Big Ten Football: What the Poor 10-Pack of Bowls Means for 2012

Another year, another disappointing bowl season for Jim Delany. This completely imaginary story could describe how Delany spent his holiday to end the 2011 college football season:

Jim was going to enjoy a big night out with his significant other to celebrate the record ten bowl games for the conference this season, but fate intervened to prevent his perfect night.

Jim started by going out to his car to go pick up tickets for dinner and a movie, but Penn State failed to forward his order to TicketCity and the show was sold out. Furthermore, Jim tried to have the Insight to get reservations to the best restaurant in town, but Iowa forgot to come all the way back with the reservation.  Furthermore, Northwestern wrecked his car and ended up stuck in the mud at Meineke Car Care.

Jim still thought he could save the night by calling a taxi to go try the new Gator steaks at Outback Steakhouse, but Ohio State left the special teams at home and could not call the taxi to get Jim to his date with the gator. Then his credit card company Capital One called and informed him that Nebraska emptied his account and left him no money for a taxi.

How would Jim save the evening? He scrounged around in his pocket with the hopes to Fight Hunger, and Illinois delivered a minor win with a few bucks. Jim called up Little Caesar's Pizza and had them deliver a couple of pizzas for a romantic night in, and Purdue delivered the pizzas hot and ready. The night was looking up when Jim went Outback to go pick a flower for his significant other, as Michigan State redeemed his hopes for a good evening after a very long day.

Just when Jim was reaching for a beautiful Rose to take to his love, Wisconsin rumbled through the flower bed and trampled all over the rose with bad clock management. Jim sadly went back inside and consoled himself with a Sugar-filled dessert, which Michigan had thoughtfully delivered to end the night. Jim had hopes for a great evening, but all he got was disappointment...

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At least the Big Ten did not agree to challenge the SEC every year in non-conference play. It appears fairly clear that three bowl games a year against the conference is more than enough.

Returning to the serious matters at hand, what does the highly imperfect 10-pack of bowl games in 2011-2012 mean for each Big Ten team moving forward into next season? Let's take a look at how these bowl games set up the conference race in a much-too-early look at 2012.

Illinois

Despite having lost the final six games of the regular season and the firing of head coach Ron Zook, the Illini fought valiantly against the woeful UCLA Bruins and came out of California with a six point win. This win could mean the world to a program with a whole set of new coaches and a lot of new leaders following the departure of starters like DE Whitney Mercilus and LB Ian Thomas.

Despite falling behind early, Illinois showed patience with the run-first game plan, and it paid off when the defense locked down the terrible UCLA offense. The Illini will have seven starters back on the defense next season, but the key will be finding someone to step into the shoes of Mercilus, who dominated with 16.5 sacks.

New coach Tim Beckman comes from Toledo with a strong passing offense, so it's great luck that QB Nathan Scheelhaase will be a third-year junior starter with a crop of junior receivers to throw to next year. Although Illinois will not be able to succeed without the running game, expect this win to put the new leaders in a much better state of mind for off-season conditioning and spring football.

With Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin having major coaching and/or personnel turnover, the Legends Division is there for the taking for an upstart like the Illini.

Indiana and Minnesota

These were the only two Big Ten teams to miss out on bowl season, although perhaps it was for the better considering how the supposedly good teams in the conference fared.

Both teams desperately need better players, and the new coaching hires from last season have now had extra time to try and convince kids to help build these programs up to a competitive state in the conference. Jerry Kill certainly had more to work with in 2011, but Kill will lose five or six players from the offense, including three offensive linemen.

The middle of the defensive line has also graduated, so Kill needs to replenish those men in the trenches or else the battles will be lost up front on both units next year. QB MarQueis Gray has one more season left at the helm, and he will need to improve his decision-making to get Minnesota out of the basement of a tough Legends Division.

Kevin Wilson could not lead his Hoosiers to a win over an FBS team this year, but the bright side was the experience gained by many underclassmen throughout the season. The poor season did scare away Gunner Kiel, the top pro-style quarterback recruit in the 2012 class, who has now committed to LSU instead of joining his brother Dusty in Bloomington.

Wilson will have to move on with just the older Kiel, who struggled until late in the season with the new offense. If the Hoosiers can find some talented players to slow opposing offenses in the next two or three years, Indiana may finally get back to being competitive.

It will be a long rebuilding project though.

Iowa

The Hawkeyes did a whole lot of nothing for three quarters against Oklahoma, which put the Hawkeyes in a 21-0 hole that was too big to climb out of in a fourth quarter rally. Not that the Hawkeyes didn't try the same old comeback that served the team well other times in 2011, but Oklahoma and the SkyCam finally stopped the comeback and finished strong for a 17-point win.

This was possibly one of Kirk Ferentz's worst seasons in his 13 years at Iowa City. From the offseason controversy about working regimens and the Rhabdo outbreak to multiple public relations disasters (including a poorly timed fart joke during bowl press conferences), nothing seemed to go right for the Hawkeyes.

This year of problems was capped off by the bowl loss and the dismissal of RB Marcus Coker from the program. Despite having QB James Vandenberg coming back for his senior season, Iowa will need someone new and unexpected to step up and help Vandenberg with the departures of Coker and senior WR Marvin McNutt.

The Orange Bowl win two years ago seems far away, so Ferentz will need to pull some magic out of the hat to avoid being on the hot seat at the end of next season. With only five projected starters returning next year, avoiding a defensive breakdown should be the top priority this winter and spring.

Michigan

Michigan played so poorly for a long period of time in the Sugar Bowl that it made you wonder how they were still in the game with Virginia Tech. But the new-and-improved Wolverines defense made stops when absolutely necessary and led the team to an overtime win in New Orleans.

Following three years of struggles, nobody will be complaining about 11-2 and a BCS bowl win, two marks that had not been reached since 2006 (11 wins) and 2000 (BCS win). Now the challenge for Brady Hoke and Greg Mattison will be to keep the momentum going, especially with a tougher schedule, including road games at South Bend, Lincoln, and Columbus.

The defensive front was talented, but most of those players were not initially recruited by the Rich Rodriguez coaching staff. Thus, it will be critical to develop new players and the lesser defensive talent brought in during that three year period, as these players will now be forced to lead the defense.

Speaking of personnel losses, the offense will lose six senior starters (five regular starters), but juniors QB Denard Robinson and WR Roy Roundtree are returning. Add in three returning offensive linemen and running back Fitzgerald Toussaint, and a good core remains to build around for next season.

I would anticipate a small step backwards record-wise next year, although the team will keep improving similar to how Michigan State improved in 2011.

Michigan State

It took three overtimes, including a rare completely scoreless overtime, but the Spartans emerged with a bit of revenge from last season's bowl debacle against the SEC with a win over Georgia. Kirk Cousins and the other senior leaders on the offense did not panic when the Spartans fell behind 16-0 early, and these players will definitely be missed next season.

Michigan State has now cemented themselves as a legitimate contender in the Big Ten, which means Mark Dantonio should be able to lure more high quality recruits to East Lansing. 2012 will be a transition year for the offense though, as six seniors will depart after graduation.

If highly touted sophomore Andrew Maxwell can show the same poise Cousins had, then Michigan State will continue to compete at the top of the Legends Division. Maxwell will need whoever takes over for departing junior RB Edwin Baker to be a true threat to keep opposing defenses from dropping back into heavy coverage.

The one reason things do not look grim for the Spartans is that the defensive-minded Dantonio has a bowl win to point to and a lot of players returning from one of the best defenses in the conference in 2011. William Gholston became a star at defensive end this season. Expect him to draw a lot of double teams as a junior in 2012.

With the defense keeping the Spartans in games, there should be plenty of opportunity for the offense to figure things out and perhaps return to the Big Ten Championship game.

Nebraska

Nebraska had control of the Capital One Bowl against South Carolina heading into halftime, but then lightning struck on a Hail Mary pass that gave the Gamecocks a lead they would never surrender.  A brutal second half left the Cornhuskers with a blowout loss that raises questions about the direction of the program under Bo Pelini.

However, Pelini and his staff will get a pass for having to adjust to all new opponents in the new conference and one of the toughest cross-division slates possible in 2011 and 2012. This year Nebraska gets to host many of the traditional powers like Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State, which will make a difference for a team that plays much better at Lincoln.

Most of the offense will return next season, which should make for one of the more dominant offenses in the conference as long as the offensive line gets more physical in winter conditioning.  QB Taylor Martinez threw the ball more effectively in his second season as a starter, and RB Rex Burkhead was tough to stop.

The big problem with Nebraska winning a stacked Legends Division will probably be the defense, which struggled to stop teams like Northwestern, Wisconsin and Michigan despite having all-conference talent at numerous positions. Seniors Jared Crick, Lavonte David, and Alfonzo Dennard will leaves big holes on each level to fill for the Blackshirts.

Had it not been for a meltdown by Ohio State in Lincoln, Nebraska would have finished 4-4 in conference play. That mark may be in the Cornhuskers' future in 2012 with the defensive turnover.

Northwestern

Dan Persa and his senior class talked a lot about finishing the bowl drought that the Wildcats had been unable to finish the past three bowl seasons. However, Texas A&M looked like an SEC team in blowing away the Big Ten's Wildcats in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. And the 63-year-old monkey on the collective back of Northwestern remains prominent, as ever.

Similar to Nebraska, questions will abound about the direction of a program when bowl victories do not come and mediocre results happen. Despite having perhaps the best quarterback in the conference coming back in Dan Persa, the Wildcats struggled through a long losing streak in the middle of the season thanks, in part, to Persa's injuries.

But a breakthrough win at Nebraska allowed the Wildcats to continue their bowl appearance streak at four. A nice exit for a senior class that dominated playing time this season.

In fact, that senior class could be a major problem looking ahead to 2012. A whopping 16 starters (seven on offense, nine on defense) were seniors this season, and so Northwestern will find out a lot about recent recruiting classes for the first time in 2012.

Bottom line: Fitzgerald is a defensive coach and he needs to find some way to bring better defensive talent to Evanston. If that does not happen, Northwestern will never overcome the Michigan schools and Nebraska in the division.

Ohio State

Ohio State and Florida each wanted to avoid their first losing season in over 20 years, but only the Gators avoided that sour ending. The Buckeyes capped a disappointing season with a pathetic bowl loss to a mediocre Gators team. Ohio State actually outplayed Florida in almost every category, but two special teams lapses gave Florida 14 points to swing the game to a seven-point win.

Special teams had become somewhat inconsistent in Jim Tressel's last season. So the constant struggles this year on special teams under interim coach Luke Fickell led, in large part, to the first losing season in nearly three decades. Ending the season on a four-game losing streak would normally be a bad sign for recruiting and for 2012, but most teams with four-game losing streaks don't hire Urban Meyer.

Meyer will upgrade the talent on the offensive side of the ball immediately and will benefit from the experience QB Braxton Miller got in leading the team in the final ten games of his freshman season. RB Dan Herron might be gone, but the Buckeyes have a talented and loaded stable of running backs to keep defenses off balance when trying to contain the rushing and passing abilities of Miller.

The defense was banged up for most of 2011 and only loses two senior starters, assuming nobody else chooses to leave as a result of the coaching change or the one-year bowl ban.

Ohio State might not be looking at a conference championship officially next year, but that will not stop them from competing or even dominating in a weak Leaders division (think USC of 2011).

Penn State

The Nittany Lions looked like a perfect foil to Houston's great passing offense, but it turns out that Penn State was overmatched—just like nearly every other Houston opponent this year. Case Keenum finished his college career with over 500 yards passing as Penn State surrendered a shocking 600 yards of offense on the day.

Combine that with the nearly two months it took for Penn State to settle on a new head coach, and recruiting has officially become a mess. One of the smartest moves new head coach Bill O'Brien made was hiring his complete staff minus a quarterback coach in one week.

With Ted Roof coming over only two years removed from being defensive coordinator of Auburn's national title defense, expect no major dropoff in the Nittany Lions defense, despite losing some senior starters. One of the biggest question marks will be whether O'Brien (offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots) has enough talent on that side of the ball to make a difference in his first two years.

One thing that has to happen immediately is figuring out who the starting quarterback is. The Nittany Lions looked lost most of the season as Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin could not get comfortable in the role. RB Silas Redd will again have to carry much of the load in 2012.

This will be a painful transition for Penn State, and hopefully the defense stays strong so that the Nittany Lions can at least remain competitive while O'Brien and his staff figure out how to get more talent to buy in to Penn State University.

Purdue

Purdue started bowl season off right with a win over Western Michigan in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, but that win will not carry much weight for the rest of the conference. It's the first time since 2008 that the conference has actually put a team in the Detroit-based bowl, which may explain why the conference bowl record has stunk over the past few years.

The bowl win will take a little bit of the heat off Danny Hope, who was struggling to move the program in a positive direction from the end of the Joe Tiller-era. Although one would hope that Purdue does not need three quarterbacks next season, they will have all three back as Robert Marve was recently granted a sixth year of eligibility thanks to the injuries.

Purdue had success thanks to a lot of returning starters this year, but now Hope will need to stand and fall on his own recruits with about 10-12 new starters in 2012. Although the bowl win over a MAC team might not do much for the conference reputation, it will be a huge plus as Purdue tries to bring in new players to reach the upper echelon of the Leaders Division.

Purdue should be right in the mix next year considering the problems at Indiana, new coaching staffs at Ohio State, Illinois and Penn State—and a lot of new coaches and players at Wisconsin. Although the return of Montee Ball will keep Wisconsin as a likely favorite to return to Indianapolis, Hope has to seize this opportunity in 2012 to take the division before Ohio State and Penn State return to greatness.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin traded punches with Oregon throughout a wild affair in the Rose Bowl game, but two brain-numbing mistakes cost Wisconsin for the second straight season in this game.

A turnover on a 40-yard pass play on the next to last drive almost let Oregon run out the clock. But Wisconsin did receive 16 seconds to go 85 yards. Wisconsin managed to go 60 yards in 14 seconds, but then decided to try a spike instead of running a play with two seconds left and time ran out.

Now it seems like the only coach left in Madison is the head coach Bret Bielema. Offensive coordinator Paul Chryst took the Pittsburgh head coach position and grabbed three other assistant coaches to join him. The biggest departure may be Joe Rudolph, who was an ace in the hole for Wisconsin recruiting the past few years. A fifth assistant coach DelVaughn Alexander also left for Arizona State.

Which leaves Bielema and some defensive coaches. Considering that Wisconsin will need to break in three new offensive linemen, a couple new receivers and a young quarterback next year, expect the offense to take a big step back. However, Montee Ball and James White will still be tough to stop if they get any good zone blocking in front of them.

Going to two straight Rose Bowl games (even losses) will help recruiting, even if the coach losses come at a highly inconvenient time heading toward National Signing Day. Wisconsin can cement themselves as the primary rival and competition to Ohio State in the Leaders Division with another division title next year, and it will be right there for the taking.