B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 8
Each week is a gift. Let's never forget that.
As we lap the halfway point of the college football season, it's important to treasure each and every Saturday. While we still have many meaningful games yet to play—including a monster matchup this weekend—don't take anything for granted.
When it comes to point spreads, each one of those is a gift as well. And last week, they were kind to us.
Our picks against the spread went a cozy 6-2-1 in Week 7. Somewhat miraculously, it took us this long to pick up our first push of the year. For the year, we're now 36-30-1.
Before we dive into our Week 8 picks, let's first explore what went right (and wrong) from the week that was.
The Good: Pittsburgh (+7.5) vs. Louisville: This was a gut-check pick that played out beautifully. Pittsburgh won this game by more than two touchdowns, removing any notion of a sweat in the fourth quarter. These are the types of wins we crave.
The Bad: Miami (+3.5) vs. North Carolina: What could go wrong ultimately went wrong, and Miami didn't even show in the second half. I'll keep this commentary limited, as there will be more Hurricanes thoughts momentarily. (Spoiler alert.)
With that, here are this week's picks.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Miami (+3) vs. Clemson
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I should know better.
No, I do know better.
Watching Miami last week prompted a slew of emotions, most of which were the opposite of positive. The Hurricanes turned the ball over four times, and they still had a chance to cover at the very end. (They did not.)
Still, this was a sloppy performance, and it came on the heels of a coaching meltdown.
So, why are we back on board?
A lot of that has to do with the other sideline. We still have our doubts about Clemson. The Tigers' most impressive performance to date was actually the loss to Florida State. Outside of that performance, the results have been underwhelming.
Miami should have a sizable advantage on offense, and home field should also help. If this one doesn't hit, we'll put the Hurricanes in the penalty box for a few weeks.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
USC (-7) vs. Utah
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Although last week was nothing short of a disaster in all facets, USC was declared a sizable favorite and has since seen a fair amount of betting support.
Given what we've seen over the past month, it's reasonable to question this. The Trojans played a horrendous game in South Bend. Caleb Williams threw three interceptions, the special teams was a mess and the overall performance was, well, rough.
At home, however, we should see a much different USC.
Utah, meanwhile, is one of the most unbalanced teams in football. The defense is currently ranked No. 5 in scoring. The offense is ranked No. 111. (For reference, Iowa is ranked No. 10 and No. 114 in the same categories.)
The absence of QB Cameron Rising has had a significant impact on this output, and his status remains a bit of a mystery. Regardless, this feels like a really bad matchup for the Utes.
USC is by no means a perfect team, but the defensive struggles shouldn't be as prevalent here. Trojans by double digits.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Arkansas (-6) vs. Mississippi State
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For Sam Pittman, it's been a rough go.
Arkansas has lost five consecutive games, and the only two wins of the year have come against Kent State and Western Carolina.
Granted, the schedule has been brutal. The Hogs have played three teams ranked in the Top 16 in the past month. Those three losses came by a combined 13 points.
In short, even against excellent competition, this team has played well. But that won't cheer up the fanbase at the moment.
This is a week to get right. For as much as Arkansas has struggled, Mississippi State has been right there. Although unlike the Razorbacks, the Bulldogs' losses against better competition hasn't been all that close.
One week won't erase two painful months. But it's certainly a start.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
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Penn State (+4.5) at Ohio State
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If you have followed these picks long enough, you're already aware that we don't automatically include the biggest games of the weekend.
If anything, we normally shy away from them and focus elsewhere. It's not by choice; we simply go where the value takes us.
In this instance, however, Penn State has value, even in a difficult environment for a road team.
Normally, Ohio State has a talent advantage over its opponent. In this instance, that isn't necessarily clear. Wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. might be the best college football player in the nation, but Penn State has the advantage in many other places.
This game could be ugly and low-scoring. With the nation's No. 2 and No. 3 scoring defenses going head-to-head, that feels inevitable.
In the end, Penn State will be in a position to win outright. This feels like a field-goal game that could go in either direction. What a matchup.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Kansas State (-6.5) vs. TCU
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TCU, it isn't personal.
In fact, the Horned Frogs were incredibly kind to the bank account last week against BYU. We're certainly well aware of that, and there were a lot of things to like.
But this point spread jumped off the page from the start. Although Kansas State has been a slight disappointment thus far, all hope isn't lost. A solid win over Texas Tech could be exactly what this program needed to get right.
In that game, we saw the emergence of quarterback Avery Johnson. Johnson ran for 90 yards and five touchdowns, providing an immediate spark. It is unclear if Will Howard or Johnson will get more reps this week, but both should play.
And both should be effective.
At home, Kansas State finds its rhythm with a double-digit win.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Other Games on the Card
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Indiana (+5) vs. Rutgers
This is not a football game I encourage you to watch, but the home underdog feels like it could be alive. Indiana has a chance to pull the outright win.
UConn (+2.5) vs. South Florida
A team that played tough against Alabama is less than a field goal favorite against UConn? That smells like my kind of football wager.
West Virginia (-3.5) vs. Oklahoma State
With both teams in wild stretches, look for West Virginia to cool down the surging Pokes. For Neal Brown to stay off the hot seat, he needs to win this game.
Auburn (+6.5) vs. Ole Miss
Although Auburn lost by plenty last week, expect a different result this time around. The Tigers will be a much different opponent at home.
UNLV vs. Colorado State (Over 64)
There will be points. This much we know. While we're shying away from the point spread, expect both offenses to have success here.
Wake Forest (-1) vs. Pittsburgh
The Panthers benefited from a Louisville hangover last week. This week, they'll experience one of their own after a massive win.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
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