NFL Picks Week 3: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
While the NFL strives for parity, some games are inevitably one-sided. Upsets happen, but there will always be teams with the talent and/or the individual matchups to be heavy favorites going in.
This is precisely why lines exist in the betting world.
Were the San Francisco 49ers always likely to beat the New York Giants on Thursday night? Given New York's lackluster run defense and rash of injuries, absolutely. Installing San Francisco as a double-digit favorite allowed fans to make wagers that actually kept the game interesting.
Below, we'll dive into a few other favorites we like in Week 3. We'll examine the matchups, any relevant injury buzz, and why these are enticing early weekend lines.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Kansas City Chiefs -12.5 Versus Chicago Bears
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This is a massive line, and the Kansas City Chiefs haven't looked particularly good through two weeks of football. However, Kansas City is still a favorite worth backing, and for a couple of reasons.
For one, Kansas City is back at home after facing the Jaguars in Jacksonville in Week 2. The Chiefs have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, and that's going to make things tough on Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields.
Fields still has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long, and he recently admitted that he isn't quite on the same page with offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and the Bears' staff.
"They are doing their job when they are giving me what to look at, but at the end of the day, I can't be thinking about that when the game comes," Fields said in a mid-week press conference.
I don't believe that Fields was trying to throw Chicago's coaches under the bus here, but it sounds as if there's a disconnect in the in-game communication. On the road and against a talented Chiefs defense, that's a problem.
The Bears also have a lifeless defense that is still struggling to limit opponents. With Travis Kelce in his second game back from a knee injury, Mahomes and Co. should finally start to find a rhythm in this one.
It's a huge mismatch on both sides of the ball, and Kansas City should pull off the two-touchdown victory.
Minnesota Vikings -1 Versus Los Angeles Chargers
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The Minnesota Vikings were home dogs against the Los Angeles Chargers early in the week. They've since moved to slight favorites, possibly as a result of Wednesday's trade for running back Cam Akers.
Akers should help bolster what has been arguably the league's worst rushing attack immediately. He played under head coach Kevin O'Connell with the Los Angeles Rams and should already be familiar with Minnesota's concepts and terminology.
This game is essentially a pick-em, and I do like the Vikings at home. Both Minnesota and the Chargers have struggled to get out of their own way this season, but the Vikings' mistakes have been unfortunate.
Minnesota has committed seven turnovers while recording just a single takeaway. It ranks eighth in total offense despite its lack of rushing ability but only 18th in scoring. The law of averages suggests that the Vikings will stop giving the ball away at some point.
The tide could turn against an L.A. defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed and failed to record a takeaway in Week 2. With star Chargers running back Austin Ekeler still battling an ankle injury and officially out, Minnesota has a prime opportunity to finally get into the win column.
New England Patriots -2.5 Versus New York Jets
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The New England Patriots didn't outlast the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, but they did a respectable job of slowing Miami's explosive offense. The Dolphins put 389 yards on the stat sheet but produced only 24 points.
Now, the Patriots face a New York Jets team that has gotten very little going offensively in the wake of losing Aaron Rodgers for the season. The Jets have been forced to turn back to Zach Wilson, and Wilson tossed three second-half interceptions during the Week 2 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
New York features its own talented defense, and this one could come down to which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes .Though he didn't look good a year ago, I trust Mac Jones in this matchup.
The addition/return of offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien has helped New England's offense, which ranks 14th in yardage after ranking 26th in 2022.
Is Jones all the way back to Pro Bowl form? No, but he hasn't been the liability under center that Wilson has been.
The Patriots haven't lost to the Jets since December of 2015. It's hard to envision New England's streak ending this week, and the Patriots should win by a field goal, even on the road.
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