Buying or Selling Leaps Forward for Kakko, Lafreniere, Recent NHL Top-10 Picks
Not all top draft picks develop at the same pace. Players like Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews entering the NHL as teenagers and immediately becoming megastars can sometimes shift the level of expectation for other top picks and create an unreachable goal.
Sometimes, as in the case of Nathan MacKinnon, it can take a few years.
In other cases, as with Nail Yakupov, it may never happen.
With that in mind, we are going to take a look at some recent top-10 picks who have not yet established themselves as stars for one reason or another and buy or sell their chances of making that leap this season.
We are limiting this to top-10 picks as far back as 2018 who have played in at least 30 games at the NHL level without yet becoming stars.
Sell: Alexis Lafreniere, New York Rangers
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The New York Rangers are off to a fantastic start under new head coach Peter Laviolette, but the success or failure of this era will largely hinge on the development of recent top-two picks Alexis Lafreniere (No. 1 overall in 2020) and Kaapo Kakko (No. 2 overall in 2019).
When a team is fortunate enough to land picks at that spot, it is essential that they get cornerstone players who become stars.
To this point, the Rangers have not received that, continuing a disturbing organizational trend where they are unable to develop talented young forwards.
Let's start with Lafreniere.
Even though he is still only 22 years old, it is important to keep in mind that he is already in his fourth year in the league and played more than 225 regular-season games. He is quickly becoming a veteran, and that means he is also rapidly transitioning from "prospect" to "suspect" given the lack of overall production.
He entered the season as one of the least productive first overall picks of the modern era, averaging just 0.42 points per game. Of the 13 forwards picked No. 1 overall between 2005 and 2022, that was the lowest per-game average through their first three seasons. Even lower than Nail Yakupov, one of the biggest No. 1 busts in recent memory.
The only thing that Lafreniere has had going for him—and still has going for him this season—is that he has done a decent job scoring goals at even strength, averaging a very respectable 0.90 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play.
The concern with that is it is the only thing he has done well at the NHL level, and almost all of that goal production is driven by an extremely high shooting percentage. The ability to generate chances, his shot volume, and his ability to carry a line on his own have not really been up to par for a top pick. That is exactly how his 2023-24 season is playing out so far.
He has four goals on 16 shots but is actually averaging fewer shots on goal per game than he did a year ago while playing an extra minute per game.
He just does not look like a game-changer at this point. He is not a bad player. But the expected leap does not seem to be happening. This might just be the player he is.
Buy: Quinton Byfield, Los Angeles Kings
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Quinton Byfield was the No. 2 pick in the Lafreniere draft class, 2020, and while his overall numbers have been worse, there are some encouraging signs for him this season.
The first is that Byfield really has not yet had the number of extended opportunities at the NHL level as Lafreniere has had. The Los Angeles Kings forward has played in just 110 regular-season games and has spent parts of two years playing in the American Hockey League. He also had to deal with a fractured ankle that really disrupted a year of his development.
But midway through the 2022-23 season, the Kings seemed to find a home for Byfield on their top line alongside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. That line formed an immediate chemistry that has carried over to the start of this season.
It really does seem like the perfect storm for Byfield and his potential step forward.
He is healthy, he is getting an opportunity to play big minutes next to two outstanding players, and the early results have not only been a dominant level of play from their line as a whole, but also strong individual production from Byfield. He is up to 10 points in his first 11 games this season.
He not only has the talent to take the leap forward, but he is also in the best situation to make it happen.
Sell: Kaapo Kakko, New York Rangers
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Everything from the Lafreniere section can probably be repeated for Kaapo Kakko, the No. 2 pick in the 2019 draft class.
He arrived in New York with enormous potential and hope, but into the fifth year of his career, the Rangers are still waiting for him to take a step forward and start playing like a top pick.
It does not seem to be happening with Kakko, and it should again call into question the Rangers' ability to develop young talent.
Playing time, trust from the coaching staff and production when the opportunity is there have all been issues throughout the early portion of Kakko's career.
There have been some slightly more encouraging signs from him at times, at least as it relates to his ability to drive possession, but the overall numbers are still not there. Given that he is nearly a year older than Lafreniere and has an extra year of experience, it is starting to get even more concerning.
He turns 23 later this season and has scored just 45 goals in 250 regular-season games, while he has managed just two points and only 14 shots on goal in his first 11 games this season.
We are reaching the point where if the step forward does not come this season, it's fair to ask if it ever will.
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Buy: Marco Rossi, Minnesota Wild
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The Minnesota Wild selected Marco Rossi with the No. 9 pick in 2020 with the hope he could become a star in the middle of their lineup. Then his career got off to one of the worst starts imaginable when he lost significant development time due to long-term complications from COVID, really limiting what he could do and how much he could play early on.
He has spent the bulk of the past two seasons playing in the American Hockey League, where he was an extremely productive player with 104 points (34 goals, 70 assists) in 116 games during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons.
He didn't really do much in his brief NHL appearances over those seasons, but that has changed dramatically in the early part of 2023-24.
Rossi has been one of the few bright spots for a cap-strapped Wild team that is off to a woefully disappointing start, scoring five goals with seven points in his first 11 games.
Along with the goals, he has simply been one of the Wild's most efficient and impactful players and is taking full advantage of his first opportunity to skate on the team's top line.
He leads the Wild in goals per 60 minutes during five-on-five play, leads the team in individual expected goals per 60 minutes and is second in individual high-danger chances per 60 minutes.
He is generating chances, finishing plays and looking like the type of impact player the Wild hoped he could be.
The Wild were always going to be working at a disadvantage this season because of the salary-cap situation created by the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, and even though the playoffs are a reasonable goal, they were probably never going to be a Stanley Cup contender. But if Rossi takes a step forward and becomes a significant part of their long-term core, that definitely helps make the season a win in the big picture.
Sell: Jamie Drysdale, Anaheim Ducks
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The Anaheim Ducks have been one of the hottest teams in the league early this season and are getting some big contributions from some of their most important young players, including Mason McTavish and 2023 No. 2 overall pick Leo Carlsson.
One young player who has not been involved in that early success has been defenseman Jamie Drysdale, the No. 6 pick from the 2020.
Drysdale falls into the "sell" category at this point, not necessarily because of his play or potential, but the simple fact that injuries have been a major problem early in his career.
He has played in just two games this season due to a lower-body setback. He missed all but eight games of the 2022-23 season due to a shoulder injury and has just lost a lot of key development time early in his career.
That is a problem, especially when it comes to working on his defensive play away from the puck.
This is not to say that Drysdale is a bust or destined to become a bust.
Far from it, actually. He has shown flashes of potential early in his career—especially offensively—when he has been healthy, but he is just still really far from being a finished product. What he needs is a fully healthy season with an opportunity to play, and play a lot.
He has not had that yet, and it just seems like this might be another tough season of development for him.
Buy: Bowen Byram, Colorado Avalanche
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If the buy and sell options were buttons sitting in front of you, you should slam the buy button on a Bowen Byram breakout as hard as humanly possible. Byram and the Colorado Avalanche are a classic example of the rich finding a way to get richer, adding another potential future Norris Trophy contender and top-pairing defender to a team that is already swimming in them.
The Avalanche selected Byram with the No. 4 pick in 2019 due to the trade that sent forward Matt Duchene to Ottawa during the 2017-18 season. It was a trade that helped completely transform the long-term outlook of the Avalanche defense, netting them Sam Girard and the pick that became Byram.
Injuries have been a problem for Byram early in his career, as well as the fact he is trying to compete for ice time on what is probably the best, deepest defensive group in the NHL. Both factors have limited him to 100 regular-season games. But his talent and potential are both through the roof, and both have been on display when he has been on the ice over the past few years.
Some might argue that he already had a leap forward during the 2022-23 season when he scored 10 goals and 24 points in only 40 regular-season games. But there is still another level for him to reach, and he can get there this season as long as he is able to stay on the ice and play a full campaign in that lineup.
Sell: Juraj Slafkovsky, Montreal Canadiens
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Juraj Slafkovsky is in a brutal position because he not only has the pressure of being a No. 1 overall pick, he has the pressure of being the No. 1 overall pick in Montreal, where pressure and expectations are always going to be at a boiling point. He is also going to have to deal with the comparisons to a player like Arizona's Logan Cooley, who went two picks after him and is already looking like a natural fit in the NHL.
The early returns on Slafkovsky have not been great, and he could find himself in the American Hockey League at some point in the not-too-distant future.
Given that, and given his usage and role early this season, the chances of a breakout happening this season seem slim.
Very slim, actually.
But that doesn't necessarily mean you should give up on him long-term.
He is still only 19 years old and lost half of his age-18 season to injury.
He is going to be a project and require some patience, but he is also the type of prospect a team can dream on given his massive 6'3", 230-pound frame, talent and age. The Canadiens have a nice collection of young talent they can build around, and Slafkovsky is a significant part of that. It just might take him a couple of years before he becomes the player they are dreaming he can be.
Advanced statistics via Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted. Statistics accurate as of Monday.
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