7 Teams with a Realistic Chance of Crashing the 2023 CFB Playoff
We've had just two weeks of the college football season. But that doesn't mean we can't discuss College Football Playoff hopefuls.
It's always fun to look at which teams might crash the playoff. Last season, TCU had 200-1 odds to win the national championship, so the Horned Frogs definitely qualified as a crasher.
A CFP crash team is one that may not be heavily favored to make it in at the start of the season, either due to a tough schedule or roster turnover. The current AP Top Six and teams that made the playoff in the last two years were not eligible to be picked. While it's still early in the season, a few teams already look like possible crashers for the 2023 playoff. No, Colorado is probably not making the playoff, so the Buffs aren't on this list. Let's dive in!
Washington, Oregon and Oregon State
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The Pac-12 looks like college football's deepest and most fun conference in 2023.
Although No. 5 USC and No. 12 Utah were the preseason favorites to win the conference, No. 8 Washington, No. 13 Oregon and No. 16 Oregon State could all crash the playoff. Oregon State has never made the playoff. Oregon did in 2014, the first-ever season we had the four-team playoff. Washington last did in 2016, under since-retired head coach Chris Petersen. But all three of these teams look like legitimate contenders.
All of them have talent at quarterback. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. could have been a highly drafted quarterback prospect this year. Instead, he chose to return to Washington for a final season. He's thrown for 859 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception. He's also second nationally in passing yards per game (429.5), just behind Colorado's Shedeur Sanders.
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix has 646 passing yards with five touchdowns. Oregon State's DJ Uiagalelei, who transferred from Clemson this offseason, looks like he is successfully resurrecting his career. He has 346 yards passing with five touchdowns, including another three rushing scores.
All three of these teams are currently 2-0. Let's run through the most important games for each of these teams to make it to the Pac-12 title game:
- Washington: Vs. Oregon, Oct. 14; at USC, Nov. 4; vs. Utah, Nov. 11; at Oregon State, Nov. 18; vs. Washington State, Nov. 25
- Oregon: Vs. Colorado, Sept. 23; at Washington, Oct. 14; vs. Washington State, Oct. 21; at Utah, Oct. 28; vs. USC, Nov. 11; vs. Oregon State, Nov. 24.
- Oregon State: At Washington State, Sept. 23; vs. Utah, Sept. 29; at Colorado, Nov. 4; vs. Washington, Nov. 18; at Oregon, Nov. 24
Since the conference did away with divisions in 2023, the Pac-12 title game will feature the two teams with the highest conference winning percentage. If either Washington, Oregon or Oregon State enters this game with just one loss after playing in such a deep conference, a playoff bid is certainly on the table.
Kansas State
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The new favorite to win the Big 12 and represent the conference in the playoff is Texas, coming off its road upset over Alabama. But let's not forget about No. 15 Kansas State. The Wildcats won this conference a year ago by handing TCU its first loss of the season in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Through two weeks, the Wildcats offense is humming, averaging 43.5 points per game, which ranks 19th. Veteran K-State quarterback Will Howard has thrown for 547 yards with five touchdowns and two picks.
Defensively, the Wildcats look strong, too. They shut out Southeast Missouri State in Week 1 and gave up 13 points to Troy last week. The Wildcats have been stellar at stopping the run so far, allowing just 38 yards on the ground per game, which is first nationally.
Kansas State's schedule looks navigable, too. Back-to-back road games against Oklahoma State (Oct. 6) and Texas Tech (Oct. 14) will be a challenge. From there, K-State gets home games vs. TCU and Houston, followed by a trip to No. 4 Texas to take on the Longhorns on Nov. 4, and at Kansas on Nov. 18.
Even if K-State were to lose to Texas, it could find itself back in the Big 12 title game against the Longhorns come December. A win there would likely be enough to put the Wildcats into the playoff.
Penn State
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The Big Ten East has been dominated by Michigan and Ohio State in recent years. Either team has represented the division in the Big Ten title game every year since 2017.
It's early, but this looks like No. 7 Penn State's best shot at getting back to Indianapolis for the first time since 2016. The Nittany Lions dominated West Virginia in Week 1 38-15 and then destroyed FCS Delaware 63-7. The most impressive player for the Nittany Lions so far is quarterback Drew Allar. A former 5-star QB prospect, Allar has thrown for 529 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He's completed 78.2 percent of his passes, too.
James Franklin's team boasts a top-10 unit in total defense, allowing just 224 yards per game. The secondary is seventh in passing defense, giving up 110 yards in the air. Junior linebacker Curtis Jacobs leads the team with 10 total tackles and a sack.
As for the rest of Penn State's schedule, the biggest games are obviously at No. 6 Ohio State on Oct. 21 and vs. No. 2 Michigan on Nov. 11. The Nittany Lions haven't won in Columbus since 2011, back when Joe Paterno was still Penn State's head coach. Getting a win vs. the Bucks on the road would make a huge statement and put Penn State in the driver's seat for the Big Ten East title. Michigan has won the last two vs. Penn State. But even if PSU loses once to Michigan or Ohio State, but beats the winner of The Game, that opens the door for the Nittany Lions to go to Indy.
As for the Big Ten West, the favorite appears to be an offensively revamped No. 25 Iowa. Yes, Iowa is averaging 22 points per game! A win there would vault a one-loss Penn State into the playoff.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Notre Dame
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Yes, I know Notre Dame is considered a playoff contender just about every season. But the Irish getting through a very tough schedule to make it back to the playoff for the first time since 2020 would certainly constitute crashing.
One reason ND looks like it could do just that is how well quarterback Sam Hartman has been playing. Hartman, who transferred from Wake Forest this offseason, has 731 yards passing with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions through three games.
Running back Audric Estime has been really productive, too. He has 345 yards with four touchdowns on 43 carries, averaging 8.02 yards per tote. My favorite Estime moment from this season came last week against NC State. During a lengthy weather delay, Estime and other ND players—playing the Wolfpack on the road—ate hotdogs from the stadium, which were gathered by staffers. On Notre Dame's first play from scrimmage after the nearly two-hour delay, Estime went 80 yards for a touchdown:
Estime should be fed hotdogs if Notre Dame ever trails from now on this season, just saying. Hotdogs aside, the Irish's schedule does include some tough games; Ohio State at Notre Dame Stadium on Sept. 23, at Duke on Sept. 30 and home games against USC and Pitt in October. The Irish go to Clemson on Nov. 4, get Wake Forest at home on Nov. 18 and close out the season at Stanford on Nov. 25.
The beauty of Notre Dame not playing in a conference? Come out of that slate with just one loss, and a playoff bid is pretty inevitable, even with ND not playing on Championship Saturday.
Oklahoma Sooners
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Head coach Brent Venables' first season at Oklahoma didn't go well, to say the least. The Sooners had their first losing season since 1998, finishing 6-7 with a loss to Florida State in the Cheez-It Bowl.
But the Sooners look like a much more improved team in 2023, thanks to some impressive quarterback play from Dillon Gabriel. In Oklahoma's season opener against Arkansas State, Gabriel threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns, missing on just three of his 22 pass attempts. The 73-0 win was the largest margin of victory for a Sooners season opener since 1917.
In Week 2 against SMU, Oklahoma came down to earth a bit. The Sooners didn't win as big—28-11—but Gabriel had another solid day. He finished with 176 yards passing and four touchdowns, as running back Tawee Walker added 117 yards on the ground.
Oklahoma's defense, which should be the most productive unit under Venables, has allowed the sixth-fewest points in the nation. Opponents are converting on just 22.22 percent of their third downs.
As for the biggest hurdles ahead for Oklahoma—which hasn't been to the playoff since 2019—Texas is one, to start. The Longhorns embarrassed Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry last year, winning 49-0. It marked the first time the Sooners were shut out against Texas since 1965. The two meet in Dallas on Oct. 7.
Oklahoma gets road trips to Kansas and Oklahoma State on Oct. 28 and Nov. 4, respectively. The Sooners then close the season with West Virginia (home), BYU (road) and TCU (home). Even if Oklahoma loses to Texas, the two could still meet in the Big 12 title game. Coming out victorious would just about guarantee a playoff bid if the Sooners have one loss or fewer.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
