NFL 2023 MVP Odds: Tips on the Favorites and Best Values for Week 2
The race for the NFL's 2023 MVP award took a few surprising twists in Week 1.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, now the league's highest-paid player, put up a dud against the rival Cleveland Browns, while Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs flopped without Travis Kelce.
The New York Jets lost quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the season when he suffered a torn Achilles on Monday night.
Fans looking to wager on the updated MVP odds have a lot to consider. We're here to sort through some of the latest developments and examine some of the top values entering Week 2.
Find the latest NFL MVP odds at DraftKings.
NFL MVP Favorites
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Patrick Mahomes +700 (bet $100 to win $700)
Tua Tagovailoa +700
Joe Burrow +750
Josh Allen +800
Jalen Hurts +1000
Justin Herbert +1200
Lamar Jackson +1500
Trevor Lawrence +1500
Avoid Josh Allen at Current Odds
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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen had a disaster of a night against the Jets on Monday. The two-time Pro Bowler tossed a trio of interceptions and lost a fumble.
"I hurt our team tonight. I cost our team tonight," Allen said after the game, per NFL.com's Kevin Patra.
While Allen isn't going to play a defense as good as New York's every week, his penchant for miscues isn't likely to disappear. Dating back to the start of the 2022 season, Allen has thrown 17 interceptions and fumbled 15 times.
Allen has had a mere three games without a turnover since Week 1 of last year. His style of play often hands the ball to the other team. As it did on Monday, it can also cost Buffalo wins.
While Allen is a tremendous talent, he's simply too mistake-prone to consider backing for MVP at +800 odds. The value simply doesn't outweigh the risk.
Target Trevor Lawrence While He Still Provides Value
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Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a tremendous value at +1500. While Lawrence did toss an interception in Week 1, he also threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 21 yards against the Indianapolis Colts.
It was a decent start for Lawrence, but he has the potential to be much, much better this season.
Consider the jump that Lawrence made in 2022. He was a borderline disaster under Urban Meyer as a rookie, However, under Doug Pederson, Lawrence saw a rise in passer rating of 23.3 points. According to NFL Research (h/t NFL.com's Grant Gordon), that's the largest increase in QB rating among qualifying quarterbacks in history.
Now with a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Calvin Ridley (101 yards, 1 TD in Week 1), Lawrence can continue getting better in Year 3. If he does, he'll be firmly in the MVP conversation at year's end.
With a Week 2 matchup against Mahomes and the Chiefs looming, now is the time to jump on Lawrence's current odds. Should he hang with or even out-duel Mahomes on Sunday, Lawrence will quickly jump to the top of the favorites list.
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Don't Sleep on Brock Purdy
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San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is a dark horse at +2500, but he may not remain a long shot for long. On Sunday, he became the first player in NFL history to win his first six regular-season starts while throwing at least two touchdown passes in every game.
Purdy has now gone 8-1 as a starter, including playoffs. His lone loss came after he was knocked out of the NFC title game with an elbow injury that required surgery.
At this point, Purdy's terrific performances aren't surprising. The 2022 seventh-round pick, who happens to have a 107.9 career QB rating, is legitimately good. There's nothing to suggest that Purdy won't continue performing at an elite level, barring another injury.
Purdy also happens to play for arguably the most complete team in football. He's going to spend plenty of time in the spotlight, and he has playmakers like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk on whom he can rely.
Plus, awards voters love a good story. Last year's Mr. Irrelevant becoming an MVP candidate in only his second season is a tremendous one. For those eyeing a long shot, these odds make Purdy an excellent Week 2 value.
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