NL Wild Card Race 2023: Predictions For MLB's Most Unpredictable Race
Good luck to anyone who would dare predict the outcome of the National League wild card race. Even with the 2023 season 93 percent finished, seven teams remain in the mix.
Did I, in effect, just wish myself good luck? You bet I did.
Ahead are final predictions for how the seven teams still in the NL wild card hunt will finish. Three will make and four won't. It's that simple, though it also seemed like a good idea to rank them by their projected final records.
As for what went into this, real-world variables such as how teams are trending, what they do and don't have to play with and what their remaining schedules look like were involved. But like all predictions, these ultimately came from the gut.
Note: All playoff odds courtesy of DraftKings.
7. Out: San Francisco Giants
1 of 7
Record: 76-75, 3.0 GB for 3rd NL Wild Card
Remaining Schedule: 1 @ ARI, 4 @ LAD, 3 vs. SDP, 3 vs. LAD
Playoff Odds: +2000
Sorry, Giants, but you had your moment and now it's gone.
Said moment was when the Giants ripped off 37 wins in 55 games between May 15 and July 18. That all feels like ancient history now, which speaks to how time can warp when a team subsequently drops 34 of its next 56.
It's a positive development that Wilmer Flores is no longer carrying the offense by himself in September, but no such optimism can be applied to the pitching staff. Giants hurlers have a 4.95 ERA this month, wherein manager Gabe Kapler isn't exactly up to his neck in healthy and effective starters. There's Logan Webb and...well, Logan Webb.
Oh, and San Francisco's remaining schedule? It's rough.
The Diamondbacks are a fellow wild card contender and the Dodgers still have a chance at stealing the NL's top seed from Atlanta. And despite the no good, very bad, terrible vibrations, the Padres are suddenly on an upswing.
Final Record: 80-82
6. Out: San Diego Padres
2 of 7
Record: 74-78, 5.5 GB for 3rd NL Wild Card
Remaining Schedule: 1 vs. COL, 3 vs, STL, 3 @ SFG, 3 @ CHW
Playoff Odds: NA
Look, nothing the Padres do in the next two weeks is going to validate their season.
Fighting for their playoff lives with less than two weeks was not part of the plan coming in. According to FanGraphs, they opened with an 85.3 percent chance to make the playoffs and an 11.1 percent chance to win the World Series. Those figures are, uh, lower now.
Still, you have to hand it to any team that insists on dying with its boots on.
The Padres are 12-5 in September and have won seven out of their last eight. Blake Snell's Cy Young Award push is the story to follow on the pitching side, and the Padres are otherwise riding a hot offense that's scoring 6.2 runs per game this month.
Even if it is too little, too late, it's an effort they should be able to keep up against the likes of the Rockies, Cardinals, Giants and White Sox.
Projected Record: 81-81
5. Out: Chicago Cubs
3 of 7
Record: 79-72, Hold 3rd NL Wild Card
Remaining Schedule: 2 vs. PIT, 3 vs. COL, 3 @ ATL, 3 @ MIL
Playoff Odds: -110
If you're super into Major League Baseball's playoff tiebreakers, then you're already aware the Cubs are in deep you-know-what.
The first tiebreaker if one or more teams finishing with the same record involves head-to-head records. The Cubs won their season series against the Padres and Giants, but not against the other four teams they're up against: Cincinnati, Miami, Arizona and Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, the Cubs aren't exactly trending well.
Losses in eight out of 11 have cut the Cubs' playoff odds almost in half from a peak of 92.4 percent on Sep. 6. An offense that's missing Jeimer Candelario had been cold prior to a 14-run splurge on Tuesday. The pitching has fared better, but there's certainly pressure on Marcus Stroman to cover for the injured Adbert Alzolay in his new bullpen gig.
Five games at Wrigley Field against the Pirates and Rockies present a chance for the Cubs to pick themselves up. But even if neither has anything to play for by the time the Cubs come to town, facing Atlanta and Milwaukee on the road isn't an easy final assignment.
Projected Record: 83-79
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4. Out: Arizona Diamondbacks
4 of 7
Record: 80-72, +0.5 GB for 2nd NL Wild Card
Remaining Schedule: 1 vs. SFG, 3 @ NYY, 3 @ CHW, 3 vs. HOU
Playoff Odds: -195
It was only a couple days ago that the Diamondbacks limped out of Citi Field after dropping three out of four to the Mets. All seemed lost.
That is, of course, until they swept a three-gamer against the Cubs at Chase Field and won again against the Giants on Tuesday to bring their record in September to 11-7. That's a good omen, and so is the fact they're relatively healthy for the final push.
And yet, something about this team makes it hard to trust it.
The Snakes are 30-38 since July 2 and have actually been outscored in September. It's a big positive that the bullpen has been lights-out with a 2.22 ERA this month, but Corbin Carroll has hit a lull and Zac Gallen has served up four-plus runs in four of his last five starts.
Plus, Arizona's remaining schedule leans difficult. The Yankees are playing good baseball in September and the Astros figure to be tough even if they're in rest mode in that final series.
Projected Record: 84-78
3. In: Cincinnati Reds
5 of 7
Record: 79-74, 1 GB for 3rd NL Wild Card
Remaining Schedule: 1 vs. MIN, 3 vs. PIT, 2 @ CLE, 3 @ STL
Playoff Odds: +215
Recency bias? Sure, maybe a little.
Whereas the Cubs are 26-19 and the Diamondbacks are 23-22, the Reds are 20-25 since the start of August. They've been beset by a rush of pitching injuries and an inconsistent offense that's not getting much juice from previously electric rookie Elly De La Cruz.
But if anything is clear by now, it's that the Reds are a hard team to bury.
They've been the comeback kids within games all year, and now they're doing it on a more macro scale with wins in six of their last eight. Rookies Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte are hitting a combined .329 in September, and fellow rookie standout Matt McLain is due back from an oblique injury in the near future.
As Reds starters have a 5.79 ERA since Aug. 1 and the bullpen is up to 611.1 innings, it's the arms that fail to inspire confidence. But that shouldn't stop them from cutting through their soft remaining schedule, at which point their tiebreaker against Arizona (i.e., 4-3 record) will come in handy.
Projected Record: 84-78
2. In: Miami Marlins
6 of 7
Record: 79-73, 0.5 GB for 3rd NL Wild Card
Remaining Schedule: 1 vs. NYM, 3 vs. MIL, 3 @ NYM, 3 @ PIT
Playoff Odds: -130
It had never seemed safer to stick a fork in the Marlins than it did on Sep. 6.
That was the day they placed both Sandy Alcantara and Jorge Soler on the injured list. Without the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner or their leading home run hitter to help guide them, the sense of doom was palpable.
But they're resilient, these Fish. In part thanks to an emphatic sweep of Atlanta this past weekend, they're now 13-6 in 19 games dating back to the last day of August.
When Soler returned off the IL (and hit his 36th home run, no less) on Sunday, he rejoined an offense that's getting a .934 OPS from Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez in September. For his part, Alcantara may make his own return next week.
Save for those three games against the Brewers, the Marlins' remaining schedule leans soft. That's assuming they can improve on their 3-6 record against the Mets, of course, but that seems like a bet worth taking.
Projected Record: 85-77
1. In: Philadelphia Phillies
7 of 7
Record: 82-69, +3 GB for 1st NL Wild Card
Remaining Schedule: 1 @ ATL, 4 vs. NYM, 3 vs. PIT, 3 @ NYM
Playoff Odds: -20000
This is the anticlimactic part where I tell you something you already knew: the Phillies are going to claim the National League's top wild card.
There's certainly a non-zero chance that this won't happen. Those seven games against the Mets are a potential trap, and the Phillies themselves haven't been pitching the ball well of late. They have a 4.93 ERA in 20 games since Aug. 29.
Ah, but they are swinging the bats well.
More accurately, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner are swinging it well to the tune of a combined 1.064 OPS and 15 home runs in September. They're helping the offense sustain a heater that's yielded an average of 6.1 runs per game since Aug. 16.
Factoring in the Phillies are also the healthiest team in baseball right now and there really aren't any good reasons to foresee them losing their grip on the spot they have.
Projected Record: 88-74
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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