Buying or Selling Mets' Biggest Breakout Players in 2023 Season
The New York Mets have a payroll pushing $350 million and a roster loaded with high-profile star players, but there has still been plenty of opportunity for breakout players to emerge over the first month of the year.
Top prospect Brett Baty started the season in the minors, but he has been raking since being recalled. Meanwhile, with multiple injuries to the starting rotation, Joey Lucchesi and newcomer Kodai Senga have both been asked to shoulder more of the load on the starting staff.
But are they for real?
Ahead, we have given our take on whether to buy or sell those early performances based on track records and advanced metrics.
3B Brett Baty
1 of 3
It made sense for the Mets to return Brett Baty to the minors and start the year with veteran Eduardo Escobar at third base, but the writing was on the wall that the job would soon belong to the up-and-comer.
He went 14-for-35 with five home runs and 15 RBI in nine games at Triple-A before he was promoted to the majors on April 17, and he is hitting .333/.381/.538 with two doubles and two home runs in 42 plate appearances in New York.
The 23-year-old has offered some of the best offensive upside of any prospect in baseball since he was taken No. 12 overall in the 2019 draft, and he could occupy the hot corner in Queens for the next decade.
He has some work to do catching up to James Outman and Corbin Carroll in the NL Rookie of the Year race, but there is every reason to believe his hot start is the real deal
Verdict: Buy
SP Joey Lucchesi
2 of 3
Joey Lucchesi made 56 starts with the San Diego Padres in 2018 and 2019 combined, posting a 4.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 303 strikeouts in 293.2 innings, so his performance this season has not exactly come out of nowhere.
After an injury-plagued 2020 season, the Mets acquired him as part of the three-team deal that sent Joe Musgrove to the San Diego Padres and shipped prospect Endy Rodriguez to Pittsburgh. That deal looks regrettable in hindsight, as Rodriguez has emerged as one of baseball's top prospects, but Lucchesi is helping to even the scales a bit with his early production.
Thrust into action in the starting rotation amid multiple injuries, he had a 2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a 12-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12.1 innings over his first two starts before surrendering surrendering five hits and four earned runs in four innings on Wednesday.
Despite that shaky outing, he could still hold down a spot in the rotation all season given his past success and solid peripheral numbers.
Verdict: Buy
SP Kodai Senga
3 of 3
In 11 seasons in the Japanese League, Kodai Senga went 104-51 with a 2.42 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 1,486 strikeouts in 1,340.2 innings. He also earned All-World Baseball Classic team honors in 2017 and picked up the win against Team USA in the 2020 Olympics en route to a gold medal.
The Mets signed him to a five-year, $75 million deal during the offseason, and while he has gone 3-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 26 innings over his first five starts, there are some less encouraging numbers as well.
His 18 walks are alarming, especially considering he has walked at least three batters every time out, meaning it has not just been one or two instances of mediocre command. His 15.4 percent walk rate ranks 133rd among 135 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched.
That has led to a 1.58 WHIP and an alarming 5.48 FIP, and while there was bound to be an adjustment period with his new team, the lack of command could prove to be a major issue going forward
Verdict: Sell
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and accurate through Tuesday's games.
.png?w=256)
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
