Mets' Biggest Red Flags Early in 2023 Season
It's been a disappointing start to the 2023 season for a New York Mets team that opened the year with a record-setting payroll and expectations to match.
They finished with a losing record in May and find themselves looking up at the rival Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings as a result.
The starting rotation has been a glaring issue, with high-priced veterans Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer failing to pitch at an ace-caliber level, while the mix of arms behind them has been wildly inconsistent.
Offensively, the corner outfield spots have been an issue, with veterans Starling Marte and Mark Canha failing to match the level of production they showed a year ago.
Can the Mets navigate those red flags to turn things around and emerge as a legitimate title contender?
Poor Corner Outfield Production
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The Mets spent a combined $104.5 million to sign Starling Marte and Mark Canha in free agency prior to the 2022 season, and they served as productive bookends to center fielder Brandon Nimmo a year ago.
This season has been a different story entirely for the 34-year-old corner outfielders:
- Marte (2023): 50 G, 78 OPS+, .250/.316/.318, 7 XBH, -0.2 WAR
- Canha (2023): 47 G, 89 OPS+, .233/.318/.360, 13 XBH, 0.2 WAR
That has meant more playing time than expected for fourth outfielder Tommy Pham, who has also been below average offensively, and it has created two holes in the lineup that were expected to be strengths.
The team could use Jeff McNeil in the outfield on a more regular basis, perhaps creating a path to playing time for top prospect Ronny Mauricio in the process, but there's no question this is a better Mets team when Marte and Canha are playing up to their potential.
A Lack of Quality Starting Pitching Depth
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We'll get to the early performance of co-aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer shortly, but even more troubling has been the complete lack of consistency at the back of the starting rotation.
José Quintana has been sidelined since spring training following bone graft surgery on his rib, Carlos Carrasco has a 6.75 ERA in 25.1 innings, and the trio of Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi have made a combined 24 starts while all pitching to an FIP of 4.80 or higher.
Rookie Kodai Senga is settling in nicely to life in the big leagues with a 3.44 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 55 innings, but the team's lack of quality depth has been exposed and there's still a lot of baseball to be played.
Can someone emerge as a viable back-end option?
Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander Starting to Act Their Age
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It was always a risky proposition for the Mets to put their World Series hopes on the shoulders of future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, considering both are in their late 30s.
It's not that they've been terrible. They just have not performed at a level that indicates they are capable of carrying a staff to a World Series title.
Verlander missed time early with an injury, and he has a 4.80 ERA, 4.59 FIP and only 22 strikeouts in 30 innings over five starts since returning to action.
Scherzer has a solid 3.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but it's backed by a troubling 4.64 FIP, and his strikeouts are also down with 39 punchouts in 40.2 innings.
It's worth wondering if the pitch clock is having a greater impact on veteran pitchers who are having a tougher time adjusting after years of doing things a certain way, and if that's the case it could be trouble for the Mets' outlook.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Tuesday's games.
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