B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Heisman
Betting on the Heisman is a journey.
Hundreds of voters who have individual biases and will ultimately decide a winner come December. The path to arrive at that moment, however, is chock full of ups, downs and everything in between.
When you commit to betting on this award, you know precisely what you're getting into. All will be won and lost a handful of times along the way, starting with the very first game.
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Here at Locks of the Week, we want to provide your Heisman betting portfolio with a slew of options. It's not just about picking a single player. That's not how we operate here. With great value to be had up and down the odds board, we're here to provide some options.
Here are Heisman bets for the upcoming season, with an eye on value.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Monday, August 21st.
The Pick: Michael Penix Jr. (+1600)
Although the Pac-12 saw a slew of transformations and breakout performances in 2022, Penix's performance was perhaps the most jarring.
Sure, Caleb Williams won the Heisman at USC. Bo Nix was also superb for Oregon. But Penix, who transferred from Indiana to Washington before the start of last year, found a rhythm that many, including myself, didn't think was possible.
Another year on campus with the same coaching staff should pay enormous dividends. As will having wideouts Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan back in the mix, who were tremendous a season ago.
Last fall, Penix led the nation in passing yards per game. He added 35 touchdowns. Both figures are poised to increase if he stays healthy. If he does, he should post video game numbers.
But can he (and Washington) win enough games? After all, winning football games is a necessity to win this award.
The Huskies will make trips to USC and Oregon State, and neither of those will be easy. Utah and Oregon will play at Washington, which produced a dominant home field advantage last year. That should be the case once more.
The production will be staggering, and his performance should improve. If the Huskies can win enough games—and I believe they will—Penix could find himself in New York City.
Slightly Off the Pack: J.J. McCarthy (+1800)
Unlike Penix, McCarthy will need a sizable statistical boost to play his way into Heisman consideration. That part is undeniable.
At times last year, McCarthy showcased an immensely high ceiling. At others, he looked like a true sophomore still trying to figure it out. As is, 27 total touchdowns and only five interceptions wasn't terrible. Simply put, more is out there.
This year, despite the incredible running backs returning, McCarthy will be asked to be a bigger piece. There's no reason he shouldn't respond with, well, more.
While the question surrounding Penix quickly turns to his team, that won't be an issue here. Michigan has a chance to win every single regular season game. If McCarthy can be the centerpiece for a College Football Playoff team, he has a shot.
Let's not forget what Heisman voting is about. Whether you like it or not, quarterbacks on winning teams are in a far greater position to win this award. While Georgia, Alabama and even Ohio State have questions at QB, Michigan does not.
Entering his junior season, expect a rapid increase in performance from McCarthy. The talent has never been in question; it's a matter of putting it altogether.
With so much going for this team and roster, it's reasonable to expect a dramatic uptick in 2023.
The Long Shot: Will Shipley (+6000)
At last, a running back.
While the award is unquestionably Heisman-centric, there are exceptions. Shipley, one of the most talented football players in college football, has the chance to produce a special season.
To do that, of course, he needs more touches. Over the past two seasons, Shipley simply wasn't given enough of them. Garrett Riley, Clemson's new offensive coordinator, is poised to change that.
At TCU last season, Riley helped his starting running back, Keandre Miller, score 18 touchdowns and accumulate more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage. Shipley is a more talented player than Miller, which is saying a lot. Miller was an outstanding college back.
Shipley ran for 1,182 yards last year. He also caught 38 passes, threw for a touchdown and was a factor on kickoff returns. His versatility is what makes him a fascinating bet to win the Heisman.
He also plays for a talented team poised to make the College Football Playoff. That's a significant factor as well. If Clemson wins the ACC—and I believe the Tigers will do just that—Shipley will likely be the key piece along the way.
It's an uphill climb for running backs, without question. But Shipley's impact on his team, in a new offense that should take full advantage of his advanced skill set, should be far greater.
The Long Shot (Part 2): Brock Bowers (+6500)
A tight end winning the Heisman? Yes, it's going to take an assortment of developments to transpire. But let's go down the rabbit hole.
For starters, Bowers' Heisman campaign is well underway. It started when he dominated as a true freshman, and it's been building two national championships later. Georgia's star tight end is an absolute star in the eyes of the media, and for good reason. In that sense, he's already ahead of so many others.
If you're making this bet, you're doing so by abandoning the statistics argument. Granted, Bowers has those, too.
Last season, he caught 63 passes for 942 yards and seven touchdowns. He also added three rushing touchdowns on only nine carries, averaging a ridiculous 12.1 yards per rush.
Granted, when stacked up against the quarterbacks, a tight end's resume will likely look insignificant. But Bowers represents something more than an elite player on an elite team. He is a way for ambitious voters to rebel against a QB-heavy voting structure.
Beyond the value, this bet represents something else: sweet, sweet chaos.
If you're tired of the way the Heisman is decided, what a ride this will be. While it's unlikely, and the odds speak to that, a special season for Georgia and the best tight ends in recent memory could provide a much-needed shakeup. What a journey it would be.
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