NFL Draft 2023: Latest Expert Mocks, Projections for Difficult 1st-Round Decisions
Mock drafts are an entertaining piece of the pre-draft puzzle, but they're rarely accurate beyond a few selections. Trades can quickly make the most carefully researched mock drafts irrelevant, and NFL teams can be unpredictable.
Most years, though, there is a consensus top quarterback or blue-chip defender who can get mock drafts going in the right direction. That isn't the case this year, where as many as four quarterback prospects—Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Alabama's Bryce Young, Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis—could be under consideration by the Carolina Panthers.
Carolina is only one of several teams facing difficult decisions early in Round 1. Here, we'll dive into some of the toughest decisions that lie ahead and examine what some expert mocks from around the web foretell.
Who Do the Panthers Take at No. 1?
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The Panthers are taking a quarterback. They wouldn't have coughed up the ninth and 61st picks in this year's draft, along with a 2024 first-rounder, a 2025 second-rounder and wideout D.J. Moore if they weren't.
However, there's still no telling which quarterback Carolina will select. Each of the top four prospects has a different selling point.
Stroud is the pro-ready, accurate pocket-passer, while Young is the undersized (5'10", 204 lbs) but dynamic playmaker. Richardson is an athletic marvel and dual-threat phenom, while Levis has a nice combination of physical upside, a strong arm and experience in a pro-style offense.
Chad Reuter of NFL Media and the Bleacher Report Scouting Department both have Carolina taking Stroud at No. 1 in their mocks. However, NFL Media draft analyst Lance Zierlein has the Panthers going with Young instead.
"There has been a lot of smoke around C.J. Stroud in this spot, but Young checks more boxes and makes more sense as a game-ready option for Frank Reich," Zierlein wrote.
If the Panthers fall in love with Richardson's physical talents—he ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6'4" and 244 pounds in Indianapolis—he could be in the mix as well. At this point, it's too close to call, though Stroud is probably the "safe" pick at the top.
What Do the Texans Do at No. 2?
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The Houston Texans need a quarterback, and they'll probably take one at No. 2 overall. According to ProFootballTalk's Peter King, however, Houston is no lock to take a signal-caller.
"in the last few days, I've heard this about Houston general manager Nick Caserio: Very conservative. If he doesn't love a quarterback at two, he's not going to force it," King wrote.
With Stroud off the board in the mocks of Reuter and the B/R Scouting Department, both have the Texans taking Young. However, in Zierlein's mock draft, the Texans pass on a quarterback and grab Texas Tech defensive lineman Tyree Wilson instead.
"If the Texans miss out on Young, they might not be a lock to take Stroud. With needs along the defensive front and two 2023 first-round picks, the choice could be between Wilson and Will Anderson Jr.," Zierlein wrote.
Anderson is the top-ranked prospect on the B/R Scouting Department's big board, but Wilson appears to be a rising prospect. It would be a bit surprising to see Houston pass on a chance to take its next quarterback of the future at No. 2, but the Texans do also have the No. 12 selection—acquired from the Cleveland Browns in the Deshaun Watson trade.
If Houston is indeed unsold on a quarterback at No. 2, taking a quality defender and picking up a developmental quarterback later in Round 1 would be a logical move.
Will Anyone Trade Up to No. 3?
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The Arizona Cardinals have a tough decision to make at No. 3 because they don't need a quarterback and could trade the selection.
According to NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah (h/t Buck Reising of A to Z Sports), both the Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7) and Tennessee Titans (No. 11) could be interested in moving up for a quarterback. The Seattle Seahawks (No. 5) could also be interested in moving up for an understudy behind Geno Smith.
"The buzz is that the Seahawks will jump up from No. 5 to No. 3 to grab either Richardson or Levis, as Stroud and Young are expected to go 1-2," The Athletic's Vic Tafur wrote.
Zierlein and the B/R Scouting Department both have the Cardinals staying put and taking Anderson at No. 3. However, Reuter has the Indianapolis Colts moving up one spot to snag Richardson.
"Richardson is the Josh Allen of this draft class: He misses some easier throws but possesses an overall passing and rushing skill set that will be tough to beat after a year or two of working with new Colts coach Shane Steichen," Reuter wrote.
ESPN's Todd McShay also has the Colts moving up one spot for Richardson in his mock draft.
Indy could be the team to move up, and Richardson could be the target. It's worth noting, though, that the Colts have also been linked to Levis.
"Will Levis and the Colts, there is a little bit of buzz leaguewide about that pairing at No. 4 overall," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler said on SportsCenter.
Arizona's ability to auction off the third pick may hinge on which players go No. 1 and No. 2. The only thing we know for certain right now is that anything could happen at the top of Round 1.
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