meanwhile, takes on North Alabama and Florida before, in all likelihood, taking on Louisville for the ACC crown.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
