How Realignment Could Change CFB Playoff and Boost the Dominance of Two Conferences
In less than two weeks, the hysteria surrounding realignment will finally subside. Actual college football games—the reason many tolerate the direction the sport is barreling toward—will take center stage.
There will be upsets and missed extra points and a smattering of ridiculousness every Saturday, just like always. It will feel chaotic and comforting. More importantly, it will feel very normal.
While we still naturally step back into this ritual, the damage of the latest run of realignment has been done. The reality is simple: 12 months from now, things will be different for all parties. Pandora's box has been opened.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
College football is quickly morphing into something closer to the NFL, which is not something most college football fans want to process. In a matter of years, it will have its own version of AFC and the NFC, and it will come neatly packaged as the SEC and the Big Ten.
In speaking to Amie Just of the Lincoln Journal Star, Trev Alberts, Nebraska's athletics director, painted a bleak picture for those looking for stability in college athletics.
"History is unkind to conferences that have not had the courage to expand," he said.
"I don't believe it's done. It's never been done. It's more likely than not that there will be continued periods of angst. I believe that the next go-around—that's my basic conclusion—will be far more disruptive than anything we're currently engaged in. We need to prepare ourselves mentally for that."
Before we move forward, let's take inventory. In 2024, USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington will join the Big Ten. The SEC will add Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 12 will lose its two biggest brands but add Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado.
And the Pac-12, which is soon-to-be the Pac-4? It's too soon to say.
Alberts is correct in noting that realignment isn't done. Oregon State, Washington State, Stanford and Cal need something more than what they have right now—a new home or new competition. Whether the Pac-12 officially implodes or partners with another conference is still to be determined. Further change is a necessity.
Survival is still a theme for many. For the Big Ten and the SEC, they will now operate in a position of dominance until further notice.
At 18 schools scattered across the map, the Big Ten has become a national league in a matter of 14 months. The decision to head West hasn't been well-received by all. But from a sheer business standpoint, the conference has strengthened its position.
The SEC, meanwhile, will increase to 16 programs next year. The additions of Texas and Oklahoma, two nationally recognized bluebloods with strong CFB histories, will only elevate the reputation of the nation's most dominant entity.
In total, these two conferences will include 34 programs in all. Think about that for a moment.
While we've gotten numb to the additions, the accumulation has mounted in recent years.
Of those 34 schools, 15 will begin the 2023 season ranked in the recently released preseason AP Poll. More significantly, eight of the preseason top 10 will play in the Big 10 or SEC starting next fall.
Clemson and Florida State are the only two schools outside this conference positioned inside the top 10. For the foreseeable future, this theme is likely to continue.
In fact, it will almost certainly extend into the season and infiltrate college football's shiny new postseason. A 12-team College Football Playoff will debut in 2024 with an altered format, putting the six highest-ranked conference champions in the playoff along with six at-large teams.
Or so we think. With the Pac-12's near future now very much in doubt, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is looking at the playoff's format differently.
"Even here in the SEC, we wanted to see college football be strong nationally," Sankey said recently. "And we have not seen a west-of-the-Rockies participant in the playoff since, I believe, 2016. So, the expansion was about making sure we brought in western football. Well, now what's happened is western football has come into other conferences. The net of that is that circumstances have changed, and I think it's wise for us to take a step back and reconsider what the format might look like given these changing circumstances."
How the postseason treats the Pac-12, if it ultimately exists, is to be determined. Given how much movement has only recently transpired, there's much to sort through.
An adjusted playoff format like the one currently in place—essentially a larger pool of the "most deserving" at-large teams—would become an infomercial for the two conferences.
If that's where we're heading, and both conferences are likely to push for this because it's in their own best interests to do so, the separation will go larger.
The Big 12 will certainly exist, and the mix of teams about to enter the conference is compelling. At the very least, it won't be boring.
The Mountain West and American Athletic Conference and others will continue to deliver compelling football for fans of individual schools and the sport as a whole.
College football won't suddenly become a two-conference sport. Quality, interesting football will continue to be played elsewhere. While the regionalization of CFB is being completely deconstructed, support for schools and other conferences will still exist.
This sport is by no means dying, and do not let anyone tell you otherwise.
But it is evolving, and the timing could only emphasize a greater shift. With a greater emphasis soon to be placed on the postseason, regardless of format, the Big Ten and the SEC are primed to lead a new top-heavy wave of college football.
This is not meant to prop the Big Ten or the SEC into some elite football stratosphere.
The whole notion of conference bragging rights and superiority is tiresome.
No, this is something different. It is simply acknowledging that both conferences mastered the latest movement and economics at a time when they needed to be conquered.
To some, that might not matter. Perhaps the purity of football can drown out everything else, just like it will soon. Even still, the effect will eventually be felt.
As regional loyalty wanes, a new future is taking shape. As it stands today, still a year out from college football's great migration, that future starts with the Big Ten and the SEC.
After that, it's everybody else.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
