B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 0
At long last, we have football.
We're not talking preseason games or scrimmages. We're talking about a smattering of games that will be delivered to us in the form of a glorious Week 0 in college football.
These games count, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. So what if they're not the biggest of the year. They are football games, and most importantly, they have point spreads.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
College football is back, and so are Locks of the Week. For the uninitiated, our CFB LOTW will come to you every week until a national champion is crowned.
Each week, the goal remains the same: Pick winners.
We will highlight meaningful football games and obscure football games. We will pick games against the spread, overs, unders and everything in between. Each pick, no matter how good or bad, will be tallied and assessed each week.
This is a season-long roller coaster, and we will ride it together. Last year, we delivered a winning year after a hot start. This year, the hope is to do the same.
With that, let the madness begin. Here are our Week 0 picks.
College football, we missed you.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday, August 23.
New Mexico State vs. UMass (Under 45)
Using data or statistics from the 2022 season is not something I will do much of. This is a new season with new players and coaches and systems, and we should treat it as such. Old data doesn't matter.
Well, mostly.
With that being said, UMass finished dead last in total offense last year—No. 131 of 131 teams. Defensively, however, the Minutemen took a nice leap forward under Don Brown in 2022, which is where this play starts to take shape.
For New Mexico State, Jerry Kill will want to run the ball. Starting with UMass certainly is an opportunity to ease into the season, and I expect we'll see just that with new faces on an offense that will feel this first game out.
The spread is only six-and-a-half, which is a tad surprising considering how much better New Mexico State played down the stretch. When you consider what type of game we're expected to get, though, it starts to make some sense.
This feels like a 24-10-type game. The clock will be moving, and the under will come in stress free.
Louisiana Tech (-11) vs. FIU
A football team that won a grand total of three games last season is a double-digit favorite to start, and it just feels right.
For as much of a struggle as last year was, the transfer portal was kind to Louisiana Tech. The addition of quarterback Hank Bachmeier was a big one.
Although Bachmeier was up and down at Boise State, his 2021 season provided plenty of glimpses. In this specific situation, he's a sizable upgrade.
While FIU beat La. Tech last year in a second overtime, its season wasn't exactly stellar. The offense struggled, and many of the pieces will now need to be replaced. It will likely take time, and the performance we see in Week 0 should be reflective of a program in flux.
This time around, the Bulldogs get the win. And they do so by at least two touchdowns in a game that should feature plenty of scoreboard movement.
Ohio (+2.5) at San Diego State
Ohio will make the long voyage to California, and it will do so as less than a field-goal underdog in a sneaky-good game.
With news that Kurtis Rourke is good to play after suffering a knee injury late last year, the Bobcats should score points. The 22-year-old is an experienced starter who is capable of beating teams with his arm and legs.
If Rourke is healthy, he could be a key outlier. He also has plenty of great pieces around him, which should help the transition back onto the field.
San Diego State, meanwhile, has been an excellent defensive team in recent years. Last season, the Aztecs finished No. 19 in the nation in scoring defense. In 2023, they lose significant pieces at every level, and it could be a problem out of the gate.
Week 0 delivers a close game and a mild upset in the opener. One of the MAC's most intriguing teams starts off with a bang.
Vanderbilt vs. Hawai'i (Over 55.5)
It's our first over of the year, and it feels right.
Last season, these two teams combined to score 73 points. Granted, Vanderbilt did the heavy lifting with 63 of those, but the over was easy cash regardless.
Hawai'i finished 2022 ranked No. 123 in scoring defense. Vanderbilt, which was a significantly improved program, finished No. 125. Granted, last season's statistics are, well, last year's statistics. We must state that again.
But neither defense is likely to improve dramatically, which could make for plenty of points.
We should see a much-improved offense from Hawai'i, which came into last year following an incredibly disruptive offseason. Quarterback Brayden Schager will be better in Year 2 under Timmy Chang.
In this game, we need more. Chances are that Vanderbilt won't hit the over by itself this year. But a 41-24 final score will do just fine.
Jacksonville State (+1) vs. UTEP
Oh, this team is fun.
If you like to watch quality football teams that are built on running the football, look no further than Jacksonville State.
Last year, the Gamecocks averaged more than 420 yards rushing per game, and many of the key cogs, including running back Zion Webb and leading rusher Anwar Lewis, return.
Now a member of Conference USA, the quality of competition is about to jump. And it will in this game against a UTEP squad that was largely competitive, even in losses, a season ago. The Miners were particularly strong on defense, and they'll provide a solid opening test.
But it just feels like Jacksonville State, which has been on the rise, will continue its ascension. While the conference leap won't always be easy, it will start on a positive.
The game will be tight, as expected, but Jacksonville State edges out a win.
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