Most Impactful X-Factors for the 2023 College Football Season
When consensus builds about high-level contenders in the 2023 college football season, commonalties begin to emerge.
Some of the storylines, including new coaches and quarterbacks, are typical. Nevertheless, these are vital parts of any campaign and will be tracked at Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State and more.
Other topics are player- or team-specific issues. Utah is hoping that quarterback Cam Rising is fully healthy, while certain positions at Notre Dame and LSU have question marks.
Although the term "X-factor" has no absolute definition, it's a handy word to help describe key variables we'll be watching in the fall.
The list is subjective but aims to cover—and, in some cases, group—the biggest uncertainties for perceived top-15 teams.
Cam Rising's Recovery
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During the Rose Bowl last year, Cam Rising exited with a torn ACL. There's never a good time for a severe injury, but it meant Utah's longtime quarterback might not be ready for the start of the 2023 season.
The good news is Utah coaches have continually expressed a positive outlook on Rising's recovery this offseason.
But we still aren't certain he'll be cleared for the opener.
In some seasons, that wouldn't necessarily be a problem. Many programs kick off a campaign as a heavy favorite against a Group of Five or lower-division team. Utah, though, doesn't ease into the campaign; the Utes host Florida before traveling to Baylor.
Utah faces a brutal schedule overall, so there's no guarantee the team will contend for a national title anyway. That goal becomes exponentially tougher if the Utes open the season without Rising.
LSU's Rebuilt Secondary
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Last season, eight players made up the rotation in LSU's secondary. The unit put together a decent year and served an integral role in the upset of Alabama, holding Bryce Young to just 6.4 yards per attempt.
But this defensive backfield will be quite different in 2023.
Longtime safety Greg Brooks Jr. is back, and Major Burns may retain his starting job alongside the veteran. Otherwise, the Tigers will be relying on a bunch of transfers.
At cornerback, Zy Alexander (Southeastern) is making the leap from the FCS. Duce Chestnut (Syracuse) brings experience, but JK Johnson (Ohio State) and Denver Harris (Texas A&M) aren't proven at this level. Andre Sam (Tulane) is another name to know at safety.
The problem is, like Utah, LSU doesn't have the luxury of an adjustment period. September's slate includes Florida State and a three-game run against Mississippi State, Arkansas and Ole Miss.
LSU needs its revamped secondary to excel immediately.
Notre Dame's Offense
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When a quarterback of Sam Hartman's caliber transfers to Notre Dame, the natural reaction is imagining the best-case scenario.
After all, the program had notched five straight 10-win years before tallying nine victories last season. Plus, the Fighting Irish overcame a poor six-game start to Marcus Freeman's tenure with a 6-1 record down the stretch. Optimism is understandably high in South Bend.
This offense, however, will be tested repeatedly.
Notre Dame hosts Ohio State and USC in September and October, respectively, and heads to Clemson in November. That trifecta is merely the preseason betting favorites in the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC.
Hartman is a tremendous asset, but this scoring attack—one with an unproven receiving corps—will determine ND's upside.
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Michigan's Passing Game
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J.J. McCarthy assembled a high-quality 2022 season and helped Michigan win a second straight Big Ten championship with another trip to the College Football Playoff.
Once again, though, the offense's limitations stung at the worst time.
Georgia overwhelmed the Wolverines in the 2021 CFP semifinals, holding Cade McNamara to just 106 yards with two interceptions in 19 attempts. TCU then snagged a pair of pick-sixes off McCarthy in the 2022 semis to stop Jim Harbaugh's squad just shy of a national title appearance.
Michigan should again have a terrific rushing attack, and that's absolutely good enough to contend for another Big Ten crown.
But for the Wolverines to truly chase a championship, the passing game needs to be more effective in the biggest games.
First-Year Starting QBs
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Pull up any preseason ranking, and it's a safe bet you'll see Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State and Tennessee. They're probably all listed as top-15 teams, too.
And each of them has a fresh face at quarterback.
The known starters are Cade Klubnik (Clemson), Drew Allar (PSU) and Joe Milton III (Tennessee). The other programs don't have a clear QB1, although Carson Beck (UGA) and Kyle McCord (Ohio State) are seemingly the front-runners at their respective spots.
Alabama is the lone member of the group with an unclear competition; 2022 backup Jalen Milroe, Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner and former top prospect Ty Simpson are the main contenders in Tuscaloosa.
For various reasons—recruiting billing, past performance in limited reps, team talent, etc.—these players are generally expected to perform well as new full-time starters in 2023.
We won't actually have that answer until September and beyond, however, and no player affects a team more than the quarterback.
New OCs at Contenders
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As if a new quarterback isn't enough of a variable, first-year coordinators may also be installing an unfamiliar offensive system.
In many situations, there is an overlap—especially if a head coach is returning. He'll have preferences and tendencies that persist. But a handful of well-respected programs have a different play-caller in town.
Alabama brought in Tommy Rees from Notre Dame, which then promoted Gerad Parker to the position. Georgia's Todd Monken left for the NFL's Baltimore Ravens, so Mike Bobo is getting another shot in Athens. Clemson hired Garrett Riley, who oversaw TCU's surge in 2022.
Ohio State is also deciding whether Ryan Day will continue calling plays or that responsibility goes to new coordinator Brian Hartline. Joey Halzle is taking that role at Tennessee. Oregon hired Will Stein from UTSA.
And the list goes on and on.
Monken's influence played a sizable part in Georgia's recent success. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix's resurgent year in 2022 can be partially attributed to former coordinator Kenny Dillingham, and now he's gone. You get the picture, right?
Players ultimately decide the game, but the potency of an offensive system is a serious factor, too.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
