Each NFL Division's Biggest 2023 Offseason Winner
Winning the offseason isn't the same as winning in the regular season, and by now, every NFL fan should know this. However, the offseason is a time for optimism, and the teams that do improve during the spring and summer have an opportunity to make up ground—or extend it—in their respective divisions.
This is vital because winning the division is still the easiest path to the postseason, even in an era with three wild-card teams in each conference.
With the 2023 draft in the rearview, now feels like an appropriate time to examine the biggest offseason winner in each division. By looking at factors such as roster turnover, coaching changes and free-agent, trade and draft value, we'll pinpoint which teams improved the most relative to their divisional counterparts.
Below, you'll find a look at each division's biggest moves, winners and how we expect it all to impact the 2023 standings.
AFC East: New York Jets
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This was one of the easier calls to make, even if it's based purely on potential.
The AFC East had three squads finish above .500 in 2022, and the team that didn't is the one that stands to gain the most ground.
The reigning division champs, the Buffalo Bills, had a mixed offseason. They did a great job of retaining players like Jordan Poyer, Shaq Lawson and David Quessenberry in free agency, but they didn't add much instant-impact talent aside from rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid.
The Miami Dolphins had a similarly mundane offseason, though they did acquire cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Cam Smith to help bolster their 27th-ranked pass defense and dreadful red-zone defense. Opponents scored touchdowns on 59.3 percent of their red-zone trips against Miami last season.
The New England Patriots did well to bring in players like wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, tight end Mike Gesicki and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Adding offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien should do wonders for quarterback Mac Jones and the rest of the unit too.
However, the New York Jets finally have an above-average quarterback after trading for Aaron Rodgers. The former Green Bay Packers starter wasn't great in 2022 (91.1 passer rating), but he's a big improvement over Zach Wilson, a player who struggled both on the field and in the locker room.
"In speaking to some players on the team, his approach, or lack thereof, was not well regarded," The Score's Jordan Schultz said of Wilson on the Pat McAfee Show (h/t Steve DelVecchio of Larry Brown Sports).
New York also hired Rodgers' former offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, for the same position and added former Packers receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. The Jets have done about all they can to make the transition easy for the future Hall of Famer.
Even if Rodgers isn't able to regain his MVP form, even a small upgrade at quarterback should make the Jets playoff relevant. Their defense that ranked fourth in both points and yards allowed last season. It just might not be enough to put them atop the loaded AFC East.
Projected AFC East Finish
1. Buffalo Bills
2. New York Jets
3. Miami Dolphins
4. New England Patriots
AFC South: Houston Texans
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This was also an easy decision, as only one AFC South team dramatically improved this offseason.
The Indianapolis Colts got a new head coach in Shane Steichen and a new quarterback in fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson. They get an honorable mention for filling their two biggest needs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars didn't do much to improve their roster. But they won the division last year, and the arrival of recently reinstated wideout Calvin Ridley can be seen as a big win for quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
The Tennessee Titans might somehow be worse than they were a year ago. They got their quarterback of the future in Will Levis and an elite offensive line prospect in Peter Skoronski. However, they did little to address their league-worst pass defense aside from signing cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, and they ignored that side of the ball altogether over draft weekend.
The Houston Texans, meanwhile, landed two key building blocks last month: second overall pick C.J. Stroud and third overall pick Will Anderson Jr.
Anderson should be a difference-maker from day one off the edge, and Stroud is the sort of pro-ready quarterback who can improve the team immediately.
"Stroud can be an effective rookie-contract quarterback while trying to add more of an edge to his game," Derrik Klassen of the Bleacher Report Scouting Department wrote.
Additionally, the Texans brought in veterans like Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, Sheldon Rankins, Jimmie Ward, Shaq Mason and Case Keenum. They also hired head coach DeMeco Ryans, who can instill a tough identity and winning culture in the locker room.
Ryans played for Houston from 2006 to '11 and knows both the city and its fanbase well. He also spent six years as an assistant with the San Francisco 49ers, including two as defensive coordinator from 2021 to '22, meaning he understands what sort of work goes into sustained success.
This was a massive offseason for the Texans, though coming off a campaign in which they had arguably the league's worst roster, the results might not be immediate.
Projected AFC South Finish
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Houston Texans
4. Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
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This was probably the toughest decision to make, as all four AFC North teams could be considered offseason winners.
The Cleveland Browns upgraded their coaching staff by hiring defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone. They rebuilt their defensive line by adding Dalvin Tomlinson, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Trysten Hill and rookie Siaki Ika, and they executed a bargain trade for wideout Elijah Moore.
The Browns swapped their second-round pick for the Jets' third-round pick to acquire Moore then landed wideout Cedric Tillman in Round 3.
The Pittsburgh Steelers upgraded their offensive line by adding Isaac Seumalo and rookie Broderick Jones. They improved their defense by landing Patrick Peterson, Elandon Roberts and rookie corner Joey Porter Jr., and they got a great draft value by landing tight end Darnell Washington in the third round.
The Cincinnati Bengals added Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. on a reasonable four-year. $64.1 million deal. Cincinnati also got some promising defensive rookies in Myles Murphy and DJ Turner II.
The Baltimore Ravens, though, made the single biggest move of the division's offseason by locking up quarterback Lamar Jackson.
There was plenty of uncertainty surrounding the 2019 NFL MVP's future after he received the non-exclusive franchise tag. He'll now remain a Raven on a new five-year, $260 million deal.
Jackson should also benefit from a more creative offense under new coordinator Todd Monken. He'll definitely benefit from having new receivers Nelson Agholor, Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers.
Along with Flowers, Baltimore got great draft value in linebacker Trenton Simpson, a potential first-round candidate who fell to Round 3. Working out a long-term deal with 2022 trade acquisition Roquan Smith in January was a win, and landing cornerback Rock Ya-Sin late in free agency was pure gravy.
One could argue that Cleveland improved the most this offseason—and Cincinnati remains the top team—but Baltimore did the best job of ensuring it remains a perennial contender.
Projected AFC North Finish
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns
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AFC West: Denver Broncos
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This was another tricky division to sort out because none of the AFC West teams dramatically improved their rosters this offseason.
The reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs largely reloaded. They replaced Orlando Brown Jr. with Jawaan Taylor; JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman with Richie James and Rashee Rice; and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy with former OC Matt Nagy.
The Los Angeles Chargers added coordinator Kellen Moore and rookie wideout Quentin Johnston to their offense but didn't do much to improve a defense that ranked 21st in points allowed (22.6) and dead last in yards per carry allowed (5.2) last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders completely shuffled their roster, replacing Derek Carr, Mack Hollins, Darren Waller and Rock Ya-Sin with the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo, Jakobi Meyers, Michael Mayer and David Long Jr. However, Las Vegas is in the early stages of a rebuild, and different doesn't translate to better.
The Denver Broncos, however, did add some nice players in Ben Powers, Mike McGlinchey, Zach Allen and rookie linebacker Drew Sanders. More importantly, they added a Super Bowl-winning coach in Sean Payton.
There's no guarantee that Payton will be able to return quarterback Russell Wilson to Pro Bowl form, but at least he should have a plan. Under rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett last season, Wilson finished with a career-worst 84.4 passer rating.
Denver took a huge swing on Wilson last offseason, dealing two first-round picks, two second-rounders, a fifth-rounder, quarterback Drew Lock, defensive lineman Shelby Harris and tight end Noah Fant to the Seattle Seahawks to acquire him. Trading for Payton was a gamble, but at least it provides the hope of the bet on Wilson paying off.
Whether that translates to regular-season success is another story.
Projected AFC West Finish
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Los Angeles Chargers
3. Denver Broncos
4. Las Vegas Raiders
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
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It wasn't much of a contest in the NFC East, where the reigning conference champions were also the big offseason winners.
The Dallas Cowboys made some savvy trades for Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. However, they did little in free agency and took developmental prospects like Mazi Smith and Luke Schoonmaker early in the draft.
The Washington Commanders added pieces to support second-year quarterback Sam Howell, like offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and journeyman quarterback/mentor Jacoby Brissett.
The New York Giants extended quarterback Daniel Jones, franchise-tagged Saquon Barkley and added Darren Waller, Parris Campbell, Jamison Crowder and Jalin Hyatt to their underwhelming receiving corps.
The Philadelphia Eagles, meanwhile, had big win after big win throughout the offseason.
General manager Howie Roseman did a tremendous job of retaining or replacing talent. The Eagles lost Miles Sanders, Javon Hargrave, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, T.J. Edwards, Isaac Seumalo, Kyzir White and Marcus Epps but managed to keep James Bradberry, Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, Boston Scott and Darius Slay (with a reworked contract).
Roseman then added Rashaad Penny, Greedy Williams, Terrell Edmunds and Nicholas Morrow before robbing the NFL on draft weekend.
Somehow, the defending NFC champs ended up with Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Sydney Brown and Kelee Ringo. Carter and Smith were two of the top 13 players on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's final rankings, while Ringo ranked 54th and Brown 121st.
On top of everything, the Eagles got a long-term extension done with quarterback Jalen Hurts. It was a massive five-year, $255 million deal, but it will ensure that Philadelphia can avoid the sort of quarterback contract drama that Baltimore just went through for the foreseeable future.
One could argue that the Eagles had the best offseason of any team this year.
Projected NFC East Finish
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Commanders
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
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This one probably comes as the biggest surprise, but hear us out.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost more talent than they gained. It's hard to call them winners at all with the likes of Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Donovan Smith, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, O.J. Howard, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Ryan Succop exiting the building.
The Carolina Panthers traded up to get the No. 1 pick and, ultimately, quarterback Bryce Young. That's a big win, and it comes on the heels of adding proven players like Miles Sanders, DJ Chark Jr., Hayden Hurst, Vonn Bell and Kamu Grugier-Hill.
Head coach Frank Reich was a solid choice to guide Carolina's rookie QB.
The New Orleans Saints added Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Carr, and after reloading a defense that ranked fifth in yards allowed and ninth in points allowed last season, New Orleans is probably the favorite in the NFC South.
A case could certainly be made for the Panthers or Saints here, especially after both added new quarterbacks. However, the Atlanta Falcons believed they had their quarterback in 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder.
"I've talked to a few people who believe Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud might have been the only passers Atlanta would have thought twice about had they dropped to No. 8," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported. "But overall, the Falcons were pretty set on building around Desmond Ridder."
After adding players like Jonnu Smith, Mack Hollins, Scotty Miller, Ethan Greenidge, Joe Gaziano and rookie do-it-all running back Bijan Robinson, the Falcons are well-equipped to support Ridder moving forward.
And Ridder's skill group of Robinson, Smith, Hollins, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier is the deepest and arguably the most talented in the division.
Atlanta didn't ignore its defense either, hiring coordinator Ryan Nielsen and adding the likes of David Onyemata, Bud Dupree, Kaden Elliss, Calais Campbell and Jessie Bates III.
If Ridder proves to be the answer, the Falcons don't have a glaring weakness on their roster, and they should be in the thick of the divisional race up until the final game.
Projected NFC South Finish
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC North: Chicago Bears
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In the NFC North, two teams got markedly better, while two may have gotten worse.
The Packers traded Aaron Rodgers and lost players like Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Krys Barnes, Jarran Reed and Adrian Amos. Green Bay did have a solid draft, landing prospects like edge-rusher Lukas Van Ness and tight end Luke Musgrave, but it will experience a huge adjustment period.
While the Packers are unlikely to be better than last year, they have enough talented returning stars—like Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Jaire Alexander and Rashan Gary—to remain relevant.
The team should get credit for its haul for Rodgers. It swapped 2023 first-round picks with the Jets and obtained a 2023 second-round pick, a 2023 sixth-round pick and a conditional 2024 second-round pick that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the snaps this season
The Minnesota Vikings replaced Adam Thielen with rookie receiver Jordan Addison, but they also lost Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, Duke Shelley and Eric Kendricks from a defense that was already one of the league's worst.
The Detroit Lions added C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton, rookie first-round pick Jack Campbell and second-round pick Brian Branch to their 32nd-ranked defense. Detroit also brought in wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr. and rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs to keep its fourth-ranked offense humming.
While the Lions might see the most immediate improvements, the Chicago Bears were the big overall winners. They committed to quarterback Justin Fields and got a massive haul for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft: the ninth and 61st picks in 2023, a 2024 first-rounder, a 2025 second-rounder and wideout D.J. Moore.
Along with Moore, the Bears added veterans like D'Onta Foreman, Robert Tonyan, Nate Davis, T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds, Andrew Billings and DeMarcus Walker. They then got Fields more help in rookie right tackle Darnell Wright.
Chicago might not see a massive jump in wins this season, but general manager Ryan Poles has jump-started the Bears' rebuild by improving both sides of the ball and adding valuable draft capital to the cache.
Projected NFC North Finish
1. Detroit Lions
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Chicago Bears
NFC West: Seattle Seahawks
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The San Francisco 49ers had a good offseason, while it's been a mixed bag for the Arizona Cardinals.
San Francisco didn't do a ton to upgrade its roster, but it did add star defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, along with players like Isaiah Oliver, Clelin Ferrell and rookie Ji'Ayir Brown to help replace departed talent.
The Cardinals got a new head coach in Jonathan Gannon and drafted a top tackle prospect in Paris Johnson Jr. However, they also lost Zach Allen, Byron Murphy and J.J. Watt (retired) and could still part ways with standout safety Budda Baker, who either wants a raise or a trade.
With quarterback Kyler Murray recovering from a torn ACL, Arizona didn't do enough.
If there was a big loser in the NFC West, it was the Los Angeles Rams. L.A. did nothing of note in free agency and lost key contributors like Jalen Ramsey (traded), Leonard Floyd, Bobby Wagner, Taylor Rapp, Nick Scott and David Long Jr.
The 2023 Rams might be better than last year's version if Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson and Aaron Donald stay healthy, but their overall roster is worse.
In many ways, the Seattle Seahawks' offseason was the opposite. They re-signed Pro Bowl quarterback Geno Smith on a three-year, $75 million deal and threw many darts at a defense that ranked 26th in yards allowed last season.
Players like Wagner, Devin Bush, Julian Love, Dre'Mont Jones, Jarran Reed and first-round cornerback Devon Witherspoon will help second-year coordinator Clint Hurtt implement his scheme successfully.
Additionally, the Seahawks drafted receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back Zach Charbonnet, who will join an offense that ranked ninth in scoring last season.
With a skill group of Smith-Njigba, Charbonnet, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Kenneth Walker III, Smith stands a good chance of replicating his 2022 Pro Bowl success. And with even an average defense to complement a high-powered offense, the Seahawks could be legitimate challengers to the 49ers in the NFC West.
Projected NFC West Finish
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. Arizona Cardinals
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