AL Wild Card Series 2023: Blue Jays vs. Twins Storylines and Preview

Runs will likely be at a premium in the American League wild-card series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins.

Both teams possess excellent rotations that can take advantage of offenses that did not have great seasons.

Minnesota can throw its trio of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan at home at Target Field in the best-of-three series.

Toronto can counter with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios.

Both teams enter the postseason in the top 15 of team OPS and on-base percentage, but each lineup has clear flaws.

Minnesota's lineup led the majors in strikeouts, while Toronto's offense dropped off due to some disappointing individual campaigns.

The strong starting pitching on both sides could make every contest determined by one run, and advancement to the ALDS may come down to one or two players getting hot at the plate.

Pitching Should Dominate Series

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TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 26: Kevin Gausman #34 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning in their MLB game at the Rogers Centre on September 26, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)

Toronto and Minnesota each rank in the top six in team ERA.

The Blue Jays carry the slightly better mark in fourth place with a 3.78 team ERA. The Twins possess a sixth-best 3.89 team ERA.

The two pitching staffs rank first and second in strikeouts, and that could be the biggest thing that stands out compared to the other three wild-card series.

The Gausman-led Toronto staff could take advantage of Minnesota's league-leading strikeout rate on offense, while Lopez and the Twins could force the Blue Jays into plenty of whiffs.

All of the statistics suggest the Blue Jays and Twins will struggle for runs in every inning of the series, which will likely begin with Gausman and Lopez on the mound.

All three games of the series, if it goes that far, could be decided by one swing, which will make every at-bat more tense than a usual postseason series.

A low-scoring series would be preferred for the Blue Jays after they conceded 14 runs in two losses to the Seattle Mariners in the wild-card round last season.

Can Toronto's Bats Wake Up?

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TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 26: Toronto Blue Jays First base Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) runs the bases during the MLB baseball regular season game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays on September 29, 2023, at Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Toronto's offense has been inconsistent at times this season.

Take the last week of the regular season as an example of that. The Blue Jays were shutout twice by the New York Yankees and then scored 24 runs against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Toronto needs its top bats to be more consistent in order to chase Minnesota's top-end pitchers.

Only Bo Bichette and Whit Merrifield hit over .275 among players who were with the team for the entire season and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s power stroke escaped him for stretches of the campaign.

Guerrero finished with 26 home runs, a disappointing total compared to what the expectations were for him before the season.

Toronto's biggest X-factor could be Matt Chapman, who hit .240 and struck out on 165 occasions.

Chapman homered in two of his last three regular-season appearances. That could be a sign that he is getting out of his season-long funk just in time for the postseason.

Will Minnesota Overcome Key Injuries?

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CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 15: Royce Lewis #23 of the Minnesota Twins celebrates after hitting a grand-slam home run in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 15, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)

Minnesota may have to pitch its way to 1-0, 2-1-type games because of the pop its lineup may lack.

Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are all dealing with injuries of varying severity entering the postseason.

Correa and Lewis should be on the postseason despite their recent spells on the 10-day injured list, while Buxton's presence is unlikely.

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM last week that Correa "would not be at 100 percent" but that the shortstop would participate in the postseason.

Baldelli noted Lewis was dealing with a Grade 1-plus hamstring strain and said that if he could swing, he could be the designated hitter.

Buxton has been on the injured list for two months and his knee issue may do more harm than good to the Twins roster in a three-game series.

Correa and Lewis provided five hits against the Blue Jays the second time they faced Gausman in the regular season. Donovan Solano and Kyle Garlick were the only other players to get extra-base hits off Toronto's likely Game 1 starter.

Minnesota could struggle to find runs without one of its top power bats in the lineup and with two other strong hitters hampered by injuries.