Contract Predictions for All Top 2012 NFL Free Agents

As I've said a few times previously, NFL free agency is a year-round affair.

Teams don't just gear up come January and February when their season ends. Much like scouting for the NFL draft, scouting free agents is done all year.

A team knows from the moment free agency starts who it wants and how much it's willing to pay.

Sometimes this leads to some bad decisions, or at least decisions that focus resources on one area of a team while leaving others a little thin.

We saw this with the pursuit of Nnamdi Asomugha last year, when both the Eagles and Jets were so focused on the former Raider that they let other holes in their teams remain a problem.

It may be true that "scared money don't make none," but I'd also counter that sometimes "bold money makes poor choices."

Sometimes buying the best player isn't always the wisest use of resources.

Without a doubt, there are some tremendous players to be had in the 2012 round of free-agency bidding. Some of them will remain with their current teams, and some will take their talents to new destinations.

All of them will make bank.

To come up with these numbers and check who's available as best I can, I pulled info from several sites.

Rotoworld has pretty solid information about current player contracts on every player's page, so I perused them to double-check myself as well as gauge what other top players at a position have been paid so I'm not pulling numbers completely out of thin air.

KFFL has some pretty comprehensive lists on players heading into free agency, and it keeps them pretty up to date.

If there's one thing I've learned researching this, it's that there are very few sites that are looking ahead yet.

I will look at each position group and give you an idea of how the best of the best are going to get paid.

And then because I am sick in the head, I'll occasionally give you a player who's going to be way overpaid and/or a value player who can be gotten cheaper but still provides tremendous upside.

Quarterbacks

The top shelf of this group is very easy to see because Drew Brees is far and away the best here.

Good luck getting him away from the New Orleans Saints, though.

Brees is made $7,393,500 in 2011, pretty much on par with fellow elite QBs Aaron Rodgers ($7.25 million this year) and Peyton Manning ($3.4 million and a $3 million roster bonus), but a little behind Tom Brady (earning $5.75 million and $4 million roster bonus) and guys like Tony Romo ($810,000 and $8.19 million signing bonus), Philip Rivers ($8.4 million) and Eli Manning ($8.5 million).

All of those quarterbacks are in the middle of their contracts, which means they will escalate—sometimes considerably—in the next few years. Eli Manning's deal is a seven-year, $106.9 million contract with, according to Rotoworld, $35 million guaranteed.

It's safe to say that Brees is going to get paid.

A five- to seven-year contract (even at age 32) is probably going to be the length, while between $9 and $10 million a year average makes a lot of sense. The biggest question will be how much is guaranteed and the size of the signing bonus, both of which could radically change what he really makes versus what he signs for.

Given Brees' attachment to New Orleans and current contracts that elite (and not quite elite) QBs have, it's way too cost prohibitive to pry him away from the Saints.

Other contracts we'll see will include current Green Bay backup Matt Flynn wildly overpaid—think Kevin Kolb's six-year, $65 million contract—while the Raiders might pay Jason Campbell too much to stick around with Carson Palmer throwing scads of picks and the cupboard dry of trade bait. Certainly he'll make more than the $4.5 million he made this year.

For a quarterback value pick, I'd go with Kyle Orton. While Orton isn't a top quarterback by any stretch, he can move the chains and in the right offense be fairly productive. He bombed in Denver this year, but part of that was a bad fit with the new Denver offense. He's a good caretaker with the upside to do a bit more, and he can likely be had cheap.

After nobody beat his or the Broncos' door down last off season and there were few suitors when he was cut, Orton's cost has dropped considerably. Figure a shorter contract—maybe three years max, probably with an out clause—that is likely a bit south of his original 2011 contract ($7.379 million with a $1.5 million roster bonus) but more than fellow placeholder Matt Hasselbeck's $3 million.

Somewhere in the neighborhood of $5-6 million with some performance escalators sounds about right. For that money I think Orton would be a bargain.

Running Backs

This category has more than a few running backs that could be considered top-shelf free agents.

Let's start with the guys who will probably remain where they are. Arian Foster is woefully underpaid, but the Texans don't seem worried about getting him a new contract, and he doesn't seem to care either.

As pointed out in that ProFootballTalk article, Foster could very well get franchised in 2012 or at least get a high free-agency tender since he's a restricted free agent anyway.

One hopes the Texans do right by the guy, but I echo Florio's concern that Foster may end up hurt before he ends up paid.

Matt Forte is a great example of that, losing four games this year to injury and possibly giving the Bears an excuse to cheap out and tag him rather than lock up their biggest weapon long-term. Apparently the Bears have the cap money to franchise him, earning the first-time Pro Bowler just $7.7 million next year.

It's also unlikely that Ray Rice moves on despite being an unrestricted free agent. It's clear to me that the Ravens understand what they have in the diminutive running back, and I could see him make something in the range of Chris Johnson's six-year, $55.26 million contract. I'd actually say he's a safer bet to perform after signing it than Johnson was and think it'd be smart money.

The last truly top-shelf talent at running back is Seattle's Marshawn Lynch, and it's going to take more than boatloads of Skittles to pry him from Pete Carroll.

First of all, he's inclined to stay if they come with a good offer. Second, I think the Seahawks, like the Ravens, know what they have in the veteran back. While he far surpassed his 2010 numbers and performed well in a contract year, his numbers were reminiscent of his early Bills days before his head got in the way of his talent.

Lynch seems to have matured, and I believe the team will reward his dedication. They might build in an escape hatch in case it goes south, but don't be shocked if Seattle locks him up for five years at a price tag in the neighborhood of $40 million or so—below guys like Johnson and Darren McFadden but plenty of pay to keep Lynch happy without killing the bank.

For this group I went with a value pick, and for that I am looking at potential former Cleveland Brown Peyton Hillis. Hillis wore on his teammates this season as he pined for a new contract while rumors swirled that some of his missed games were because he wasn't getting that contract.

With his situation in Cleveland up in the air, the time is right for a team to swoop in and steal him. Perhaps his former team the Denver Broncos? They need a running back to pair with Willis McGahee, and Knowshon Moreno has proven to not be that guy. Hillis' attitude might make the Browns hesitant to pay him, while other GMs could offer more, though still pay him less than his talent is worth because of his 2011 issues.

At worst, they have an excuse to put some caveats in that contract.

Hillis is a very good back, but he had a season that will probably prevent him from getting paid like one. Someone is going to get tremendous value here.

Wide Receivers

As with the running backs, there is plenty of top-shelf talent here, but some of that talent is likely to remain where it is now.

For example, Wes Welker is an unrestricted free agent, but as cheap as he has been, the Patriots can probably bring him back with a reasonable contract far below something like the eight-year, $128 million contract of a Larry Fitzgerald. More likely is something in the ballpark of Santonio Holmes' five year, $45.25 million ($24 million guaranteed) contract.

Welker might be worth more to another team, but Pats don't leave very often, especially ones who will have Tom Brady lobbying them to stay.

Marques Colston might be tempted to leave, but his injury history could limit his value on the open market, and it's hard to leave an offense that throws so much when you're a great wide receiver.

Of the players who are more likely to move, two stand out as very good talents who could cash in this year. Both also come with risk.

Vincent Jackson has not enjoyed his time in San Diego, and with GM A.J. Smith returning, I find it very likely he will head out of town. I'm not even sure that the Chargers could keep him even if they overpaid him. The staredown between Smith and Jackson was that bad.

There are teams who will pay him, though, and pay him well. Plenty of teams need a No. 1 wideout, and Jackson is certainly that when healthy. Someone will certainly pay him in the area of a five-year, $50-60 million contract. That's a little higher than another troubled receiver named Brandon Marshall got when he left Denver and re-signed with Miami, but not at the same level as a guy like Fitzgerald.

DeSean Jackson hurt himself quite a bit this year, and while it's feasible the Eagles bring him back, they probably won't pay him what he wants. That said, someone will overpay for him, and you could see a team look past his attitude and the plays he quit and become enamored of the talent only. I could see someone risking a five-year, $60 million or $70 million contract on him.

It'd be too risky for my blood, but I can see it happening.

I have two value picks for this group.

First, there is Reggie Wayne. The Colts could bring him back despite the huge problems they have across the board. If Peyton Manning returns, Wayne is a strong possibility to return as well.

That said, I'm not sure that 1) Manning returns and 2) the new Colts front office will pay for an aging vet when Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon can play just as well at this point—perhaps better.

Wayne could definitely help a team looking for a strong possession receiver to complement a vertical threat and probably could pay him not much more than the $5.95 million he made in 2011. Wayne still has plenty left in the tank, even if it's not as high-octane as it used to be. A two- to three-year contract with minimal guaranteed money could make both Wayne and a new team very happy.

Second is Robert Meachem. While the Saints might like to keep him around, he's not so vital that they will pay him what he could be worth. Plenty of teams could use a young, vertical threat who is also a solid player in the red zone, and they'd all have more work to offer than a Saints team where he is clearly behind at least Colston and tight end Jimmy Graham.

I could certainly see him sign a three- to five-year contract worth $20-30 million at the very most.

Tight Ends

While it's possible the Green Bay Packers throw a franchise tag on Matt Flynn, that's an awful lot of money to pay a backup. It's more likely, in my opinion, that they tag tight end Jermichael Finley, and while he'd rather have a long-term contract, he says he's OK with a tag instead.

That attitude makes sense since he'll still make a lot of money, while the team makes sure that his somewhat less than expected year is not the norm. It's a win-win.

Fred Davis is another player who might have a big payday if 1) the Redskins don't throw a Brinks truck at him and 2) teams will overlook his four-game suspension for violating the league's drug policy. Davis is a big-time talent, and I think the Skins can't afford to let him go.

I do wonder if Davis might be interested in going somewhere that has a better chance of winning.

That aside, I could see either the 'Skins or another team look to cash in on a stud tight end in the making (or form a copycat of the Pats' Two-Tight End Set of Doom ©) and Davis make money like what Zach Miller did when he signed with the Seahawks—before they turned him into the most overpaid blocking fullback in the history of the NFL.

A five-year, $30-35 million contract (with some protection against more violations) makes a lot of sense to me, and while it has risk, I think Davis is worth the cash.

Offensive Line

Carl Nicks heads a pretty good class of offensive linemen this offseason, and I think it's notable that when he signed his one-year contract with the Saints in August, he didn't seem to think a long-term deal was imminent at the time and felt that while there might have been interest, the high price tag of a first-round tender kept teams away.

With Jahri Evans signing a big deal in 2010, I don't see the Saints paying another guard big money. I could see a team in desperate need of offensive line help—such as the Jets—being willing to pay him well for his services.

A four- to five-year contract in the neighborhood of $30-40 million is entirely possible for a player who is one of the better guards in the league.

A potential value pick could be Colts center Jeff Saturday. As with Reggie Wayne, Saturday's availability could hinge on whether Peyton Manning returns. Assuming that either he doesn't or the new front office refuses to pay an aging center (and assuming he doesn't retire), Saturday could be an excellent addition to an offensive line transitioning, perhaps with a young quarterback in need of an experienced hand to guide it from center.

Of course, he'd be cheap too. I can't imagine seeing him get more than a one- to two-year contract for possibly $2-3 million a year.

Defensive Line

My favorite defensive lineman in free agency is Arizona defensive end Calais Campbell, but he's a top priority for the Cardinals this offseason, and if they can't come to terms, expect a franchise tag to be applied.

I could certainly see something like Julius Peppers' six-year, $84 million contract for Campbell, though the guaranteed money won't be as good.

With Campbell likely off the radar, expect a bidding war to commence for Cliff Avril's services. The Lions seem able to rush the passer with all sorts of combinations from the defensive line, and with Ndamukong Suh and now Nick Fairley coming along, they might be happy to let Avril move along.

Other franchises are noticing how good he is, and it isn't hard to imagine him fetching a nice price on the open market.

If Campbell is worth a Peppers-like contract, Avril will be looking at a slightly less lucrative amount, and I could see him net around $50 million for five years with some nice escalators in there.

My overpaid pick of the group is Sione Pouha of the New York Jets. Pouha has been a very productive starter for them this year, but he's no lights-out talent. However, the Jets have little depth on their front seven and will have to pay to keep him if anyone has any interest.

I think there will be just enough interest from other teams to raise the money higher than the Jets should pay, though they will be forced to match because they are so thin.

Don't get me wrong—I actually like Pouha a bunch. I just think the Jets might end up paying him more than he's worth just because they have to.

Linebackers

Even at 36, London Fletcher is likely to see the most interest on the free-agency market. The Redskins have made him a priority signing, and he should be. The question is how much he can make.

He should easily see money in the area of Patrick Willis' contract, though length will be a lot shorter due to age. Still, a $7-10 million a year contract with a chunk of it guaranteed feels right for a guy who is competing at a tremendously high level.

My value pick for this group is Dallas' Anthony Spencer. While he hasn't been as good as the Cowboys hoped, he's a solid left-side OLB who is very good against the run and can pressure the quarterback. While he is helped by having DeMarcus Ware across from him, I think he could be just as effective paired with another good outside linebacker who falls short of Ware.

I believe Spencer will not get a lot of play in the market but will likely have one or two ardent suitors while the Cowboys sit back and wait to see if they can swoop in and get him on the cheap.

I could see him getting signed for a three- to four-year contract in the neighborhood of $20 million or so.

Defensive Backs

There are a few interesting names here at both cornerback and safety.

At safety, LaRon Landry looks poised to be tagged by the Redskins after two injury-shortened seasons. If he can stay on the field, Landry is a very productive player, but he's been unable to. The franchise tag might be the best for both sides, as Landry can prove he is able to stay on the field and the Redskins don't risk paying him too much and seeing him hurt again.

The cornerbacks are a more intriguing lot.

Brent Grimes had a good 2010 but followed it up with an injury-plagued 2011. He has the ability to be a very good corner but will have to prove that the 2010 season wasn't a lark. However, with the league shifting into a pass-happier-than-normal place this year, corners are in high demand, and someone will look past the knee issues that he suffered in 2011.

I could see someone taking a chance on him and paying him a little short of Antonio Cromartie's four-year, $32 million contract. Somewhere between $20-25 million seems likely.

Cortland Finnegan is a strong run-stopper and has played well in coverage. The Titans don't seem poised to sign him again, although a franchise tag for a year isn't out of the question. It's not cheap though (the linked article puts it at between $10.2 million and $10.5 million for a year), and it doesn't sound like Finnegan would be too keen on that.

“I would be very upset with that. Very upset,” he told The Tennessean.

If they don't retain his services, he'll probably pull in something along the amount of the aforementioned Cromartie's contract—higher than Grimes because he doesn't have the injury woes, though perhaps Grimes is the better value.

Speaking of value, or value picks, I think Terrell Thomas could be had on the cheap after a season-ending torn ACL. It's possible that he merely signs a one-year contract with the Giants, but if he checks out medically, I believe someone should jump on him and roll the dice.

He's a fantastic run-stopper who plays very physical on the perimeter and is also more than serviceable in coverage. You can never have too many corners, and Thomas will be looking to prove his worth. It would be worth some team's time to make him a one- or two-year offer with a potential for extension if he plays well.

He should be able to be had for a couple million a year, maybe just a bit more. If he's healthy, I think he's worth way more than that.