Predicting Where Top-Tier CFB Decommitments Will Land
There are currently 453 prospects in the 2024 recruiting class who are ranked as a 4-star prospect or higher in the 247Sports composite rankings. Out of that robust number, a mere 11 recruits remain uncommitted who were once pledged to another school.
With much of the "hay in the barn" in the way of commitments as we close in on December's early signing period, some of the biggest battles left to be waged are coming in the living rooms of those 11 who want to make sure they're making the right decision the second time around.
Which colleges are going to have what they're looking for?
From a stable of pass-catchers to talented defensive backs to front-seven forces, former decommits from across the country are looking for their future homes. There's even a quarterback in the bunch.
Several were committed to SEC teams and are still considering teams from the same conference. Others out west are up-in-the-air with all the conference uncertainty, and there are coaching changes and on-field struggles weighing heavily on others' minds, too.
In the end, some teams are going to convince these former decommits they were the right choice all along.
Here are some predictions on where those guys will play their college ball.
J'Marion Burnette, Running Back
1 of 11
It's hard to fault a youngster for having second thoughts, especially when it comes to a decision as big as where the next four or five years of their life will be spent. While the transfer portal makes things easier for do-overs, it's still a big decision.
So, while 4-star running back J'Marion Burnette, a 6'1", 220-pound, big-bodied offensive playmaker from Andalusia, Alabama, backed off his commitment to Auburn late last week, he has an official visit scheduled to the Plains for later this month.
Whether that happens or not is in limbo right now. "As wonderful as Auburn is, it's just not the place for me at this time," Burnette told Hayes Fawcett of On3.
Again, though, this decision is very much new, so a list of clear-cut suitors is still crystalizing. Top-tier SEC programs such as Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Arkansas all have offered. Others like Florida State and Texas are in the mix, too.
No favorites have emerged yet, but it's hard to envision a scenario in which if coach Nick Saban's Crimson Tide got heavily in the mix again, Burnette wouldn't at least consider them. If Daniel Hill commits to Alabama, though, will it have room?
There are just too many moving parts right now.
The Seminoles have a lot of juice on the trail, too, and are not that far from his Andalusia home. Tennessee also wants to sign another runner in this year's class.
For now, with no favorites known and Burnette really starting the process over, we'll roll with the tried and true.
Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide
Braylon Burnside, Wide Receiver
2 of 11
It's been a difficult year for Mississippi State following the death of coach Mike Leach in December 2022.
The Bulldogs hired defensive coordinator Zach Arnett to take over the program, but the season hasn't gone as hoped.
Now, with uncertainty surrounding the head coach's job and the Bulldogs looking for wins on the field, it was a major blow when Braylon Burnside decommitted from his hometown team on Monday.
The 6'0", 185-pound pass-catcher is a difference-maker, and Mississippi State doesn't have enough of them on its roster. He is such a dynamic prospect, some teams are recruiting him to play safety.
Look for this one to be a national battle with a lot of heavy hitters turning up the heat. Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida State, Oregon and others with a lot of clout were in the mix for him the first time around, and you'd better believe they will continue to try.
Ducks coach Dan Lanning has enjoyed some recent success pulling big-name prospects out of the Magnolia State with running back Dante Dowdell signing last year. But even when he was committed to the Bulldogs' biggest rival, Burnside had great things to say about the Rebels.
"Ole Miss and Mississippi State, the hometown, have shown the most respect and the best recruiting-wise," he told the Clarion-Ledger's Langston Newsome in October.
Could Lane Kiffin convince a prospect to leave for the arch-nemesis? It wouldn't be the first time, but there are plenty of twists and turns left in this one.
Prediction: Ole Miss Rebels
Courtney Crutchfield, Wide Receiver
3 of 11
Another SEC program struggling this year is the Arkansas Razorbacks, and even though they pulled off a huge upset this past weekend with a road win over Florida, they still have a ways to go on the field.
They need to make inroads off it, too.
Head coach Sam Pittman was dealt a blow this weekend when 4-star receiver Courtney Crutchfield, a Pine Bluff, Arkansas prospect, backed off his commitment to the Hogs and appears destined for another, rival school.
The 6'2", 175-pound, long-striding pass-catcher has a major upside and is an all-star athlete who also runs track and plays basketball in high school. While there are a lot of potential suitors, 247Sports director for recruiting Steve Wiltfong predicted he will play for Missouri.
That would be a big win for coach Eli Drinkwitz's Tigers, who are using Luther Burden III to perfection this year and have helped resurrect Theo Wease's career after he transferred from Oklahoma. With several star commits in this year's class already, Crutchfield may be the next one.
Crutchfield told Wiltfong that Tennessee, LSU, Missouri and Arkansas are the schools he is considering most. While any of those teams could find themselves deeper in the mix the longer his recruitment plays out, Mizzou has staying power.
And the Tigers aren't far from home, either.
Prediction: Missouri Tigers
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Andrew Dennis, Interior Offensive Lineman
4 of 11
With uncertainty floating around Michigan State's program after the ouster of Mel Tucker and such an awful year on the field, the Spartans are experiencing some fallout on the recruiting trail.
The latest big blow came when 4-star offensive lineman Andrew Dennis, a 6'5", 275-pound prospect from Mount Pleasant, Michigan opened things back up in mid-October. Since then, he's really seen his recruitment elevate. Recently, Clemson entered the picture.
Penn State, Illinois, Purdue and others are firmly in the mix, too, as teams from across the Midwest are looking to keep him close to home but away from Michigan State. He is scheduled to visit the Nittany Lions this weekend, and Kentucky has entered the fold with an offer, too.
Don't be surprised if Dennis heavily considers Clemson, which has a way of zeroing in on the kids they want, and coach Dabo Swinney still has a lot of sway on the trail. Dennis recently visited Illinois and Purdue, too.
Really, any of those teams could land him, and he may not be done luring potential top-tier programs, because others will watch his film and swoop in with an offer.
Right now, it's hard to ignore the lure of top-shelf programs such as Penn State and Clemson. Expect those two to be heavily involved down the stretch. While the Nittany Lions may hold an edge if it ended today, Clemson's need for offensive linemen could be big.
Let's roll with a wild card.
Prediction: Clemson Tigers
Jamari Howard, Cornerback
5 of 11
The second consecutive Michigan State decommitment on this list backed away from his pledge to the Spartans back in May, but his recruitment hasn't slowed down in the least.
Miami prospect Jamari Howard is a long-armed, quality cornerback with exceptional foot speed and ball skills. And when you combine that with a 6'2", 175-pound frame, it's no wonder he's one of the most coveted prospects remaining in the nation.
The "Big Three" of Florida, Florida State and Miami are hot on his trail, but he's going to come off the board this Friday, and it looks like he may head a bit further north to play his college ball.
Right now, his 247Sports Crystal Ball predictions are pointing toward him heading to Tallahassee to play for the Seminoles, and that would be a major coup for Mike Norvell.
The 'Noles are among the nation's top teams this year, competing for the College Football Playoffs with an undefeated record, and recruits are taking notice. This is back to being the powerhouse recruiter it was under Bobby Bowden and Jimbo Fisher, and with the transfer portal thrown in, FSU is finding success getting all types of players in the fold.
Could Howard shock everybody and end up elsewhere? Absolutely. Miami coach Mario Cristobal has experienced success keeping kids home, and there are a lot of other potential destinations, too.
But this one feels too much like garnet and gold.
Prediction: Florida State Seminoles
Trever Jackson, Quarterback
6 of 11
One of the biggest shocks of the recruiting cycle came when 4-star quarterback Trever Jackson backed off his commitment from Ole Miss on October 29.
On one hand, it was surprising because he was coach Lane Kiffin's only signal-caller pledge in a class where the Rebels certainly want to sign one with Spencer Sanders out of eligibility. Though Jaxson Dart has at least another year in Oxford, depth is needed behind Walker Howard and Austin Simmons in the future.
Another reason is there's no real clear leader for Jackson, either. Trying to find intel on where he may wind up is like a ghost town. At this late juncture, though, there are always teams looking for quarterbacks.
Pittsburgh is certainly an option, but it's hard to envision an Orlando-area prospect heading there to play ball and eschewing the SEC. Maybe it will happen, but it would be out of the ordinary. Suitors almost certainly will emerge, but it's cloudy who they will be.
Texas A&M, UCLA and Oklahoma were his finalists when he chose the Rebels, and while the Aggies and Sooners each have quarterbacks committed in this class, they're just 3-star prospects.
Coach Chip Kelly's Bruins don't have a QB in this class yet, so don't be surprised if they ramp up the attention. As a blind guess, we'll roll with an out-of-nowhere win for one of the Big Ten's newest 2024 teams.
Prediction: UCLA Bruins
Kewon Lacey, Running Back
7 of 11
When Lancaster, Texas running back Kewan Lacy chose to back off his Nebraska Cornhuskers commitment in late October, the floodgates opened as far as interest goes.
Really, it never stopped.
That's why the 6'0" 205-pound speedster decided he needed to reassess things with just months left in the recruiting cycle. Since then, teams such as Florida, Ole Miss, SMU, Arizona State and Alabama have turned up the heat.
While the Crimson Tide may have other prospects they're in deeper with, Lacy is a guy who a lot of teams will value because of his complete skill set. The lure of the powerhouse Tide is great, as he told 247Sports' Mike Roach, but Alabama is still in on several running backs.
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin seems to be prioritizing Lacy moving forward, and Florida coach Billy Napier appears poised to make a run, too, based on Lacy's comments to Roach. But one team that maybe isn't being talked about enough are the hometown Mustangs.
With SMU moving to the ACC in the future, it has that Power 5 clout it didn't have before. It also plays an exciting brand of offense under coach Rhett Lashlee and is trying to keep Dallas-area top talent at home.
Lacy would be another poster child for that effort. He has a lot of speed in a compact, powerful frame and is going to make some team very happy. We'll stick with him staying home.
It's going to be a battle between Kiffin and the hometown team.
Prediction: Ole Miss Rebels
Jayden Lewis, Cornerback
8 of 11
Auburn first-year coach Hugh Freeze already has experienced a ton of recruiting success in the loveliest village on the Plains, but there is a bit of volatility in the class as well.
Running back J'Marion Burnette is already on this list as somebody who seemed all set on the Tigers before opening things back up, and Anniston (Alabama) cornerback Jayden Lewis is the second player here to do the same.
The 5'11', 175-pound defensive back decided he wanted to take a step back and reevaluate things on October 17, moving away from his commitment to the Tigers. Where he looks next is anybody's guess.
Christian Clemente of 247Sports said the program and player are "headed in different directions" as Auburn tries to turn up the heat on other prospects. The Tigers also recently lost defensive back commit Jalewis Solomon, who flipped to South Carolina.
On3's Chad Simmons said recently that several schools have reached out to Lewis, including Tennessee, Louisville, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Oklahoma, and he visited the Vols in early October.
No real favorites have reportedly emerged for Lewis, who continues to take visits and seems open to a lot of different teams. This past weekend, he visited Louisville, and with the Cardinals excelling on the field, don't be surprised if they have some staying power. It's a guess, but we'll go with Jeff Brohm's team.
Ole Miss, Arkansas, Oklahoma and others could make things interesting, though.
Prediction: Louisville Cardinals
Drelon Miller, Wide Receiver
9 of 11
Elite receiver Drelon Miller was committed to Texas A&M for four months before decommitting back on October 17.
Maybe there are just too many rumors swirling about coach Jimbo Fisher's job security for him to feel secure with a future destination of College Station. Even with new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino in the fold, it's not been a good year (again) for the Aggies.
That's why the 6'0", 190-pound Sillsbee, Texas native and highest-rated prospect on this list at No. 66 overall nationally is reviewing his options. And, boy, are there many of them.
He can do anything with the ball in his hands and is an explosive athlete who plays quarterback, running back and receiver for his team. Everybody wants a weapon like Miller, and he can go virtually anywhere.
This past weekend, he was at Colorado for the Buffaloes' loss to Oregon State, and he plans to visit LSU and USC next. Of course, the lure of Hollywood to play for coach Lincoln Riley's high-flying offensive attack will be enticing.
Also, even after the buzz has died down regarding Deion Sanders' start in Colorado, the Buffs are getting plenty of kids to head to Boulder to visit, and they can't be discounted.
But the purple-and-gold elephant in the corner are the Bayou Bengals. Miller was at LSU the weekend before he decommitted from the Aggies, and he is now going to visit there again. The Tigers have always enjoyed success recruiting in the Lone Star State, and they may get it done here, too.
Prediction: LSU Tigers
Hunter Moddon, Cornerback
10 of 11
It's always interesting when home-state prospects decommit from the school they were jumping at the offer to get in the first place.
But Friendswood, Texas cornerback Hunter Moddon decided back in June to decommit from the Longhorns and go through the recruiting process. Now, the Houston-area prospect is reaching the end of his recruitment, and his decision remains up in the air.
The 6'0", 175-pound defensive back is not one of the highest-rated prospects on this list, falling barely in the top 400, but he has a lot of good, translatable skills.
Some sites list him as a cornerback, while others see him as a wide receiver or just a true "athlete." No matter where Moddon ends up playing on the next level, the versatility is nice.
There really hasn't been a peep about his recruitment since he left the Longhorns' class in June, and that's puzzling. You normally see a lot more action with visits and interest, and none of the major recruiting services have anything recently on his recruitment.
What does that mean? Lots of times, top teams know when prospects are leaning heavily in one direction, and while there hasn't been any evidence, Moddon is from the Houston area, a place where the home-city Cougars have enjoyed success keeping top prospects from leaving.
Moddon may be the next one to stick around.
Prediction: Houston Cougars
Naki Tuakoi, Edge
11 of 11
There have been glimmers of hope for the Stanford Cardinal in coach Troy Taylor's first year, but with so much transition coming soon for the entire Pac-12, edge-rusher Naki Tuakoi decided he didn't want to go through that with Stanford.
That is, unless something changes his mind and he recommits to the team.
The 6'4", 222-pound Oakland, California native backed off his commitment to Taylor's team in late October, and he is reopening things now.
Tuakoi is a big-bodied athlete who can play with his hand down or on the second level as a rushing linebacker. There are a lot of qualities to like about him as a prospect, and while there isn't a lot known about where he's looking right now, there are intriguing possibilities.
Teams like USC, Notre Dame, Oregon, Oregon State and others had extended offers to Tuakoi when he committed to the Cardinal. And while some classes are filling up, there are needs everywhere.
If the Trojans get heavily involved, you've got to think they would be intriguing with such a blossoming program and in major need of defensive help after the porous unit fired coordinator Alex Grinch this past week.
One team not to sleep on is the Arizona Wildcats. Coach Jedd Fisch's team was deeply involved with Tuakoi the first time around and received an official visit. Now, with the resurgence the Wildcats are experiencing, maybe he wants to be part of it.
Prediction: Arizona Wildcats
All stats courtesy of CFBStats and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted. Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brad Shepard on Twitter, @Brad_Shepard.
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