Betting Guide for Capital One's the Match VIII: Mahomes-Kelce vs. Curry-Thompson
Capital One's The Match VIII is set to tee off on Thursday evening, an event that will pit a pair of NFL stars in Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce against NBA counterparts Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. While Mahomes and Curry have each participated in previous iterations of The Match, their longtime teammates Kelce and Thompson are both first timers.
The Wynn Golf Club will play host to this exciting contest. It's been the site for two prior The Match events, the first in 2021 when Brooks Koepka won his head-to-head clash with Bryce DeChambeau and more recently when Mahomes played the course while teamed with Josh Allen in a losing battle against Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. The Wynn is a championship-caliber par-70 course—although only 12 holes will be used for this match—with plenty of water hazards and other challenges the contestants will need to navigate to come out on top.
The Match VIII's format will be a scramble where all four golfers take a tee shot to start. Each team will then select its best shot to start from with each participant going on to play their own ball until holing out. The best score will be counted at the conclusion of each hole, with the winning side taking the hole.
While the contestants won't be playing for winnings of their own—the event will benefit the No Kid Hungry charity—viewers at home have a chance to win a little scratch. DraftKings Sportsbook recently put up a plethora of prop bets surrounding The Match 8, with lines on everything from which team will win to whether any of them hit a hole-in-one.
With so many bets up on the board, it can be difficult to home in on which are worth your while and offer the best chance to cash a winning ticket. If you aren't sure which way to lean when it comes to some of these prop offerings, then read on for a betting guide with picks against the spread that you won't want to miss.
The Match VIII Winning Prediction
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Curry/Thompson to win: -230
Mahomes/Kelce to win: +195
The simplest wager to make on The Match VIII is picking the winning team. Handicappers have installed the Golden State Warrior duo of Curry and Thompson as heavy favorites, giving them -230 odds—which means a bettor would need to risk $2.30 to win $1—to emerge victorious. The Kansas City Chiefs' pair of stars have opened as +195 underdogs, returning $1.95 for each $1 wagered on an upset.
It's hardly a shock that the basketball players are favored here. Curry is easily the top golf talent in the field, with Adam Woodard of USA Today noting that the two-time MVP is nearly a scratch golfer who boasts a handicap of just 0.1. That's far better than Tom Brady's reported 9.3 handicap and that NFL legend played a key role in besting Mahomes at this course last year. Mahomes is his team's top golfer, with Golf.com's Josh Sens revealing that the signal-caller's handicap was a 7.7 as of July 2022.
Despite Curry's prowess, there will still be plenty of opportunity for an upset. Thompson's handicap is a 15 according to Alex Myers of Golf Digest, making it the worst of the group and well behind Kelce's 11 handicap. With each player having to play their own ball after settling on the best tee shot, the Kansas City squad may make up ground on the approach.
Rather than laying the long odds in a short contest, lean towards the underdogs in The Match. Kelce and Mahomes have both been in big tournaments before—most recently playing the 2022 American Century Championship—giving them both the type of invaluable tourney experience that only Curry can really offer to his side.
Remember that two-thirds of a standard golf round is being played here, meaning there is a better chance that the Chiefs pairing can pull off the upset by getting hot early and taking advantage of Thompson's inexperience to steal the win.
Best Bet: Mahomes/Kelce to win (+195)
Longest Tee Shot
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Curry/Thompson: -250
Mahomes/Kelce: +175
Prop available on Hole Nos. 2, 5 and 7
The longest drive prop is one of the most fun and easy bets to make for The Match VIII. The premise is simple: pick the team that will hit it furthest off the tee on one of the three available holes.
Although Curry may be the best player out there and Thompson may be the tallest of the participants, fade the Warriors tandem and go with the Kansas City squad to hit the biggest bomb of the day. Mahomes is a notoriously big hitter who can drive with the best of them, showing as much during his last appearance in The Match.
The 27-year-old displayed his range when he smashed a 318-yard blast to cinch up a challenge win against Brady and Rodgers. He hit that rocket off the tee at No. 7 at the Wynn Golf Club, which just happens to be one of the holes available to bet on in this year's version of The Match. Mahomes also made some headlines when he launched a tee shot nearly 350 yards at the American Century Championship's Long Drive Competition in 2021.
Don't bet against the two-time Super Bowl champion performing a similar feat again this year, especially at fantastic +175 odds.
Best Bet: Mahomes/Kelce to hit longest tee shot on hole No. 7 (+175)
Will Any Player Hit a Tee Shot Within 5 Feet of Pin?
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Yes: +400 (Hole No. 4), +500 (Holes No. 6, 8, 12)
Accuracy is the name of the game when it comes to this close-to-the-pin prop. It won't matter which participant accomplishes it, as any of the four golfers landing a tee shot within five yards of the pin will be enough to pay out 4-to-1 or better odds on several holes.
Curry's presence should give bettors faith that this prop will cash. The 35-year-old may be best known for his marksmanship on the hardwood, but he's also able to dial it in on the links as well. He made waves last year during the American Century Championship after he holed out from 97 yards for an eagle.
Even PGA Tour talents have recognized Curry's elite abilities to drain deep shots off the court. Two-time major winner Collin Morikawa recently analyzed the swings of the four The Match VIII participants and said of Curry: "You're gonna be, I wouldn't say the star of this match… but you might have some of the most quality golf shots".
With Curry clearly capable of nailing accurate shots from distance, bettors should feel comfortable taking the 'yes' side of this prop. Even if Steph doesn't pull it off, you are still getting three more chances at cashing thanks to Thompson's, Kelce's and Mahomes' tee shots all also counting.
Although the line is a little shorter, go with the safe play and make the bet at hole No. 4. This is a mere 147-yard par-three that all four participants will be able to go pin-hunting on.
Best Bet: Yes, a player will hit tee shot within 5 feet of pin on hole No. 4 (+400)
Will There Be a Hole-in-One?
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Any player to make a hole-in-one: +8000
Curry: +10000
Mahomes: +13000
Kelce: +13000
Thompson: +15000
The odds of any of these golfers hitting a hole in one aren't great, but at least those willing to take a risk on the rare event will get a huge payout if it happens. Bettors can get anyone in the field making an ace at 800-1, while the individual bets range from Curry at 1,000-1 to Thompson at 1,500-1.
The Wynn is well known for rewarding significant prizes to those who card a hole-in-one. According to Jeff Eisenband of PGATour.com, the club regularly offers upwards of $20,000 to golfers who are make an ace at their course. That may be a drop in the bucket compared to the massive salaries the four participants of this event command, but it's still a little extra incentive to go flag hunting during The Match.
It's certainly not unheard of for amateur golfers to hole out at this venue either. One shared their story and proof of hitting a hole-in-one here at No. 2 back in January. Don't discount some of the world's top athletes from being able to pull off this feat as well.
Although this prop is basically a dart throw, those looking for a slight edge should lean towards Curry. The point guard may have the shortest odds and won't return as much on a wager, but he's the best golfer in the field by a good margin and would be the smartest individual hole-in-one bet you can make.
Best Bet: Curry to hit a hole-in-one (+10000)
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