Predicting Each MLB Team's Most Valuable Player in 2023
We are 11 days into the 2023 Major League Baseball season, which is the equivalent of one game into an NFL season. That's super early for sweeping reactions and proclamations, but it's never too early for prognostications on who will end the year as the most valuable player on each of the 30 teams.
For each team MVP selection, we'll list the stats accumulated thus far in 2023, but these selections are much more about predicting who will be most valuable for the next six months than trying to analyze what has transpired in the past week and a half.
Having said that, there are a handful of cases—perhaps most notably in Milwaukee, Minnesota and New York (Queens, not Bronx)—where the pick is already different from what it would have been in the preseason, both because the current pick is thriving and because the previous one is not.
If you're curious about a positional breakdown, hitters (21) outnumber pitchers (10)* by a more than 2-to-1 ratio for the same reason that hitters drastically outnumber pitchers in the history of AL/NL MVP awards: Hitters are more ever-present and simply feel more valuable than pitchers who take the mound every fifth or sixth day. Furthermore, among the hitters, we've got eight outfielders, five first basemen, four shortstops, two third basemen, a catcher and a DH. (Sorry, second basemen.)
MVP selections are broken up by division and listed alphabetically by location within each division, starting in the AL East. Statistics are current through the start of play Sunday.
*Counting Shohei Ohtani in both categories
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C
.313/.421/.406, 1 HR, 5 RBI
If Cedric Mullins (2 HR, 4 SB) messes around and racks up 30 home runs and 60 stolen bases, he can certainly reclaim the title of "MVP of Baltimore" that he held in 2021. But calling up Rutschman is what sparked Baltimore's turnaround last season. The second-year backstop wasted no time in defending his team-leading role by going 5-for-5 with a homer on Opening Day.
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers, 3B
.343/.361/.771, 4 HR, 9 RBI
At least the guy Boston was able to sign to a long-term deal is doing his thing thus far. Adam Duvall has gotten out to a hotter start for the Red Sox, but does anyone seriously expect that to continue, considering he hit .213 last year and hasn't been an All-Star since 2016? Devers has gotten AL MVP votes in three of the past four seasons, and for Boston to contend in this year's AL East, it's going to need its $331 million man to keep shining.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge, OF
.310/.400/.552, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB
Gleyber Torres has gotten out to a phenomenal start for the Bronx Bombers, as has Gerrit Cole with two early gems. But the reigning AL MVP has multiple home runs and multiple stolen bases already under his belt, so there's not much debate here. Judge homered in his first plate appearance of the season, unofficially announcing his intention to win back-to-back trophies.
Tampa Bay Rays: Shane McClanahan, LHP
2-0, 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.0 K/9
With a gigantic honorable mention to red-hot shortstop Wander Franco, the choice here is the southpaw who has already delivered a pair of quality starts after anchoring the starting rotation last year. McClanahan had an impressive rookie campaign in 2021, broke out in a big way in 2022 and appears to be gearing up for yet another All-Star Game appearance. (As one of many Rays on that ASG roster, the way things are looking early.)
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
.444/.512/.639, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1 SB
Say this much for Guerrero: He does not mess around in April. While almost winning AL MVP in 2021, he hit seven home runs and had a 1.153 OPS. Last year, he had five home runs within his first eight games. And now he's evidently seeing the ball better than ever, looking like an early candidate for the AL batting crown. With each passing day, Toronto's inability to sign this man to a long-term deal just gets more costly.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: Dylan Cease, RHP
1-0, 11.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 14.3 K/9
When he's not handing out free passes, Cease is arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball. Through two starts, he has 18 strikeouts against just three hits allowed. However, he walked five batters in his second start, which has been an Achilles' heel throughout his now five-year MLB career. The White Sox are relying heavily upon him to guide them back to the postseason after a disappointing 81-81 record in 2022.
Cleveland Guardians: José Ramírez, 3B
.297/.395/.459, 2 SB, 1 3B, 4 RBI
A lot of these selections are naturally open to debate, but not so much here. Ramírez has been right up there with Mike Trout and Mookie Betts among the most valuable hitters in baseball dating back to 2016, and the Guardians third baseman is still 30 years young. While nowhere near the blistering hot start he had last year—.436 AVG, 4 HR, 19 RBI through 10 games—Ramírez has been solid out of the gates.
Detroit Tigers: Riley Greene, OF
.290/.353/.452, 1 HR, 1 SB, 1 3B
Detroit is certainly paying Miguel Cabrera ($32 million) and/or Javier Báez ($22 million) to be its MVP, but it's this second-year phenom on what is basically a league-minimum salary ($727,800) who might be able to keep the Tigers from losing 100 games this season. Greene was supposed to be a huge piece of the puzzle last season, but a broken foot postponed his debut until mid-June and he never quite became the star we were hoping to see. Now is his time to shine.
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., SS
.161/.235/.355, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB
No one is currently hitting well for Kansas City, but Witt is the young star the Royals are hoping will help lead them back to something resembling relevance. Witt hit 20 home runs and stole 30 bases last year as a rookie, albeit with a .294 on-base percentage. If and when he gets that up into the .350 range, the promise of being the highest-rated prospect in baseball heading into last season will be realized.
Minnesota Twins: Pablo López, RHP
1-0, 12.1 IP, 0.73 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 11.7 K/9
In trading 2022 AL batting champ Luis Arraez to Miami for López, Minnesota sent a clear message that it is prioritizing pitching in 2023. And thus far, López has done an excellent job as the ace of this 6-2 team, shutting down both the Royals and Marlins. (Though, the bullpen imploded after he went seven strong innings in Miami.) He's scheduled to face the White Sox and Yankees in his next two turns through the rotation, where he can really prove his worth to the Twins.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez, OF/DH
.310/.400/.655, 3 HR, 14 RBI
Alvarez is already crushing moonshots, and with 14 RBI in eight games, he is currently on pace to drive in 252 this season. So, you know, don't blame him for Houston's 3-6 start to the season. The 25-year-old slugger is more than holding up his end of the bargain for the reigning World Series champions. But with Jose Altuve out, Alex Bregman batting .139 and Jeremy Peña only slightly better at .179, it's kind of a miracle that Alvarez has even been in a position to amass 14 RBI.
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH
.321/.424/.607, 2 HR, 6 RBI
1-0, 12.0 IP, 0.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13.5 K/9
Thus far, Mike Trout has been the marginally better hitter of the two Angels superstars. But Trout hasn't given them a pair of quality starts with an even higher strikeout rate than usual. It's always unfair to even try to compare anyone to Ohtani in terms of total value added, but especially right now when you can make the case for him as both the best pitcher and the best hitter in the big leagues. But will this be the year Los Angeles finally posts a winning record with him on the roster?
Oakland A's: Seth Brown, OF
.200/.250/.367, 1 HR, 1 SB, 2 RBI
Could make the case for Trevor May here, as he is the highest-paid Oakland player at $7 million and was credited with both of the team's wins thus far. But it was Brown who led the team in home runs, RBI and stolen bases one year ago, and it will be Brown who is tasked with more or less carrying the offense this season, as well.
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodríguez, CF
.300/.349/.550, 2 HR, 3 SB, 4 RBI
It's hard to believe it has barely been one full calendar year since Rodríguez made his MLB debut on April 8, 2022, and almost harder to believe that he batted .206 with no home runs last April before taking the world by storm. The 2022 AL ROY has gotten out to a much more impressive start to year No. 2 in the big leagues with six multi-hit performances in Seattle's first nine games. Shout out to Luis Castillo on two scoreless starts to open the season, but J-Rod is the M's rock.
Texas Rangers: Jacob deGrom, RHP
1-0, 9.2 IP, 5.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 16.8 K/9
Jacob deGrom's Texas debut against Philadelphia was far from what the Rangers had in mind when they gave him $185 million. Start No. 2 against Baltimore, though? Oh yeah. That was the good stuff. Texas allowed 4.6 runs per game last season, and while it brought in more than just deGrom to fix that problem, the former Mets ace will be the face of whatever this pitching staff manages to do in 2023.
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National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr., OF
.282/.364/.487, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 SB
We'll never know for sure whether the uncharacteristically poor slugging in 2022 was related to his rapid return from a torn ACL, but what we do know is that early 2023 Acuña looks like the NL MVP candidate of yore. No combo meals (HR and SB in the same game) yet this season, but it's hard to argue with two four-baggers and four stolen bags in the early going.
Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara, RHP
1-0, 14.2 IP, 1.84 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 4.3 K/9
Had there been a "Who throws the first complete-game shutout?" prop bet in the preseason, how massive of a favorite would Alcantara have been? And how glorious was it that his nine-inning gem against the Twins took under two hours to complete? The reigning NL Cy Young recipient also pitched well in the season opener against the Mets before unraveling a bit in the sixth inning. If only he was Shohei Ohtani and could provide his own run support to make up for Miami's woeful offense...
New York Mets: Pete Alonso, 1B
.235/.333/.706, 5 HR, 10 RBI
A month ago—before all the injuries and before seeing how guys would fare early in the regular season—you reasonably could have rolled a 10-sided die to choose the most important Met. But with three key guys sidelined and several others just not performing well thus far, it sure is looking like the slugger on pace for 90 home runs is the brightest star of the bunch. Alonso led the majors in home runs (53) in 2019 and led the majors in RBI (131) in 2022. He might double dip on those fronts this year.
Philadelphia Phillies: Trea Turner, SS
.343/.378/.486, 2 3B, 2 RBI, 1 SB
No home runs yet for Turner, who also has been surprisingly inactive on the basepaths thus far. But the Phillies' new leadoff hitter is still doing his job quite well with a solid on-base percentage. It's worth noting that Turner also started slow in the HR/SB departments last year with one and five, respectively, in his first 32 games before putting up MVP-caliber numbers the rest of the way. And considering how well he mashed between the World Baseball Classic and spring training, it shouldn't be long before he heats up.
Washington Nationals: MacKenzie Gore, LHP
2-0, 11.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.5 K/9
The two main players the Nationals got (Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz) for trading away Trea Turner and Max Scherzer in 2021 and the two main players they got (MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams) for trading away Juan Soto and Josh Bell last year are the building blocks for the future. And the southpaw in the starting rotation looks to be the most solid block of all. Gore held Atlanta to one run and limited Colorado (in Coors Field) to two runs in winning each of his first two starts for Washington.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: Dansby Swanson, SS
.429/.515/.500, 9 R, 3 RBI, 1 SB
Similar to Trea Turner at Philadelphia, no home runs yet for this shortstop who became a very rich man this offseason, but he's certainly getting on base a ton. Swanson has 12 hits and has drawn five walks through his first seven games with the Cubs, spending an inordinate amount of time in scoring position. His 2022 Gold Glove has also made its way to Wrigley Field, going a perfect 30-for-30 on fielding chances thus far.
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Lodolo, LHP
1-0, 12.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 15.8 K/9
Both at the MLB level and in its farm system, Cincinnati has a lot of intriguing talent under the age of 28. This isn't a postseason team in 2023, but it could be a serious contender by 2026. Maybe sooner than that if Lodolo and Co. keep pitching this well. The second-year left-hander went seven scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts Saturday against the Phillies—only to watch the bullpen give away his gem in the ninth.
Milwaukee Brewers: Brandon Woodruff, RHP
1-0, 11.1 IP, 0.79 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9.5 K/9
Before the season, Corbin Burnes would've been the choice for MVP of Milwaukee, but with Woodruff also strongly considered. And after Burnes has been shelled twice to the tune of a 9.64 ERA and 1.71 WHIP, we've got to at least temporarily pass the torch to Woodruff. In 72 starts dating back to the start of 2020, Woodruff has a 2.78 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 10.9 K/9 rate. Burnes keeps finishing ahead of him in the NL Cy Young votes, but this might finally be the year Woodruff gets nationally recognized as the ace he has long been.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds, CF
.424/.432/1.000, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 2 SB
Well, if Reynolds is still on the trade block, congratulations to the Pirates on all of the blockbuster trade offers headed their way this summer. Because if we had to declare an MLB MVP for the first 10 days of the season, Reynolds would be the clear choice. The 28-year-old outfielder has been simply en fuego, going on a five-game tear with eight extra-base hits (11 total hits) and 12 RBI. If he stays hot while Pittsburgh inevitably cools off, say hello to this year's Juan Soto.
St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
.357/.500/.536, 1 HR, 1 SB
Goldy sputtered to the finish line of his 2022 NL MVP season, batting .243 with no home runs over his final 21 games. But he is back on fire early in his quest to defend that title, reaching base in every other trip to the plate. Goldschmidt opened the 2023 campaign with four consecutive multi-hit performances. RBI opportunities have been few and far between, but those will come soon enough.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, OF
.257/.278/.457, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 5 SB
Arizona stole a page from Atlanta's playbook, giving Carroll an eight-year, $111 million contract after just 32 games played at the MLB level. But given the way he has been hitting and running since the beginning of last season in the minor leagues, it's not hard to see why. This 22-year-old is going to be one of the game's brightest stars in short order and is arguably already the most important player on this roster.
Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron, 1B
.258/.303/.613, 3 HR, 7 RBI
For $182 million, the Rockies would certainly like Kris Bryant to be their MVP. And he is at least hitting for average thus far in 2023. But Cron has been the star for the past two years, leading Colorado in both home runs and RBI in 2021 and 2022. And he is well on his way to repeating that feat again this season, racking up all the homers and RBI listed above within his first three games played.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Freddie Freeman, 1B
.429/.524/.629, 1 HR, 2 RBI
Could also go with any of Mookie Betts, Julio Urías or Dustin May here, but Freeman is already looking great for a sixth consecutive season finishing top 10 in the NL MVP vote. Similar to St. Louis' Paul Goldschmidt, there haven't been many RISP situations thus far for Freeman, but he is getting on base at what is—even by his lofty standards—a ridiculous rate. He led the NL with a .407 OBP last season and has been 117 points better than that early on.
San Diego Padres: Xander Bogaerts, SS
.333/.425/.697, 3 HR, 8 RBI
Like the Dodgers, plenty of candidates in San Diego. However, the Padres' newest star has been its brightest by far through nine games, leading the team in hits, homers, RBI, AVG and OBP. Bogaerts is at least tied for the team lead in several other categories, too. No regrets thus far on that $280 million contract, and it should be fun to watch the top four in this order once Fernando Tatis Jr. is reinstated and once Manny Machado and Juan Soto both heat up.
San Francisco Giants: Logan Webb, RHP
0-2, 11.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 13.1 K/9
We end this exercise with the player who has gotten out to probably the worst start out of the 30 team MVPs. But given how well Webb has pitched over the past two seasons, it seems safe to assume he'll bounce back from allowing four earned runs in back-to-back starts against the Yankees and White Sox. Besides, there aren't any other great options for the Giants, unless you think Thairo Estrada (12-for-29) is actually going to flirt with a batting crown.
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