Predicting the Next Wave of NBA Stars to Request a Trade
The astronomical map of NBA stars is constantly being redrawn.
That's due in part to the perpetually changing ranks of both falling and rising stars. It's also because star movement across the basketball galaxy is anything but uncommon.
Just ask Damian Lillard and James Harden, the league's latest stars requesting—and now awaiting—a scenery change. Or ask the myriad elites before them who made known their relocation desires.
Or you could even ask the following five players, who loom as the likeliest name-brand ballers to be the next to stars who demand a ticket out of their current digs.
Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
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Back in April, ESPN's Tim MacMahon brought word of a "fear" existing within the Dallas Mavericks organization that Luka Dončić "could consider requesting a trade as soon as the summer of 2024 if Dallas doesn't make significant progress by then."
It's conceivable the 24-year-old may not even wait that long, since the Mavericks, who didn't even make the play-in tournament this past season, could once again struggle to gain traction in the competitive Western Conference.
Dallas' offseason has been a bit of a mixed bag. Re-signing Kyrie Irving was a must, but anyone claiming to know what Uncle Drew's future holds is being willfully ignorant about his past. The Mavs got Grant Williams on a good deal, but he's more of a helpful role player than a difference-maker. Signing Seth Curry was puzzling; he's a good player, but this team desperately needed defense, not an undersized scoring guard.
What is Dallas' plan to enter the championship conversation? The Mavs went 5-11 when Dončić and Irving played together last season, so counting on them alone to figure this out is asking a lot. Can they afford to wait on the growth of Josh Green, Jaden Hardy, Dereck Lively II and Olivier-Maxence Prosper, or will they trade what little youth they have for established talent?
Dallas is in a tough spot, which is where no team with a megastar of Dončić's ilk should ever wind up. The Mavs have rarely resembled a championship contender during his five-year tenure—they have as many series wins as lottery trips (two apiece)—and if he can't see their vision coming together, he may soon want out of it entirely.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
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Alarm sirens might be nearing a deafening pitch around the Philadelphia 76ers. If things weren't bad enough with Harden wanting out, they may have shifted to red-alert status based upon recent comments from reigning MVP winner Joel Embiid.
"I just want to win a championship, whatever it takes," Embiid said at the Uninterrupted Film Festival (h/t Philly Voice). "I don't know where that's going to be, whether it's in Philly or anywhere else."
That first sentence is boilerplate talk for an NBA star. That second one, though, might shake this franchise to its core.
While it doesn't automatically mean Embiid is crafting an exit strategy, it at least puts pressure on a front office already feeling the heat of Harden's trade demand. If nothing else, it should silence any talk about next season being a gap year for the franchise. Maybe the Sixers' decision-makers are willing to wait an uncomfortable amount of time for a resolution on Harden's situation, but Embiid clearly isn't.
He wants to contend right now, as he absolutely should. While he struggled at times in the playoffs—while navigating around a knee injury—his regular-season work was extraordinary. He captured a second consecutive scoring title with a career-high 33.1 points per game. He also became the first player to average 30 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists and 1.5 blocks in multiple seasons. (Hall of Famers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bob McAdoo are the only other players to ever hit those marks.)
He belongs in the championship race. If he doesn't think the Sixers can get him there, he'll have to start searching for a club that can.
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls
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Trade winds swirling around Zach LaVine would be nothing new. His being the one who initiates those talks would be a novel twist, though.
In June, Yahoo Sports' Jake Fischer reported the Chicago Bulls were "quietly gauging" LaVine's trade market. With some knee issues in his past and a boatload of money tethered to his future, he is a logical trade candidate should Chicago ever decide to pull the plug on this core.
Then again, he might want to force the issue before this front office is ready to make that concession.
The same presumably low ceiling that could give the organization some pause might also be motivation for LaVine to want out. He is a supremely skilled player—one of only seven to average at least 23 points, four assists and four rebounds each of the past five seasons—but a lack of team success stains his stat sheet in the eyes of many.
He has played nine NBA seasons, and only one of them included a postseason trip. And that journey (taken with the 2021-22 Chicago Bulls) spanned all of five games. For some, that's reason enough to tag LaVine with the "good numbers on bad teams" label. Maybe that has some merit, or perhaps he just hasn't sniffed out the right situation yet.
Things look bleak enough for the Bulls, who've gone 59-65 since Lonzo Ball last suited up, that LaVine's reputation could be further damaged by extending his Windy City stay. Asking out of Chicago might be his best shot at finding team success that has eluded him thus far.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
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It wasn't that long ago when it seemed Karl-Anthony Towns had 10,000-odd lakes at his disposal as the epicenter of the Minnesota Timberwolves franchise. But those days are officially behind the top pick of the 2015 draft.
Anthony Edwards, who recently inked a max extension, is now the unofficial governor of the Gopher State. Rudy Gobert, Towns' ill-fitting frontcourt partner, will collect more coin than Towns this season, as he did last season. One could even argue that Jaden McDaniels means more to Minnesota's long-term future than Towns.
Times have changed for the Timberwolves, and quite possibly in ways Towns might be less than thrilled about. Since 2020-21—Edwards' rookie season—Towns has seen significant reductions in his field-goal attempts (17.5 to 14.8) and usage percentage (29.1 to 25.6). He was also kicked out of the center spot to make room for Gobert and promptly posted the worst net differential of his career (plus-1.4, his first mark under plus-4.0 since 2016-17).
The Timberwolves are clearly focused on doing what they think is best for the franchise, and that is absolutely their prerogative. But that doesn't mean Towns has to agree with the decisions or want to be part of this plan any longer.
Like LaVine, a former teammate of Towns, his reputation has taken a hit for a lack of playoff success. For someone with such a lofty (distorted?) view of his own legacy, he might conclude he can't take these reputation hits any longer.
Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
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Trade winds have swirled in close proximity to Trae Young for a while now.
Last December, rival executives wondered aloud whether the prolific point guard would be "the next player on a rookie max extension to request a trade if the team doesn't make inroads come postseason time," per B/R's Chris Haynes. Then in April, The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported that the Atlanta Hawks front office had been given the green light "to do whatever it wants with the roster," including trading Young.
Atlanta's second consecutive first-round exit couldn't have done anything to quiet any trade talks. The Hawks have had trouble finding their footing since their Eastern Conference Finals breakthrough in 2021, and that's rarely a situation that lends itself to stability.
Atlanta is attempting to retool on the fly. In the last calendar year, the franchise has paid a fortune to acquire Dejounte Murray (three firsts and a first-round pick swap), changed head coaches (Nate McMillan out, Quin Snyder in) and let go of longtime rumor-mill resident John Collins for dirt cheap (Rudy Gay and a future second-rounder).
And the Hawks may not be done. They've been trying to pave a path to Pascal Siakam, but no trade hasn't happened yet. If one ever does, the cost figures to be significant, and since Siakam is on an expiring deal, it might only be for a rental.
If that's not the answer, though, what is? The Hawks have some intriguing young players, but is Young ready to wait for their development? More importantly, is he sold on Murray as his co-star? Both work best with the ball in their hands, and neither had a great shooting season in 2022-23.
Atlanta's outlook is somewhere between murky and mediocre. It takes gobs of optimism and a hearty helping of imagination to picture the Hawks crashing the championship conversation this coming season. If Atlanta has wondered whether this mix is right, it's reasonable to assume Young could be having the same thoughts.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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