The Best and Worst Case for Every NFL Team Next Season
Now that the 2011 NFL regular season is history, fans of NFL teams can start to turn their attention towards 2012, especially fans of the 20 teams that failed to reach the playoffs.
From head coaches being fired to offensive coordinators and defensive coordinators being canned, there are plenty of developments going on around the league to try to stay on top of. With that being the case, we are going to do some forward thinking and consider each team's unique situation with an eye towards the 2012 season.
What is the best scenario for each team next year, and what is the worst scenario? We will start with an overview, looking at what each team did better or worse than last year, and where things appear to be headed. We will also try to look at key free-agent decisions and where teams are going to be drafting from. Feel free to include your own comments or thoughts about your favorite team.
Arizona Cardinals
1 of 32Overview
The Arizona Cardinals had a bottom-five offense and a bottom-five defense in 2010. They improved their rank on both sides of the ball in 2011 (offense was 19th and defense was 18th). They will have an interesting battle next year to determine who is the starting quarterback between Kevin Kolb and John Skelton.
After two straight playoff appearances, the Cardinals have now missed the playoffs two years in a row. The team allowed 54 sacks in 2011, which ranks the team at No. 31 in league. That needs to improve.
Best Case
One of the two quarterbacks emerges in training camp as the clear-cut starter and the team rallies behind the No. 1 quarterback. The Cardinals are set to draft No. 13 in the 2012 NFL draft, so they hope a talent like Jon Martin, the stud left tackle from Stanford, will still be on the board for them to consider.
The Cardinals have made bringing back DE Calais Campbell a priority, so locking him up to a long-term deal would be ideal.
Worst Case
Neither quarterback distinguishes himself from the other, and this winds up being a battle that splits the locker room in half. If Martin is drafted before the Cardinals have a shot at him, the Cardinals have enough directions that they can go in that they should be able to find help with this pick in other areas of need. If a deal with Campbell can't be worked out, they slap a franchise tag on him.
The Cardinals need to improve the offensive line or least stop overpaying guys that aren't performing according to the level of their pay grade, like LG Daryn Colledge and LT Levi Brown.
Atlanta Falcons
2 of 32Overview
The Falcons turned in another 10-win season and have returned to the playoffs. The offense jumped from No. 16 overall to No. 10 in the past year. The defense made a slight improvement from No. 16 to No. 12.
It will be interesting to see if the addition of Julio Jones propels the Falcons further in the playoffs this year, even though they open up on the road this time around.
Best Case
The chemistry between Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White continues to improve, and the trio becomes even more effective in 2012. White improves his hands in the offseason, as he led the NFL with 14 dropped passes this year. The Falcons have already reached an extension with tight end Tony Gonzalez for 2012, ensuring another viable threat will return.
The Falcons find more ways to use the explosiveness of Jacquizz Rodgers and get him more involved in the 2012 offense.
Worst Case
Have we seen the best from Michael Turner? Will his career start that eventual slide towards mediocrity? If the Falcons can't improve their run game in the offseason, this might come back to haunt the offense in 2012. The Falcons will be stewing on draft day in 2012, as they have already dealt away their first-round pick to Cleveland, so they will be watching in agony knowing that they can't participate.
Other worst-case scenarios would be that the Falcons lose defensive end John Abraham in free agency and/or corner Brent Grimes. Losing either player could be difficult to replace from a quality standpoint, not to mention the damage it does to the overall defense.
Baltimore Ravens
3 of 32Overview
The Baltimore Ravens took a step up this year by making a statement in sweeping their AFC North rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens have now registered consecutive 12-win seasons and are the only NFL team that has qualified for the playoffs in each of the past four seasons. They improved their overall defensive ranking to jump up from No. 10 in 2010 to No. 3 this year.
Best Case
Ray Lewis comes back for another year. The Ravens get a healthy Lee Evans back in 2012, and he demonstrates what kind of a quality receiver that he has always been, as 2011 was an outlier for him. More best-case scenarios would be to lock up corner Lardarius Webb and running back Ray Rice to long-term contracts.
Worst Case
If Ray Lewis decides to retire after the season, that would be the worst-case scenario for me. The physical presence, the emotional presence—Lewis is basically the heart and soul of the Ravens defense. His physical skills may not be what they once were, but he is still an important piece of the puzzle. Losing either Rice or Webb to another team via free agency would definitely hurt the Ravens.
Buffalo Bills
4 of 32Overview
The Buffalo Bills started out 5-2, but injuries derailed their playoff push, leading to a 6-10 finish. Since 2000, the Bills are the only NFL team that has failed to go to the playoffs.
The Bills offense jumped from No. 25 in 2010 to No. 14 this year. Fred Jackson was in the running for MVP prior to suffering a broken leg in Week 11. The Bills allowed the fewest sacks in NFL, but the defense came up with just 29 sacks, finishing 27th. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the NFL with 23 interceptions, another dubious stat.
The defense gave up the most yards in team history, prompting the team to fire defensive coordinator George Edwards this past week. Linebackers coach Dave Wannstedt has been promoted to become their new defensive coordinator.
Best Case
Keeping key guys on the offense together, as the Bills have a number of free agents, including wide receiver Steve Johnson, tight end Scott Chandler, tackle Demetrius Bell, wide receiver Roscoe Parrish and guards Kraig Urbik and Chad Rinehart. The Bills draft in the No. 10 slot, so they should be able to find a potential starter there, which could be a stud pass-rusher, a left tackle, a WR or a quarterback.
Worst Case
Some of the key injured starters don't come back to full health in time for camp. The injured include Kyle Williams, Shawne Merriman, Terrence McGee, Marcus Easley and Eric Wood. The Bills can't afford to go backwards on offense, which is what would happen if they fail to work out a deal with Steve Johnson.
The Bills have told Fred Jackson they will rework his contract. If they fail to honor their word, you will have an angry Jackson coming back for the final year of his current deal. Keep Jackson happy.
Carolina Panthers
5 of 32Overview
Rookie quarterback sensation Cam Newton led a dramatic turnaround in their offense, as the Panthers were the worst offense in the NFL in 2010 and jumped all the way up to No. 7 in 2011. The offense scored the fifth-most points in entire NFL. That can all be attributed to Newton.
Carolina finished the year 6-10, an improvement from 2-14 the year before. The defense, however, tumbled from No. 18 last year to a bottom-five finish this year (No. 28). The Panthers are due to pick at No. 8 in the 2012 NFL draft.
Best Case
The Panthers address their defensive woes in the draft and via free agency. They also could surround Newton with a few more weapons on offense, as there was a steep drop-off in production from Steve Smith to Brandon LaFell. Carolina had the No. 3 running attack in NFL this year, and it averaged more yards per carry than any other team. Keeping the running game viable for a balanced offensive attack should allow the Panthers to keep moving the chains.
Worst Case
The Panthers become too enamored with finding new toys for Newton to work with on offense and don't do enough to upgrade the defense. The defense suffered some key injuries early, so getting DT Ron Edwards, LB Jon Beason and LB Thomas Davis back healthy is a priority. If they have lost a step due to the injuries and through rehab, they will be hurting. Carolina lost a team-record 18 players to season-ending injuries this year.
A potential blow to the Panthers offense would be if offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski leaves the team for a head coaching job. The Panthers gave Jacksonville permission to interview Chudzinski for its head coach vacancy.
Chicago Bears
6 of 32Overview
Falling out of the playoffs in 2011 after appearing in the NFC championship game in 2010, GM Jerry Angelo was fired, but the Bears have retained head coach Lovie Smith for at least one more year.
The Bears have only made the playoffs once in the last for years and went from 11-5 to 8-8, which can be attributed to the season-ending injuries to running back Matt Forte and quarterback Jay Cutler. The defense plunged from No. 9 last year to No. 17 in 2011.
In other Bears developments, offensive coordinator Mike Martz has resigned over "philosophical differences," and the team has also relieved QB coach Shane Day of his job. Day never developed Caleb Hanie to any greater level, so he is gone.
The Bears will be drafting with the No. 19 overall pick in first round.
Best Case
Firing Angelo and bringing in a GM that can find an accord with running back Matt Forte to keep him happy. The Bears have to add weapons to their offense, which can't continue to rely on just one person (Forte), because when he goes down the results are disastrous.
The Bears have maintained a bottom-10 NFL offense for the past three years running, and until they fix that, they will have trouble winning it all in the current NFL.
Worst Case
The Bears fool around and don't sign Forte to a long-term deal, and mentally he checks out of Chicago. They might slap a franchise tag on him, but that won't endear the team to him at all. Another worst-case scenario would be for the Bears to not upgrade their backup quarterback situation, as their weakness at that position has come back to bite them for two straight years.
Besides Forte, other Bears free agents are LE Israel Idonije and RB Kahlil Bell. Another Bears player that has been unhappy with his contract is LB Lance Briggs, so this is another issue for the new GM they hire.
Cincinnati Bengals
7 of 32Overview
The Bengals have to be considered one of the surprise teams of the 2011 season, riding the hot hand of rookies Andy Dalton and A.J Green to a wild-card berth.
Granted, the Bengals didn't own wins over quality opponents, but they did beat the teams they were supposed to beat. The defense jumped from No. 15 last year to No. 7 and had a large say in making the playoffs.
Best Case
The Bengals offense has finished No. 20 for two straight years, so they could still use some more weapons to help Dalton out. They won't be drafting until somewhere in the final 12 picks in Round 1 but should be able to find some help in free agency, as a number of talented wide receivers are going to be testing the free-agent waters.
The Bengals also own the No. 17 pick in the first round, thanks to the Carson Palmer trade, so they might find someone to eventually replace Cedric Benson there.
Worst Case
The Bengals are just starting to scratch the surface of improving as a team, but they will need to win some quality games in the first half of 2012, or else they will keep wondering, just how good are we anyway? They should find a quality backup to take Benson out, as he has proven to not be the most reliable guy on and off the field.
Cleveland Browns
8 of 32Overview
The Browns simply have to upgrade their offense at all costs this year, as they have been ranked overall at No. 29, 29 and 32 for the last three years running. Not addressing this oversight sooner is unacceptable.
The Browns also have a bottom-three rush defense, allowing 147.4 yards per game on the ground. They ranked No. 2 in pass defense, so that is one of their lone bright spots. The team actually got worse, dropping from 5-11 in 2010 and 2009 to 4-12 this year.
Best Case
The Browns have a number of holes to address, so it is not out of the question for them to consider trading down out of the No. 4 overall draft slot to accumulate a bunch of draft picks again. Letting Peyton Hillis walk away in free agency appears to be the best idea, as he was dreadful for the Browns in 2011.
Finding some stud defensive linemen to upgrade the line that will complement Ahtyba Rubin, Phil Taylor and Jabaal Sheard is another area the team wants to address.
Surrounding annual Pro Bowl tackle Joe Thomas with some other talent has to be the priority for the Browns in the 2012 offseason.
Worst Case
The Browns don't get an offer they like enough to trade out of the No. 4 pick and wind up taking a player that doesn't help out the offense. They should be drafting offense, offense and more offense this year. It would also help out to hire a sharp mind as offensive coordinator, since what the Browns are doing now isn't working. To not hire outside help is begging for the same pattern to repeat itself.
They also need to work on Greg Little's hands, as he was tied for No. 2 in the NFL with 14 dropped passes, which really held back the Browns offense.
Dallas Cowboys
9 of 32Overview
The Dallas Cowboys improved their team from 2010, as they went from 6-10 to 8-8, but it wasn't good enough to win the NFC East division, especially since the Cowboys lost four of their final five games down the stretch and were swept by the New York Giants.
The Cowboys' overall defense improved from No. 23 in 2010 to No. 14 in 2011. The team also found a dynamic running back in DeMarco Murray, who appears to be a great fit for the Cowboys offense.
Best Case
Murray is able to rehab his injury and come back to training camp at 100 percent. That would be a great start to the 2012 season. A return to form by wide receiver Miles Austin would also be a welcome sight. The Cowboys may be wise to let go of Terence Newman, who was repeatedly beat for big plays coming down the stretch.
The other best-case scenario is that Jerry Jones finally hires an outside person that actually knows what he is doing to take over as the team's general manager. As long as Jones continues to insist on running the show, the Cowboys can look forward to making the playoffs once every four years, like they currently do under Jones' leadership.
Worst Case
Jones refuses to hire somebody and stubbornly runs the team his way for another year. Meanwhile, the Cowboys offense continues to go downhill, as they have gone from No. 2 to No. 7 to No. 11 over the past three years.
The Cowboys are drafting No. 14 in the 2012 draft, so hopefully they find some strong secondary help because that is the Cowboys' Achilles heel right now. Jones will probably become enamored with some other player that really is more of a luxury than filling a major need.
Cowboys free agents include TE Martellus Bennett and LBs Bradie James and Keith Brooking, so it will be interesting to see if they bring any of the three players back.
Denver Broncos
10 of 32Overview
2011 was the third time in the last four years that the Broncos have finished with an 8-8 record, but this time it was good enough to win the AFC West division title. Broncos made a big improvement from the 4-12 record last year, and you would have to attribute most of that success to the dramatic-fourth quarter wins led by Tim Tebow.
Best Case
John Elway and John Fox will make a decision after the postseason has concluded as to what direction the Broncos offense will take going forward. Either it is going to be a continuation of a Tebow-led offense, or they are going to cite the limitations that were in evidence over the final three games in the regular season and declare that they are going in a different direction. Either way, the Broncos need to commit to something and reshape their team according to that direction.
Maybe they go after a quarterback like free agent Matt Flynn and let Flynn and Tebow compete in the spring to see who deserves to start. Is it possible for Flynn to start at QB and Tebow to come in and run the Wildcat as a change of pace?
Worst Case
The worst-case scenario would be waffling on which direction they take with the quarterback. Are they a running team, or are they going to be a passing team, or some combination of the two? Since they won't be drafting until somewhere above slot No. 20 overall, they won't have a shot at any of the elite quarterbacks.
Detroit Lions
11 of 32Overview
The Detroit Lions have made the long climb up from 0-16 to 2-14 to 6-10 and finally to 10-6. It might be too soon for them to advance deep into the playoffs this year, but as long as the team continues to show positive growth, their future is bright.
The Lions offense jumped all the way up from No. 17 last year to No. 5 overall in 2011. It should be quite an aerial show when Lions face the Saints in the Wild Card Game under the dome in New Orleans.
Best Case
The Lions are able to draft some key personnel to upgrade their secondary. Bringing in some expensive free agents for the secondary is probably not a bad idea either, as this appears to be the major Achilles heel of the team right now. They have a key free agent to sign in defensive end Cliff Avril, who will be in demand on the free-agency market with so many teams needing pass-rush help.
Worst Case
The team tries to impress upon Ndamukong Suh the importance of maturing and cleaning up his reputation around the league. Failing to do so will result in more costly penalties, fines from the league office and ultimately longer suspensions. Suh is young enough that he can still have a very long and productive NFL career, but without some sort of "light going on over his head," he is in real danger of having a James Harrison kind of image that will just progressively get worse.
Green Bay Packers
12 of 32Overview
From winning the 2010 Super Bowl as a No. 6 seed to defending the title by coming out with the best record in the NFL in 2011 at 15-1, the Packers look well positioned to try to win consecutive Super Bowl crowns.
Just like the New England Patriots, the Packers offer up a top-ranked offense (No. 3 overall) and a terrible defense (worst in the NFL at No. 32) but find a way to outscore almost everybody. It would be fitting if Green Bay played against New England in a huge, winner-take-all shootout game.
Best Case
Do the Packers bring back free-agent tight end Jermichael Finley, or do they let him walk in free agency? He clearly is one of the more talented tight ends in football, so he will be in demand. The Packers organization is a well-oiled machine, and they will keep the vast majority of the team together to try to make it three Super Bowl appearances in a row should they reach it this year.
Worst Case
Green Bay does give up a decent number of sacks on Aaron Rodgers (it allowed 41 sacks, which ranked No. 21), and if Matt Flynn leaves as expected for a chance to start elsewhere, the Packers all of a sudden don't have somebody that they can turn to in a pinch that they would have complete confidence in, like they did with Flynn.
Houston Texans
13 of 32Overview
Despite suffering a number of key injuries to their star players, the Texans were able to prevail and capture their first playoff berth by winning the AFC South division. Injuries to Mario Williams, Arian Foster, Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Matt Leinart might have been sufficient to wipe out most teams, but Houston persevered.
It also helped that the team had Wade Phillips on board to turn around its defense. The defense went from No. 30 overall in 2010 to No. 2 this year in a remarkable turnaround.
Best Case
The Texans will need to figure out if they can afford to re-sign both Mario Williams and Arian Foster, as both are free agents in 2012. Foster is a restricted free agent. In addition, it would be great if all of their key injured players are able to return to 100 percent health during the offseason and come back ready to go for camp in 2012. There is a huge upside for this team, but they need to keep their main stars healthy to realize it.
Worst Case
As the playoffs arrive, and based on what happens, some egos might start to get bigger than others on the team. For now, there appears to be a quality running back by committee where Foster is the main guy but is more than adequately supported by Ben Tate. Hopefully for the Texans everyone is content with that arrangement as well next year, because the strong running attack helps to set up Matt Schaub and his passing attack.
The Texans hope Wade Phillips doesn't get hired away to be a head coach somewhere else. His dominating defense is a key to the Texans' short-term and long-term success.
Indianapolis Colts
14 of 32Overview
From 10-6 to 2-14, the Indianapolis Colts found out exactly what life was like without having Peyton Manning available to play all year.
For failing to have an adequate Plan B in place, general manager Bill Polian was fired, so it is clear that the Colts will be going in a new direction in 2012. Does that include Manning or not? Fair question. It would be considered a major surprise if the Colts don't invest their No. 1 overall draft pick in a quarterback unless they are overwhelmed by a huge offer.
Best Case
The best case would be if Manning and Andrew Luck (assuming he is drafted) can coexist on the roster for a few years. Manning teaches Luck the ropes for a year (possibly two) and either then retires, or the Colts trade him away for a big package of picks or other veteran help.
Once the Colts have figured out what to do with the quarterback situation, then they turn their attention to the big free agents they have, like Reggie Wayne and Robert Mathis.
Worst Case
Worst case is that the Colts put all of their eggs in the Manning basket and trade away the top pick to stockpile some significant draft picks. Manning then turns up not physically able to play, and the Colts are holding an empty basket again for the second straight year. That would be the worst-case scenario for me.
Jacksonville Jaguars
15 of 32Overview
The Jaguars and head coach Jack Del Rio were in a no-win situation as soon as the team decided to waive quarterback David Garrard. With little experience left on the roster, the team turned to rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert, and he proved to not be the answer.
It still remains to be seen if the Jaguars are confident that they have the right quarterback, so it would not be a surprise to see them invest a rather high draft pick in somebody that can come in and challenge Gabbert for the job.
The Jaguars are leaning towards hiring an offensive coordinator for their head coach job. Names like Mike Mularkey and Jay Gruden appear to be the front-runners as of now.
Best Case
The Jaguars either bring in a free-agent veteran quarterback or at least draft one in the middle rounds that has the ability to come into camp and challenge Blaine Gabbert for the job. The Jaguars also need better receivers to surround Gabbert, as his only true weapon on offense is Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars offense was ranked dead last in NFL in 2011, so they need to bring lots of offensive talent.
The defense was fine, as it was ranked No. 6 overall, a big jump from No. 28 the year before.
Worst Case
If the Jaguars go into 2012 with very little depth behind Gabbert, they could be in for a very long year. Gabbert possibly could mature in his second year, but there is also the real possibility that the happy feet condition he got when he started feeling pressure in the pocket (either real or imagined) is something that will never really go away.
Kansas City Chiefs
16 of 32Overview
The Chiefs suffered a number of key injuries this year, but that wasn't an acceptable excuse to save head coach Todd Haley's job, who was fired midseason. Interim head coach Romeo Crennel seemed to inspire the Chiefs and he may very well wind up with the job on a permanent basis.
The Chiefs saw their offense plunge from No. 12 in 2010 to No. 27 overall in 2011. That is basically a bottom-five offense, so until that is repaired the Chiefs are not going to be making much noise in the near future.
Best Case
That key injured players like RB Jamaal Charles and SS Eric Berry come back as close to 100 percent as is possible from their ACL surgeries, as well as that both Kyle Orton and Matt Cassel come back in 2012 to battle it out for the starting quarterback job. The competition makes them play at a higher level.
One of the key decisions in the offseason is what to do about free agent Dwayne Bowe. It would seem that the Chiefs need Bowe's big-play ability to serve as a complement to the running of Charles.
Worst Case
That players like Charles and Berry aren't able to make it all the way back and have either lost a step or just aren't the same. The Chiefs wind up with a quarterback dilemma between Kyle Orton and Matt Cassel. Another worst-case scenario is that the Chiefs make a reach again in the draft (they are looking at the No. 11 draft slot in the first round now), as they did last year with Jonathan Baldwin, who did not live up to expectations.
Miami Dolphins
17 of 32Overview
The Dolphins are in a bidding war with the St. Louis Rams to woo Jeff Fisher to become their next head coach. If they don't land Fisher, then who is next in line?
Despite the Dolphins playing much better in the second half of the season, their improved play wasn't enough to save head coach Tony Sparano's job. The Dolphins have now posted three straight losing seasons by going 6-10, 7-9 and 7-9. Longtime sack specialist Jayson Taylor is retiring after a long, productive career.
Best Case
Miami's offense appeared to play better in the second half of the year under Matt Moore, but is Moore really the answer? It would appear that the Dolphins need to find a better quarterback to spread the ball between Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall. Miami needs to improve its defense, which had been ranked as high as No. 6 in NFL in 2010 but went all the way down to No. 15 in 2011.
Worst Case
The Dolphins have paid a ton of money to keep defensive lineman Paul Soliai on the roster, but the return this year didn't come close to justifying the cost. Will the Dolphins simply let him walk via free agency, or will they place a franchise tag on him and pay through the nose once again?
The Dolphins bring back Moore to compete with Chad Henne for the starting quarterback, but due to the ceiling on both men, the Dolphins offense continues to hold the team back in 2012.
Minnesota Vikings
18 of 32Overview
The Vikings recently promoted Rick Spielman to become their general manager. Hopefully Spielman turns the franchise around, as they have seen their record plunge from 12-4 to 6-10 to 3-13 in a short two-year time span.
The Vikings hold the No. 3 pick in the 2012 NFL draft, so if either Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III is still on the board then, they could stand to make a potential killing (like the Browns did in 2011 draft by trading down with Atlanta) by swapping down with a team dying for a franchise QB.
Best Case
The Vikings are able to find a trade partner that desperately wants to move up into that No. 3 draft slot. They can then apply their extra draft picks to address the many team holes.
The biggest need right now appears to be on defense, where the defensive unit went from a No. 8 ranking in 2010 down to No. 21 in 2011, which is a significant drop. The drop might actually cost defensive coordinator Fred Pagac and DL coach Karl Dunbar their jobs, although nothing has been officially announced yet.
There is also talk about a potential switch to a 3-4 defensive scheme, so that is something for Vikings fans to keep an eye out for as the postseason continues.
Another best-case scenario would involve finding an upgrade over LT Charlie Johnson, which would allow the team to move him over to guard.
Worst Case
If both Luck and Griffin happen to come off the board with the first two picks, the Vikings better be prepared to draft whoever they think is the best player left on the board, because the phone could stop ringing quickly if both the top QBs are gone after two picks.
The Vikings need to get their secondary healthy again, so anybody not able to come back to full health from 2011 injuries will hurt the cause. It already appears that corner Cedric Griffin will not return since he cleaned out his team locker.
New England Patriots
19 of 32Overview
The Patriots earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC in the playoffs with a top-flight offense and a defense that was ranked No. 31 in the league. Just how far this strange combination of offense/defense works in the playoffs remains to be seen, but if the Patriots go one-and-out again (which would make it four straight playoff losses), you can bet there will be plenty of changes made to the defensive unit.
The offense under Tom Brady improved from No. 8 overall in 2010 to No. 2 in 2011.
Best Case
The Patriots need to pony up whatever money is needed to keep free agent WR Wes Welker in house. As one of the most natural targets for Tom Brady, Welker is essential for keeping the Patriots offense humming on all cylinders.
Bill Belichick will figure out a way to package some of his many extra draft picks that he has accumulated and package them together to nab a pass-rushing stud.
Worst Case
Patriots lose their offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, who just interviewed for the Penn State University head-coaching job. That would be a big blow to the offense.
Coming out of the draft without addressing key team needs (just like Belichick did in 2011) would be another worst-case scenario. Belichick likes to amass talented players but sometimes gets lost in trying to address team-specific needs (like pass rush, for example).
New Orleans Saints
20 of 32Overview
Where in the world would the New Orleans Saints be without Drew Brees? Brees has turned in an MVP-like season, and it would not be a surprise if he won the award.
The Saints have a high-powered offense that finished the 2011 season ranked No. 1 in the NFL. That should serve them well in the playoffs, even though they do not have a first-round bye or home-field advantage in the NFC divisional round.
Best Case
The Saints have to sign Drew Brees to another contract. It is almost impossible to think about the Saints team without picturing Brees running the offense. Another key decision will be free-agent lineman Carl Nicks, as he has been part of a strong offensive line that has only allowed 24 sacks on the year, tied for second-best in the NFL.
Worst Case
Would be if somehow the Saints and Brees weren't able to come to an agreement on a long-term deal and he left for another team via free agency. While there is a remote possibility that this scenario could happen, it is entirely unlikely based on how much Brees means to the Saints and vice versa.
The more realistic worst-case scenario is that some other team steps up and overpays to land Carl Nicks. That would have an immediate impact on the offense and Brees' ability to stand back in the pocket and find the open man.
New York Giants
21 of 32Overview
The New York Giants ended their recent playoff drought by coming up with clutch wins down the stretch against the New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys to claim the NFC East title. Eli Manning and Victor Cruz in particular stood out to bail the Giants out of both games with some long touchdowns.
The Giants were able to get into the playoffs as a 9-7 team but were denied last year with an even better record of 10-6. Go figure.
The Giants offense continues to play at a very high level. It has been ranked at No. 8, No. 5 and No. 8 overall for each of the last three years. That is impressive.
What is less impressive is the defensive unit, which has dropped from No. 7 all the way down to No. 27. That makes me wonder if Perry Fewell's job is safe. There is already a rumor floating that ex-Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo might be the Giants' new DC.
Best Case
The Giants offense appears to have the weapons in place to remain effective for years to come. The defense is the side of the ball that warrants attention not only in the draft, but via free agency as well. The secondary specifically needs to be addressed, so expect to see some changes in that area of the team in 2012.
Worst Case
That the nightmare of constant injuries that bit the Giants through the season continues on into 2012 as well. From Ahmad Bradshaw, Prince Amukamara, Mario Manningham and Jake Ballard to Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Hakeem Nicks, it seemed like the Giants were always playing short-handed through the year. Due to those injuries the Giants' depth was tested and gained some valuable playing time during the season.
New York Jets
22 of 32Overview
What exactly is going on with the New York Jets? Since they weren't able to live up to the guaranteed prediction of head coach Rex Ryan that they would be playing in the Super Bowl, it appears the very fabric of the team is falling apart at the seams.
QB Greg McElroy went on record this week claiming that the locker room isn't a fun place to be. He said that players didn't care if they won or lost as long as they had a good game individually. It shows how weak the Jets' team unity really is.
The news continues to get worse, as head coach Rex Ryan said that he lost the pulse of the team. Things might continue to unravel, as the Jets might blow up the offense by bringing someone in to challenge Mark Sanchez for the starting QB job or by encouraging offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to take a head coaching job somewhere else.
Best Case
Is there even a best-case scenario that makes sense right now? How about blow up the whole thing and start over again? The offense plummeted from No. 11 in 2010 to No. 25 in 2011. There is lots of finger-pointing and loss of confidence across the board, so this might not be a situation that will be fixed quickly or overnight.
Worst Case
More examples of just how bad the Jets' offensive woes are: According to this study done by ESPN, among WR/QB duos where the receiver was targeted at least 100 times, Mark Sanchez's 50.5 completion percentage to Santonio Holmes was the lowest in the league.
Holmes' attitude was an issue down the stretch, and there is the prospect that the Jets just might release him and look at other options. Things are getting uglier by the day in the Jets headquarters.
Bringing this whole collection of bad team chemistry together again for one last hurrah would be a terrible idea. Wholesale changes need to be made.
Oakland Raiders
23 of 32Overview
The Raiders suffered from the passing of their beloved owner Al Davis. Going forward, will the team bring in a new general manager to put a layer between head coach Hue Jackson and allowing him to make personnel decisions.
The offense carried the Raiders, but they were let down by their defense time and time again. As a result, the Raiders fired defensive coordinator Chuck Bresnahan and three of his assistant coaches.
Best Case
Do the Raiders bring back Jason Campbell to compete with Carson Palmer for the starting quarterback job, or do they let him walk in free agency? Quarterbacks appear to be at a premium in 2012 in light of decisions recently that Landry Jones and Matt Barkley will be returning to college for one more year. Do the Raiders think that Terrelle Pryor has the ability to step up and be a solid No. 2 quarterback behind Carson Palmer?
The Raiders get a healthy Darren McFadden back for the 2012 season. His injury did as much to derail the Raiders' playoff hopes as any other factor. The Raiders are said to be considering placing a franchise tag on free-agent running back Michael Bush.
Worst Case
The Raiders continue to focus on adding to the offense and don't do enough to upgrade the defense. The poor defensive play was evident in blown fourth-quarter leads to Buffalo, Detroit and San Diego.
Just how bad was the Raiders defense? The following are all franchise-worst records that were established by the 2011 Raiders defense: TD passes allowed (31), yards per carry (5.1), yards passing (4,262) and total yards (6,201). The 433 points allowed were the second-most in Raiders history.
Philadelphia Eagles
24 of 32Overview
The "dream team" of 2011 became a team that will bear watching in 2012, as the Eagles finally started to play more to their overall potential in the latter stages of the regular season ,when all of the pressure was off. The Eagles failed to reach the playoffs for the first time in the last four years under Andy Reid.
The offense is still performing at a very high level, as it was ranked No. 2 in 2010 and came back with a solid No. 4 in 2011.
The defense improved from No. 12 to No. 8, giving Philadelphia top-10 finishes on both sides of the ball. The Eagles probably need one solid offseason together to improve the overall chemistry, and then watch out. This could be a very dangerous team in 2012.
Best Case
For a fine overview of what the Eagles need to do, I refer you to this column by Geoff Mosher, which clearly spells out the top 10 things that Andy Reid needs to do in the offseason.
The Eagles have free agents in WR DeSean Jackson and LG Evan Mathis. Mathis is an "under the radar guy" but was named to Pro Football Focus' 2011 All-Pro Team. I suspect that the DeSean Jackson situation is the one that will command the most attention during the offseason.
There are similarities between Jackson and Philadelphia and Steve Johnson and the Bills. Both teams are somewhat leery of all the shenanigans these guys pull but are fully aware of the talent that both possess.
Worst Case
That the Eagles are able to add even more talent than they landed in 2011 because so many guys are "just dying to play with Michael Vick." The new talent will ratchet up the pressure once again to what was experienced in 2011 and make life unbearable for all parties concerned. That sounds like the worst-case scenario to me.
Pittsburgh Steelers
25 of 32Overview
The Pittsburgh Steelers were hoping that 12-4 would be good enough to win some home-field advantage in the AFC this year, or at least a first-round bye, but unfortunately that wasn't the case. Being swept by the Ravens put them in a big hole in the AFC North, one that they couldn't escape from.
Injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and James Harrison kept the Steelers from playing to their full potential, and the new injury to Rashard Mendenhall will limit the Steelers offense in the playoffs.
Best Case
The Steelers continue to keep their top-tier defense primed for 2012. The defense ended up 2010 ranked No. 2, and it actually improved that to being No. 1 in 2011. As long as the Steelers have this type of strong defense, the offense can score just enough points to keep them competitive and viable in the AFC North.
As far as free agency goes, the Steelers have a restricted free agent in wide receiver Mike Wallace, so you would think that the team would like to get him signed to a long-term contract and pay him what he is worth. He currently has been a bargain at $480,000 a year. Another free-agent decision is DE Aaron Smith.
Worst Case
The Steelers could very well lose some of their long-in-the-tooth veterans this offseason so will need to be able to replace them via the draft or free agency. The wide receiver corps is one of the saving components of the offense, so not being able to work out a deal with top receiver Mike Wallace would be the worst-case scenario.
San Diego Chargers
26 of 32Overview
The Chargers decided to retain head coach Norv Turner and GM A.J. Smith after all but did agree to dismiss defensive coordinator Greg Manusky. While the Chargers have only made the playoffs twice in the last four years under Turner, it is clear that 2012 will be a make-or-break year. If he fails to make the playoffs three years in a row, you know that he is history.
In 2010, the Chargers had the No. 1 overall rank in both offense and defense. In 2011, the defense dropped to No. 16, while the offense dropped to No. 6.
The Chargers announced today that they promoted LBs coach John Pagano to defensive coordinator. We will see who lasts longer on the job, Pagano or Turner, as this is Turner's fourth DC in his six years in San Diego.
Best Case
The Chargers work with Philip Rivers to get to the root of his midseason funk and remove that from his memory banks. That funk was as poorly as he has played in recent memory, but if it resurfaces for any reason in 2012, the Chargers will be in trouble. Finding a way to sign their free agents and still have enough cap space to keep Vincent Jackson long-term would also be positive.
Worst Case
Not coming to terms with wide receiver Vincent Jackson and letting him walk via free agency. The Chargers also have an expensive decision to make on oft-injured tackle Marcus McNeill, who is due $10.5 million in 2012. They might determine that his health isn't worth the financial risk.
San Francisco 49ers
27 of 32Overview
The San Francisco 49ers used the passion of head coach Jim Harbaugh and the improved play from their defense to complete a remarkable turnaround in one year. The defense jumped from No. 13 in 2010 to No. 4 in 2011, which helped to propel the team to a 13-3 record, quite a change from the 6-10 of 2010.
The offense, however, got slightly worse, dropping from No. 24 to No. 26. If anything holds them back in the playoffs, it will be the lack of offense that will haunt them.
Best Case
The 49ers maintain the current team on defense but undergo some changes on offense by adding new weapons via free agency and the draft. The 49ers also need to sign quarterback Alex Smith to a longer-term deal and know that they have their quarterback sewed up. In addition, the 49ers have to decide on free-agent corner Carlos Rogers. Do they bring him back or let him walk?
Worst Case
Not signing Smith to a longer-term deal would probably be the worst-case scenario. From all indications, Colin Kaepernick isn't ready yet to take over the offense, so it is imperative to sign Smith to a deal.
As well as Alex Smith performed this year, there is the possibility that the team could lose offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who is a finalist for the head coaching job at Penn State University. Smith appeared to grow by leaps and bounds in the past year, so you would like to keep some continuity
If Roman leaves for Penn State, there would probably be some degree of drop-off with a new offensive coordinator and different communication styles.
Seattle Seahawks
28 of 32Overview
The Seahawks repeated their 7-9 record from last year, but this time it wasn't good enough to get them into the playoffs. The Seahawks did play much better football down the second half of the season, so there is hope that they can carry some of that momentum into 2012.
The offense still needs work, however, as a dismal showing at No. 28 in the NFL in 2010 was followed up with another ranking at No. 28 in 2011. They simply need to add more weapons to the offense, which they hopefully can do in the draft. This time the Seahawks own the No. 12 overall pick.
We should note that the Seahawks defense made great strides in 2011, as it jumped all the way up from No. 27 last year to No. 9 in 2011. Significant gain.
Best Case
The Seahawks have a key free-agent decision pending on what to do with Marshawn Lynch. Lynch seemed to get more energized in the second half of the season, and the Seahawks seemed to pick up on his intensity. How much are they willing to risk in terms of dollars and years because of his running style and wear and tear on his body?
The team also needs to decide about free-agent TE John Carlson—do they bring him back or not? Another free agent to consider bringing back is DE Red Bryant.
Worst Case
The Seahawks don't add anyone else at quarterback to challenge Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job. It would be interesting to see the Seahawks go after somebody like a Matt Flynn and let the best man win the job. If they sit back and do nothing, the offense might continue to hover around that No. 28 ranking.
St. Louis Rams
29 of 32Overview
The Rams have now gone 1-15, 7-9 and 2-14 over the last three years. Long gone are the Kurt Warner-led teams that had Rams fans thinking Super Bowl. The Rams had the No. 31-ranked offense in the NFL, which means that they actually got worse in Sam Bradford's sophomore year.
As a result, the Rams fired both head coach Steve Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney. The Rams and Miami Dolphins are apparently in the running to hire Jeff Fisher as their head coach.
The Rams allowed 55 sacks this year, the most in the NFL. This has to be a major focal point for improvement in 2012.
Best Case
The Rams are able to hire Fisher, who brings stability and credibility to the organization. The Rams own the No. 2 pick in the draft, so unless they absolutely fall in love with a player that they feel they have to select at No. 2, their best best would be to trade down in the first round to a team in dire need of a franchise quarterback. This would be a repeat of what Cleveland did with Atlanta in the draft last year.
I just can't see the Rams investing in a QB with Bradford on the roster. That would simply be overkill.
Worst Case
The Rams don't get Fisher and have to settle for somebody they are less enamored with. It is also possible that the teams looking to trade up high in the first round will completely boycott the Rams because they know they aren't going to draft a QB with Bradford on the roster. They can let the Rams draft whatever player they have ranked highest on the board and then trade with the owners of the No. 3 overall pick, the Minnesota Vikings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30 of 32Overview
The Bucs began the 2011 season with a reasonable 4-2 record. Then the levee broke and the floodgates opened, as the Bucs proceeded to lose their final 10 games of the year to finish 4-12.
The long losing streak cost head coach Raheem Morris his job, even after he had turned the team around just the year before (took it from a 3-13 team to 10-6 in one year), but this is a league where you are asked, what have you done for me lately?
The Bucs saw their defense plunge from No. 17 in 2010 to No. 30 in 2011. The offense was not very impressive either, as it was ranked No. 21. Morris seemed to lose control over the team in the second half, and once things started to turn south, there was no stopping it from snowballing out of control.
Best Case
The Bucs find a coach that will be able to take control of the team and impose his beliefs and will.
The Bucs are in need of adding some serious weapons on the offense. If you look at their production from the season, you can see that they continually are falling short. Josh Freeman had only two games all year of 300-plus passing yards. The Bucs only had one receiver top 100 yards in pass receptions, and the team only had four games where a running back topped 100 yards in rushing.
Worst Case
The Bucs added some young talent to their defensive line, so they would be wise to now focus on adding some talent to the offensive side of the ball. We don't know who they plan to hire as the new head coach, but if it is a defensive-minded coach, the offense could be in more trouble in 2012.
Tennessee Titans
31 of 32Overview
The Tennessee Titans broke in their new head coach Mike Munchak, and they made a run late in the regular season at a wild-card berth but fell just short. The Titans improved under Munchak from 6-10 to 9-7, so things are looking up for the Titans franchise.
There was improvement across the board with the team, as the offense jumped from No. 27 to No. 17 and the defense improved from No. 26 to No. 18.
The Titans won't be drafting until No. 20 in the 2012 draft, so they have the final slot of the non-playoff teams.
Best Case
The Titans' plan right now is to open up the starting quarterback competition next year to both Jake Locker and Matt Hasselbeck and let the best man take the job. That should make for a healthy competition and bring out the best in both quarterbacks. The team also has a key free agent in corner Cortland Finnegan, so signing him will be a priority.
Worst Case
Whether the Titans' problems in the running game were due to inferior blocking up front or Chris Johnson's holdout causing him to report out of shape (is it possible that after four years of being pounded, he has actually lost a step?), the Titans need to address this area.
Whether they invest a high pick or two on the offensive line or find another back that can relieve Johnson enough to keep his legs fresh, the Titans need to do something to resurrect the running game.
Washington Redskins
32 of 32Overview
After a 8-8 finish in 2008, the Redskins haven't been close to a .500 team in the three years since, going 4-12, 6-10 and 5-11.
The Redskins need help at quarterback, so will they be able to come up with a package good enough to allow them to trade up into the top two or three picks of the draft and land the franchise quarterback that they need so badly? As it stands now, the Redskins are drafting in the No. 6 overall slot.
The defense moved up considerably in 2011, from No. 31 to No. 13 in just one year.
Best Case
The Redskins are able to swing a deal with one of the top two or three teams in the draft and move up to secure either Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III, whoever the Colts don't draft. Once they have their franchise quarterback identified, they can start filling out the rest of their holes.
The Redskins have two key free agents to address in the offseason, tight end Fred Davis and LB London Fletcher. Fletcher continues to play at a very high level, so it would be a major surprise if they don't bring him back.
It will be interesting to see if other teams go after Davis due to the suspension he received that ended his 2011 season. If no other team pursues him, the Redskins might be able to sign him to a cheap deal.
Worst Case
Some other team offers a better package than the Redskins do, and they miss out on nabbing one of the two stud quarterbacks in the draft. If that happens, they are then looking towards free agency or drafting a lesser quarterback in a later round. Maybe they bring back Jason Campbell if he leaves Oakland.
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