2023 College Football Week 1 Upsets That Could Actually Happen
College football provides weekly hijinks. The moment you think you've got everything figured out, here comes a colossal curveball thrown with a pigskin right between the eyes.
Bettors know that's why there are big buildings and bright lights in Las Vegas.
So with the full slate of college football already getting cranked up last night, get ready for some upsets because they're coming, whether to your team or a rival near you. They're on their way, and some may just come this weekend.
Who are the most likely candidates to get toppled?
Several teams should be on upset alert. And while you may read this and think, "OMG, Brad is picking these upsets!!" think again. This isn't about upsets that will happen, but these certainly could. Mark them down if you want some intriguing weekend watches.
To make this list, a team had to be at least a six-point underdog and couldn't have played last night. The lines on DraftKings.com were taken on Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET.
Here are some upsets that could happen during Week 1, and a couple of high-profile teams need to be on top of their game to keep it from happening.
All times are Eastern.
Miami (Ohio) (+17) over Miami, 7 p.m. Friday
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If upsets come this week, we're looking closely at a MAC trifecta of games, and while this one may be the longest shot of them all, don't sleep on the RedHawks in the "Confusion Bowl."
Why is it called that? Because it's Miami against Miami, of course, and there has been plenty of smack talk this week, like RedHawks coach Chuck Martin saying, "We've got the far superior university."
Yikes. But, tongue as far out of cheek as possible, which Miami has the better football program right now? Of course, most believe it's the Hurricanes, but second-year coach Mario Cristobal's team did lose to Middle Tennessee last year, and there are still questions as he tries to rebuild The U.
Meanwhile, that Miami to the north finished 6-7 a year ago in what was supposed to be a big-time season before quarterback Brett Gabbert was lost for the year. Now, Gabbert is back, and big things are again expected.
With the way Cristobal has recruited, the pass-rushing talent, speed on both sides of the ball and the expectations that quarterback Tyler Van Dyke will return to his '21 form with a new offensive coordinator, this should be a game the Hurricanes handle.
But there are a lot of unknowns, and with Gabbert healthy, Miami (Ohio) isn't going to roll over and play dead.
Colorado (+20.5) over TCU, Noon Saturday
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If you think the hype surrounding Deion "Prime" Sanders' first season at Colorado is heavy now, just wait until if the Buffaloes pull the shocker of Week 1 and beat national runner-up TCU.
Is it likely to happen? Nah. Not as bad as Colorado was a season ago, don't bank on it. Also, coach Sonny Dykes' Horned Frogs gave us one of the best storybook runs of the past decade until they ran into a red-and-black buzzsaw in the national championship game.
But this is two ridiculously different teams than the ones that took the field a season ago, and that uncertainty makes the game one you have to circle as a potential upset possibility. Vegas certainly doesn't think so, though, by looking at the line.
TCU has a new quarterback in Chandler Morris, but he's one who everybody expected to lead the way a season ago until veteran Max Duggan made his Heisman Trophy run. Losing him, running back Kendre Miller and receiver Quentin Johnston is going to really hurt offensive continuity. Key defensive pieces left, too.
Sanders, meanwhile, flipped the roster. His son, Shedeur, came with him from Jackson State to play quarterback, and defensive backs Travis Hunter and Cormani McClain are as talented of a tandem as any in the nation.
Few give the Buffs a chance, and yes, it's a long shot. But it's a marquee game, and with so many unknowns, watch out. Nobody possibly could know what to think about this one enough to make TCU a three-touchdown favorite.
Northern Illinois (+8.5) over Boston College, Noon Saturday
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The reason for Northern Illinois' inclusion has much more to do with Boston College's season outlook than the Huskies'.
Following a disappointing 3-9 season, Northern Illinois isn't going to scare anybody. But coach Jeff Hafley's Eagles have so many question marks, it's difficult to feel good about their chances to do anything of any consequence this season, either.
Most likely, Boston College should get this win against a MAC opponent before the beginning of the ACC season, but it's no gimme. Though Harrison Waylee transferred to Wyoming, Northern Illinois should have a healthy rotation of running backs behind veteran quarterback and former Michigan State transfer quarterback Rocky Lombardi.
That doesn't bode well for the Eagles, who had a pitiful run defense a season ago.
They also couldn't run the ball themselves, which is a hallmark on Chestnut Hill. Too many more seasons like that and Hafley will go back to being an assistant somewhere.
Simply put, the Eagles have to prove they can move the ball offensively behind quarterback Emmett Morehead, who looks like a promising, young passer. While I don't think that will be enough of an issue to chalk up an L for the Eagles, it's not out of the question.
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North Texas (+6.5) over California, 4 p.m. Saturday
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The North Texas Mean Green made a fantastic hire plucking offensive coordinator Eric Morris from Washington State.
Now, the program should be super-excited to be hosting a Power Five opponent during Week 1 when the California Golden Bears come to town. I'm sure you're just as puzzled as I am about why a Pac-12 team is playing on the road at North Texas, but, hey, it's happening.
It's also the perfect concoction for a prime upset.
The Mean Green have question marks following star quarterback Austin Aune's departure to the NFL. But they have enough to keep it interesting against Cal, a program not known for scoring points and having to replace last year's starting signal-caller Jack Plummer, who left for Louisville. TCU transfer Sam Jackson V will be under center for the Bears.
Stone Earle is the new quarterback for the Mean Green, and weapons around him like running back Ayo Adeyi and receiver Roderic Burns will help, despite the loss of Jyaire Shorter (Auburn) and Var'Keyes Gumms (Arkansas).
Cal should go on the road and score enough points to beat the Mean Green and their mediocre defense, but Morris' team will score, too, and keep it very interesting.
Toledo (+9.5) over Illinois, 7:30 p.m. Saturday
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If you're an Illinois football fan, get ready to be grinding your teeth a little this weekend.
The Toledo Rockets have a lot of excitement surrounding this season with talent on both sides of the ball, led by the MAC's best defense.
Offensively, quarterback DeQuan Finn and a vaunted offensive line that loaded up in the transfer portal and already returned strong contributors have the horses to hang with an Illinois team that isn't known for lighting up the scoreboard.
Of course, coach Bret Bielema's team will win with defense again this year, but while All-American defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton returns to anchor a force that should keep the Rockets somewhat grounded, the secondary must replace three draft picks in Devon Witherspoon (No. 5), Jartavius Martin (No. 47) and Sydney Brown (No. 66).
Most importantly, the Illini must move on from vaunted defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, who left to become Purdue's head coach.
Nobody expects Toledo to light up the Illinois defense, but the Illini have question marks on offense with talented-but-new Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer starting at quarterback. This is going to be a grind-it-out game, and Toledo has enough weapons on both sides of the ball to hang.
South Alabama (+6.5) over Tulane, 8 p.m. Saturday
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Tulane's magical run a season ago culminated with a scintillating 46-45 stunner over USC in the Cotton Bowl, but coach Willie Fritz's team has had plenty of time to come down from that program-defining win.
Now, the Green Wave must replace AAC Offensive Player of the Year Tyjae Spears, which won't be an easy feat. It's a good thing quarterback Michael Pratt is back, and Fritz is one of the best game-day coaches who probably is just now getting on your radar because of the storybook '22 season.
The Green Wave should start the season 1-0 with a victory over South Alabama, but if you're sleeping on the Jaguars, you don't watch a lot of Group of Five football.
They were 10-3 a season ago in the Sun Belt under coach Kane Wommack, and much like Fritz, he is a terrific coach who should be in line for a bigger job very soon. The Jaguars ended the year with a disappointing bowl loss to Western Kentucky after narrowly missing the conference championship game, but it was a fantastic year, nonetheless.
It came out of nowhere, too, but that won't happen this year.
Quarterback Carter Bradley is excellent, and running back La'Damian Webb was a 1,000-yard rusher, too. This has the trappings of a great Week 1 game.
Tulane should come out with a chip on its shoulder after the Big 12 came after several American Athletic Conference teams and left the Green Wave behind, but will that mentality be enough to hold off an excellent opponent?
Coastal Carolina (+14.5) over UCLA, 10:30 p.m. Saturday
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There's really only one reason to think the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers—three years removed from being college football's Cinderella story during the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season—can hang with UCLA.
But it's a big reason: Grayson McCall.
Despite coach Jamey Chadwell leaving for Liberty, the record-setting Chanticleers signal-caller elected to stay in Conway, South Carolina, and that isn't good news for the Bruins.
Despite all the preseason hubbub surrounding true freshman Dante Moore and Kent State transfer Collin Schlee, Dorian Thompson-Robinson's backup last year (Ethan Garbers) won the starting job. With transfer running back Carson Steele in the backfield, coach Chip Kelly's offense should put up a ton of points against the Chants.
But...McCall, y'all.
With him under center, Coastal Carolina is going to create, going to do wild things, going to post points against a rebuilt Bruins defense. New Chants coach Tim Beck could get a signature win right away after coming over from his job as the North Carolina State offensive coordinator.
Again, this would be a big-time shocker if Coastal pulled it off, but UCLA has enough uncertainty to warrant a watch here. What an upset it would be.
San Jose State (+16.5) over Oregon State, 3:30 p.m. Sunday
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A week ago, nobody would have predicted the San Jose State Spartans could hang with Oregon State.
With DJ Uiagalelei named the starting signal-caller for the Beavers, an elite running game and a handful of difference-making defenders, coach Jonathan Smith's team could be even better than last year's 10-win team.
Big things are expected, and this could be an exciting season.
But during last weekend's 56-28 loss to USC, the Spartans proved they can score a ton of points with veteran quarterback Chevan Cordeiro running around making plays. Coach Brent Brennan has a bunch of weapons on offense, and SJSU should once again be a player in the Mountain West.
Hanging with a well-coached Beavers teams with quality athletes on both sides of the ball is a different story, yes, and it's even possible Oregon State is a better team than a Trojans team that is still searching for defensive answers.
Uiagalelei wowed everybody with his talent at Clemson but rarely produced on the field. It's certainly possible there could be some growing pains as he acclimates to his new teammates and surroundings.
Throw in the first-game hiccups and the fact that the Spartans already have played a game against a big-time opponent (and showed out on offense), and this an interesting opener for Smith's team. It may be the longest shot of them all but not out of the question.
Duke (+13) over Clemson, 8 p.m. Monday
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TCU, Washington and Tennessee stole some of the Duke Blue Devils' thunder a season ago, but pretty much nobody had the ACC perennial doormat going 9-4 last year.
When you throw in the fact they had a starting quarterback who was predominantly known for being a run-first guy in Riley Leonard and a first-year coach in Mike Elko, it may have been the turnaround of the year.
Now, Duke isn't going to sneak up on anybody.
The Blue Devils have some clout heading into Elko's second year, and Leonard has proved he's a dual-threat force who can beat you with his arm or legs. With offensive weapons around him and a defensive-minded head coach continuing to mold that side of the ball in his image, the Devils are dangerous.
Starting out with ACC champion Clemson isn't an easy task. The Tigers should have the league's best defense once again, anchored by linebackers Barrett Carter and Jeremiah Trotter Jr., and after plucking offensive coordinator Garrett Riley from TCU, he could develop Cade Klubnik nicely.
The Tigers need help in the trenches, though, and Duke could exploit that. A prime-time Labor Day matchup is a massive stage for the Blue Devils to prove they are more than a basketball school, and you should expect them to rise to the occasion.
All stats courtesy of CFBStats and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted. Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brad Shepard on Twitter, @Brad_Shepard.
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