Grading Top NHL Rookies 1 Month Into 2023-24 Season
We're a month into the NHL season, and it's already been an incredible year for rookies.
Not only have we seen the top three picks from the 2023 NHL draft jump straight into action, but we've also seen them all show great examples of why they were selected.
But it's not just the 18-year-olds who have impressed us. There are many other first-year players who have seized the day.
We're going to check out a selection of players who have piled up points or stymied some of the best scorers in the NHL and play the role of your favorite TV show teacher and hand out some grades. We'll use the class A through F scale and use regular and advanced stats to come up with the most appropriate letter grades to dish out.
Let us know what you think of our grading skills and if you didn't like it, file your complaints in the comments.
Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks
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Whether you like it or not, Connor Bedard is the favorite for the Calder Trophy. It's all part of being the No. 1 pick and the heir to the throne as the Next Big Star in the NHL. But the truth is, Bedard is taking on a lot as an 18-year-old on a pretty bad team.
He has seven points in his first 11 games, with five goals. Not bad considering the leading rookie scorers around the NHL have eight points. He is playing the most minutes among rookie forwards in the NHL at 19:27 per game, and even though his five-on-five advanced stats aren't eye-popping, they are among the best numbers on Chicago.
We get it—this sounds like we're trying to dress things up and make Bedard sound and read better than what his stats look like. But when you consider how Chicago has played this year (a little above its heads but still not great at 4-7), asking Bedard to carry this bunch on his back while piling up tons of points right away is a really tall task. That's especially true when opposing teams are hounding him like mad knowing he's their main guy.
Bedard is great. Put him down now while you can because it won't be long before he's making everyone around the league recognize his greatness.
Grade: A-
Logan Cooley, Arizona Coyotes
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The biggest thing we've learned about Logan Cooley this season is that he's fun to watch.
He's speedy, he's skilled, he flies up and down the ice and he's an instant-offense generator for the Arizona Coyotes. It's a treat to see him work with his new teammates and how they adjust to having such a highly skilled player on the ice with them. Those types of players have been rare in the desert, and outside of Clayton Keller, it's been a long time since there's been a player of Cooley's ilk there.
Cooley is tied with three others among leading rookie scorers with eight points (one goal, seven assists). That's great output for a player who a year ago was a freshman at the University of Minnesota. The No. 3 pick from 2022 is showing that, yes, he's worth the hype, but since we're handing out grades, we have to have some tough talk, too.
Six of Cooley's eight points this season have come on the power play. Power-play points count the same as five-on-five points, but for Cooley to be among the best of the best, he's got to get goals and assists at even strength as well.
Part of what's hurt that battle are the team's shot numbers when he's on the ice. The Coyotes are giving up more shot attempts with Cooley out there than they're generating; however, what the team generates with him out there is high-quality (50.8 percent expected goals for).
Get points whenever you can get them, but for Cooley to take the next step, the offense (and defense) has to get stronger at five-on-five. It'll come with time.
Grade: B+
Adam Fantilli, Columbus Blue Jackets
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Adam Fantilli was the No. 3 pick in the 2023 draft, and all he has done is immediately win his way onto the Columbus Blue Jackets roster and become a steady, impactful player.
Fantilli has six points in 12 games, including two goals. While he's got a goal and an assist on the power play, he's been able to contribute the rest of the time while averaging nearly 16 minutes of ice time per game as the team's No. 2 center.
Playing center right away as an 18-year-old in the NHL is really difficult. Doing so in the top six of the lineup is even harder because no matter what, they have to line up against the best defenders the opponents have to throw at them for large chunks of the game.
For Fantilli, he's doing that while playing for a Columbus team that's young and not deep on talent. His advanced numbers highlight some of those struggles, particularly in how he ranks out on his own team.
But he's been able to help generate offense despite the advanced stats, and for a player his age to have success to draw on while learning the ins and outs of the game at this level, that's important.
Grade: B-
Leo Carlsson, Anaheim Ducks
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The Anaheim Ducks are flying out of the gate to start the season, and they've got a flock of young players leading the way. Even though Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras are the big names in Orange County, it's 2023 No. 2 pick Leo Carlsson who's going to bring it all together up the middle.
Carlsson's arrival in the Anaheim lineup has helped spark the Ducks to a surprise 7-5-0 start with three goals and an assist in eight games (he missed the first four with an injury). He's playing more than 18 minutes per game and is among the team's minutes leaders at forward along with Terry, Zegras and Frank Vatrano.
While those players are all picking up more goals and assists than Carlsson, perhaps the lack of scoring comes from Carlsson's advanced numbers being a bit behind the rest of his team. Keep in mind, the Ducks don't have strong numbers regarding shot-attempt percentage or expected goal percentage, but Carlsson's are down even compared to his teammates—which is also weird because his two most common teammates are Zegras and Terry.
The Ducks are playing well, and having seen some of Carlsson's play, I like where he's headed. He plays cool and smart and if he's sticking with Terry and Zegras, the points (and better advanced stats) will come.
Grade: B
Luke Hughes, New Jersey Devils
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It's funny looking back on Luke Hughes' draft year, 2021. I recall people telling me that his offensive game was off the charts, but it would be hard for him to handle the defensive game in the NHL. So far, it's looking a lot like his offensive ability might be good enough that the defensive shortcomings won't matter.
Hughes is second among rookie defensemen in scoring with seven points (one goal, six assists), with five of his points (one goal, four assists) coming on the power play. The Devils score a ton of goals thanks to Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt and Tyler Toffoli. Their defense is led by Dougie Hamilton, John Marino and Luke Hughes, but it's Hughes who acts as a specialized weapon with his ability to move the puck and pass exceptionally well.
When you take his raw stats into account, he's having a great start to the year, but his advanced numbers show he's not just feasting on the power play. He's helping the Devils win the shot battle and helping create more quality opportunities for them than are occurring against him. He's an electric player, and he's helping make the Devils one of the most dangerous teams in the league.
Grade: A-
Matthew Knies, Toronto Maple Leafs
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When Matthew Knies signed out of Minnesota last season and walked onto the Toronto Maple Leafs roster in time for the playoffs, it was impressive that he became an immediate-impact player on such a loaded team. Now that he's in his first full NHL season, he's showing there's more to come.
Knies has seven points (three goals, four assists) in 12 games, which puts him near the top of the list for rookie scorers. He's a classic straight-line kind of player who does everything fundamentally well, and he's got some scoring touch.
That style of play earned him a shot on a line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on Monday, and the results were stellar. Knies had a goal and two assists with the two Leafs superstar forwards and helped them come back to beat the Lightning in overtime.
One game isn't a whole month, but Knies' workload before earning that promotion was good enough to land him there. It can be easier to play with great players, but it can sometimes lead younger players to get lost in the rough and slide down the lineup. For Knies to climb into that spot is a big thing.
The raw stats are there, and if Knies continues to do all the little things correctly, the Leafs will be much better for it.
Grade: B+
Matthew Poitras, Boston Bruins
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No one thought Matthew Poitras was going to be in the Boston Bruins lineup this season. Most people thought he would be digging in with the Guelph Storm for another year and maybe finding a way to the NHL next season. Instead, he's a vital center on, arguably, the best team in the league. No biggie, right?
In 12 games, Poitras has four goals and three assists and is among the top rookie scorers. He's been locked into a role in the middle six of the Bruins lineup, and while David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand lead the way, Poitras has become a major part of the support behind those star players to give Boston a multilayered attack.
What's more impressive about Poitras' game is he's proved to be a steady player defensively as well. He has strong expected goal percentage numbers so far—which he should on a Bruins team playing like this—but it's good to see with him because the shot-attempt numbers are a little behind his teammates.
Maybe it's because the expectations for a second-round pick from 2022 aren't the same as those of a first-round pick from any year, but Poitras doing what he's doing on this Bruins team speaks volumes to his ability.
Grade: A-
Pavel Mintyukov, Anaheim Ducks
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It's easy to forget about the Anaheim Ducks. They were the worst team in the NHL last season and haven't been in the playoffs since 2018. But a big reason to pay attention to them now is they've got a 19-year-old run-and-gun defenseman racking up points.
Pavel Mintyukov is among the top rookie scorers in the NHL with eight points (a goal and seven assists), and just one point has come on the power play. Mintyukov is also the Ducks' leading scorer on defense and his ability to lead rushes and make precise passes has helped unlock an offense that was virtually dormant all last season.
Mintyukov's youth would normally mean his minutes would be managed closely and he would be eased into what Anaheim is doing. But coach Greg Cronin has entrusted him with key roles and big minutes, playing him more than an average of 19 per game.
It might seem like Mintyukov has come out of nowhere, but he was the Ducks' first-round pick in 2022 at 10th overall. After he put up 88 points in the OHL last season split between two teams, he's showing early on that his offensive ability wasn't just a junior hockey specialty.
Grade: A-
Devon Levi, Buffalo Sabres
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The hype and pressure on Devon Levi in Buffalo is real. He showed last season after he signed out of Northeastern that he was ready for the pressure and stress that comes with being a goalie in the NHL. This season, he's getting the first-hand experience of what it means to have an NHL workload.
Levi started each of the Sabres' first four games before he sustained a lower-body injury that kept him out of action until a week ago. Upon returning, he helped lead them to a 6-4 win in Toronto.
Sure, allowing four goals might seem tough, but Auston Matthews had three of them, and the Leafs star is making every goalie look average these days. At 2-3-0 with an .885 save percentage, it's been a learning experience in a lot of ways for Levi.
The highs in his game are sky-high because of his athleticism and how he reads plays. The lows come from a mix of a lack of pro experience and his teammates sometimes playing a little loose and free on defense. The injury kind of stunts the ability to give a proper grade, but from what we've seen, we know there's a lot more to come, but it'll be good once he gains more consistency.
Grade: C
Marco Rossi, Minnesota Wild
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The long-awaited arrival of Marco Rossi to the NHL has been well worth it.
Rossi is part of a dangerous offense in Minnesota, and he's exploded on the scene and is third on the team in goals with five, behind Joel Eriksson Ek and Ryan Hartman, who each have seven. With seven points, Rossi is among the top rookie scorers in the league as well.
What he is part of with the Wild is exciting. His teaming up with Matthew Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov helps give them a line with firepower to bring everyone out of their seats when they're rolling.
Rossi has also been a strong possession player and shot-attempt generator when he's on the ice and has the fourth-best shot attempt percentage on the team at five-on-five. If he can continue to help drive those numbers up while playing with Kaprizov and Boldy, the Wild are going to be even more dangerous offensively.
He's an easy player to cheer for, particularly after he dealt with COVID-19 and myocarditis, and seeing him have continued success would be fun for the rest of the league.
Grade: B+
Bobby Brink, Philadelphia Flyers
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While the Philadelphia Flyers have had some surprising early success (never mind that loss to San Jose...), a key reason for that has been rookie forward Bobby Brink.
Brink is one of the Flyers' top scorers, and his eight points (five goals, three assists) have given Philadelphia a surprise source of offense early on. He was a second-round pick in 2019 (34th overall), and after a few seasons at the University of Denver, joined the Flyers in April.
While Brink piled up points with the Pioneers, his immediate transition to the NHL and early success this season showed they very well may have struck gold. He's shown early on that he's a solid possession player and helps drive shot attempts and helps the Flyers earn the majority of quality scoring chances when he's on the ice.
Much of the Flyers' positivity this season has come from having Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson back from injury, but the play of Brink has helped give them more depth up front and can help them get better matchups in games. If Brink can stay steady with his offense, it'll be a huge help for the Flyers' ability to shorten their rebuild.
Grade: B+
Ridly Greig, Ottawa Senators
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Even though a lot of what's going on in Ottawa is shrouded in negativity right now, the emergence of Ridly Greig as a key offensive producer has been a pleasant development.
In nine games, Greig has seven points (two goals, five assists), and six of those points have come at even strength. Greig has given Ottawa further scoring depth to go along with Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko. Greig's arrival also helped soften the blow of trading Alex DeBrincat to Detroit.
Of course, Ottawa being Ottawa means it's not all happiness. Greig has been out with a lower-body injury since Nov. 2 and may be out for another week or so. It's a tough blow, albeit a hopefully shortened one, for a team that's really fighting it. But the Sens' hard times lining up with Greig's absence isn't a total coincidence.
Greig has been one of their better players as measured by the advanced numbers, and with the added scoring depth he provides them when healthy, it's a key reason to buy into the Senators being in the playoff picture later on this season.
Grade: B+
Joseph Woll, Toronto Maple Leafs
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One of the hardest jobs in the NHL is being a goaltender, and perhaps more succinctly, it's being the goaltender of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Right now, rookie Joseph Woll is helping make it look a little bit easier.
In seven games with Toronto this season (five starts), Woll is 4-3-0 with a .930 save percentage. He was put in the spotlight during the playoffs last season when he started twice for the Leafs and played in four total games, going 1-2 with a .915 save percentage. Not bad for a guy who was a third-round pick in 2016.
Goaltending has been such a major issue for the Maple Leafs since they became a perennial Stanley Cup contender. Where past goalies have struggled, Woll has shown the kind of calmness and easy-going nature the position demands even in the quietest media markets. That Woll is as relaxed as he is in Toronto yet is still competing fiercely should give Leafs fans some sense of relief.
Even though Woll is splitting the starter's net with Ilya Samsonov right now, it's the rookie whose numbers stand out and have him ranked in the top-10 in the NHL in save percentage. Moneypuck.com also has him third in the NHL in goals saved above expected.
Grade: A
Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted.
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