Juan Soto Trade Rumors: Padres Star Could Have More Value at Deadline Than Offseason

Waiting until the last minute is typically disadvantageous in trade negotiations. However, that might be the best course of action for the San Diego Padres were they to move star outfielder Juan Soto.

USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported "the conventional thinking among GMs is that Soto will actually have more value at the trade deadline than moving him now."

Soto is entering his final year of arbitration, which is leading some to wonder whether San Diego will cash in on his trade value rather than stretch themselves even further with what could be a historic long-term contract.

Based on recent history, there may be no guarantee the Padres secure a solid return in a Soto trade if they move him before Opening Day.

The Mookie Betts deal looked bad at the time and has only aged worse. The Cleveland Guardians did a little better when they finally jettisoned Francisco Lindor, but the jury is still out on Andrés Giménez to some degree after his production waned in 2023.

If the options are getting a lesser package now or getting a lesser package later, then the Padres may as well wait and see how they start the 2024 season. Even after a bitterly disappointing season, San Diego has too much money committed to pivot in another direction.

Finances might wind up forcing the hand of general manager A.J. Preller, though.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported in September the Padres are looking to get their payroll to $200 million for next year, down from $256 million.

The Athletic's Evan Drellich, Dennis Lin, Ken Rosenthal provided what's perhaps some necessary context when they reported the organization sought a loan of around $50 million in September "to address short-term cash flow issues and meet their obligations, including player payroll."

Nightengale reported Xander Bogaerts or Fernando Tatis Jr. could be trade candidates if Preller needs to offload a big salary while retaining Soto. There may not be a lot of takers for Bogaerts when he still has 10 years left to run on his $280 million contract. Tatis, likewise, has seen his stock take a hit since his 80-game suspension for violating the performance-enhancing drug policy.

In the case of Tatis, San Diego would also be sacrificing a young star with no assurances as to Soto's long-term future.

You have to respect the ambition of owner Peter Seidler, even if 2023 was a failure on a historic scale. But he may have painted himself and Preller into a corner when it comes to Soto.